[Coop]

Only 18 percent of Republicans said they would vote for someone else. But 72 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of independents said they didn't want Bush to have a second term.

Okay. So according to this poll 82% of Pubbies, 51% of indies, and 28% of Dems can reasonably expect to vote for President Bush at this stage. The AZ SecState shows voter registration as of Jul 03 to be:

GOP - 916.2K
Dem - 782.4K
Lib - 14.9K
Oth - 499K

Based on these numbers, and assuming equal turnout among all groups, Bush could be expected to pull 82% of 916K (751K) plus 28% of 782K (219K) plus 51% of 514K (262K) for a total of 1,232K votes if all those polled actually voted.

Over 1.23 million presumed votes in a state with a total registration of 2.21 million votes. In 2000 Bush beat Gore and Nader's combined total by about 50K votes (781K to 730K). I don't really see where this poll shows trouble for President Bush.

[Coop]

To be more precise in Post #9, 781.6K votes out of 1,532K votes cast in AZ in 2000 = 51%. The presumed numbers of 1.23 mil out of 2.21 mil = 56%.

Editorials passed off as news, in my book.

[KC_Conspirator]

That is very good analysis and makes the point clear that this poll is not very accurate.