[Sabertooth]

A vote for Bustamante is a vote for Bustamante and his positions.

A vote for McClintock is a vote for McClintock and his positions.

A vote for Schwarzenegger is a vote for Schwarzenegger and his positions.

Etc...

[strela]

"Only 60 percent"

And pigs could fly if they had 60 percent less body weight and 60 percent more wing surface.

[gridlock]

If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

And if my Grandmother had wheels, she would be a bicycle!"

The only way 60% of Ahnold's support would go to McClintock is if Ahnold withdraws and endorses him. And then of the remaining, 20% would still vote for Ahnold because they didn't get the memo, and 20% will vote for Bustamante, because they could never, ever vote for a "R" who means it. Ahnold would be there one and only "R" vote in a lifetime.

Result: McClintock still loses.

[William McKinley]

I would rather have McClintock than Arnold, but...

If only 60%

"If only" and "60%"?

Somehow, those phrases do not mesh. "If only" works if we are talking about a small number, not a substantial majority.

[capt. norm]

I think we've all pretty much gone on record as to how this thing will go down.

Some of us ae going to really be ambarassed after going a bit too far out on a limb.

I've seen a lot of "high altitude pie" being distributed as to how Mc Clintock could win. The whole issue will soon be settled and we'll see who got it right.

[tallhappy]

Correction. The most recent poll is a Public Policy Institute (PPIC) poll. Not Field poll.

A freeper did accurately post its results, as linked above, but mistakenly called it a field poll.

[Afronaut]

Can someone show me a poll that had Bush winning by a few hundred Votes?

Why have an election when you can just have a poll?

[southernnorthcarolina]

Real Clear Politics was Real Wrong in 2000 (far too optimistic on Bush's chances). I don't recall seeing much of them in 2002; I assume they were so discredited that they were in hiding.

I find it interesting that there have been at least three different FReeper polls. Each time, McClintock jumps out to a big lead, and then Arnold starts gaining. Of course, he never takes the lead, because the slate is wiped clean, and a new poll is begun. Now that the gap has been closed to 48-44, it's time for a new one to be started!

If McClintock can't win a majority of FReepers, what chance has he to win the election? His continued presence in the race will serve to deliver a win to Bustamonte on a silver platter.

[chilepepper]

what a clown...

McClintock is Hillary's puppet. He is *NOT* a Republican, since in order to belong to a party you need to become part of a team, and McClintock is *NOT* a team player. He has no political future at all, so perhaps his game plan is to keep some of the money the Democrats are siphoning over to him via the corrupt Indian tribe gambling money in order to insure Bustamante's victory in October, and from there, Hillary's victory in 2004...

[EggsAckley]

ping

[Cicero]

The bone that sticks in our throats is Arnold's pro-abortion, pro-perversion position. These issues are simply too serious to be compromised. If necessary, I'd be willing to support a moderate RINO who was not committed to killing babies rather than elect someone like Bustamente. But I won't compromise on baby killing, and I'm sure there's a large conservative core in California that will never vote for Arnold.

It's been proved again and again, by Riordan only a couple of years ago, and by Bob Dole earlier. California conservatives will not support a pro-abort RINO.

The 2002 election showed that there is widespread support for the pro-life position in most parts of the country. Wake up, Karl Rove. If the country clubbers want to win, they must concede this issue.

[Uncle Miltie]

60% of Schwazenegger voters won't show up to the polls if he drops out. The 25 year old pierced Jiffy Lube employee isn't going to show for McClintock. He will show for the Terminator.

Sadly, this is not about public policy. It is about celebrity.

[XJarhead]

That's the best argument for voting for McClintock -- that this is a unique election that gives a true conservative a chance to win.

Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen. Another dynamic may be that if McClintock started polling well and beating Arnold, some of Arnold's other support -- from Dems and centrists -- may go to Bustamonte because they don't want to see McClintock win. If Arnold collapses, that turns it into a two candidate race, and that makes it tougher for McClintock. You can't change one variable and assume that the race dynamics stay the same.

But like I said, you present the best argument for supporting McClintock at this stage. I'm not quite sure why your post is generating the antipathy coming its way.

[pogo101]

I dunno. FR types could "switch" -- bear in mind that such folks are generally polling for McClintock already -- without it making much difference.

And with no disrespect intended, it's virtually unheard of for 60% of candidate A's supporters to go over to candidate B, when they are rivals and when the "switch" is to occur within only a few weeks, without time for the rivalry's wounds to heal. Months, maybe, but weeks? Very rare.

If Tom is within the margin of error of reliable polls on Oct. 7, I will vote for him. I also will vote for him if Arnold has dropped or, due to some new scandal, is dropping fast as of that date.

But if, as I suspect, Arnold is close to Cruz on Oct. 7 and Tom still languishes far behind, I am not going to make the leap of faith you propose. I would if this were a primary. It isn't. I must stop Cruz.

[nina0113]

Just one teeny little problem - much of Arnold's support is crossover Democrats who will never, no never, vote for McClintock.

I like McClintock too, or did until he put his ego in front of his principles. It's 4th and 20 on the 25 in California. You CAN'T HAVE the touchdown. You might get the field goal. Or you can lose entirely.

.

[NittanyLion]

I suspect 1/3 of Arnold voters would stay home, 1/3 would vote for McClintock because they're Republicans, and the remaining 1/3 would vote for Bustamante because Arnold's views more closely mirror Cruz' than they mirror McClintock's.

[AmishDude]

What makes you think that Bustamante will get less than 40%? Despite the polls, it's impossible for a Democrat to actually get vote totals as low as his. When push comes to shove, the RATs will pull the RAT lever.

[george wythe]

When Californians are given the choice between Bustamante and McClintock, they choose Bustamante.

For example, consider this pollreleased September 9, 2003. The poll was conducted by Baselice & Associates, Inc., September 1-4, 2003 among 1,005 likely voters. According to the poll commissioned by California Chamber of Commerce:

If both Ueberroth and McClintock drop out, Schwarzenegger will win over Bustamante.

If both Schwarzenegger and McClintock drop out, Ueberroth will tie with Bustamante.

If both Schwarzenegger and Ueberroth drop out, McClintock will lose to Bustamante.

California Chamber of Commerce

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall
relection for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices) 

49% Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican
42% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
6%   Undecided / refused (vol)
__________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)

43% Peter Ueberroth, Republican
43% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
*   Other names (vol)
4%  Would not vote (vol)
9%  Undecided / refused (vol)
_________________________________________________________________________

For which one of the following candidates would you vote if the recall 
election for Governor was
just between the following two candidates? 
(Randomize choices)
 
41% Tom McClintock, Republican
47% Cruz Bustamante, Democrat
1%  Other names (vol)
3%  Would not vote (vol)
8%  Undecided / refused (vol)

[Republic Rocker]

Way too Tall Happy!

Thinking that 60% of the Arnold supporters would switch votes at the zero hour is hopeless. You would need more conviction prior to that.

It seems that you are also underestimating the Arnold voter as if they are all false chad pushers. You need to reconsider that analogy.

Many of Arnold's support comes from the right that finds itself more balanced on social issues. And all this "IF you do not represent the hard right you are not truely a republican" is crap and is dividing the party in my opinion.

Its people like you that will once again cause us to divide and get Mecha Man elected.

And I will hold the likes of you responsible Happy Tall one....

[finnman69]

Your assumption that McClintock would pick up 60% of Arnold's vote if he dropped out is deeply flawed. Even if McClintock picked up 60% of Arnold's support,(I don't think he would pick up nearly that much), your remaining 40% is still out there for Bustamente to pick up, kicking him up to 40% from 30% with a 40-30 win over McClintock.