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“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor
9-22-03

Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: bustamante; californiarecall; mcclintock; schwarzenegger; switch
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1 posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:25 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: tallhappy



A vote for Bustamante is a vote for Bustamante and his positions.

A vote for McClintock is a vote for McClintock and his positions.

A vote for Schwarzenegger is a vote for Schwarzenegger and his positions.

Etc...


2 posted on 09/22/2003 7:32:51 AM PDT by Sabertooth (No Drivers' Licences for Illegal Aliens. Petition SB60. http://www.saveourlicense.com/n_home.htm)
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To: tallhappy
"Only 60 percent"

And pigs could fly if they had 60 percent less body weight and 60 percent more wing surface.

3 posted on 09/22/2003 7:33:53 AM PDT by strela (I wonder if Tom McClintock will have to "make a reservation" to pay back all that money?)
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To: tallhappy
If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

And if my Grandmother had wheels, she would be a bicycle!"

The only way 60% of Ahnold's support would go to McClintock is if Ahnold withdraws and endorses him. And then of the remaining, 20% would still vote for Ahnold because they didn't get the memo, and 20% will vote for Bustamante, because they could never, ever vote for a "R" who means it. Ahnold would be there one and only "R" vote in a lifetime.

Result: McClintock still loses.

4 posted on 09/22/2003 7:35:20 AM PDT by gridlock (All I need to know about Islam I learned on 9/11/01)
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To: strela
Actually not since they don't have any wing surface to begin with.

Big difference.
5 posted on 09/22/2003 7:36:03 AM PDT by Bikers4Bush
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To: Sabertooth; tallhappy
BUMP to you both.
6 posted on 09/22/2003 7:36:43 AM PDT by 4Freedom (America is no longer the 'Land of Opportunity', it's the 'Land of Illegal Alien Opportunists'!!!)
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To: tallhappy
I would rather have McClintock than Arnold, but...
If only 60%
"If only" and "60%"?

Somehow, those phrases do not mesh. "If only" works if we are talking about a small number, not a substantial majority.

7 posted on 09/22/2003 7:38:02 AM PDT by William McKinley (http://williammckinley.blogspot.com)
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To: tallhappy
I think we've all pretty much gone on record as to how this thing will go down.

Some of us ae going to really be ambarassed after going a bit too far out on a limb.

I've seen a lot of "high altitude pie" being distributed as to how Mc Clintock could win. The whole issue will soon be settled and we'll see who got it right.

8 posted on 09/22/2003 7:40:01 AM PDT by capt. norm (You have the right to remain silent. Anything you say will be misquoted, then used against you.)
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Correction. The most recent poll is a Public Policy Institute (PPIC) poll. Not Field poll.

A freeper did accurately post its results, as linked above, but mistakenly called it a field poll.

9 posted on 09/22/2003 7:41:19 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: tallhappy
Can someone show me a poll that had Bush winning by a few hundred Votes?

Why have an election when you can just have a poll?

10 posted on 09/22/2003 7:41:19 AM PDT by Afronaut (How can you vote for a Liberal?)
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To: tallhappy
Real Clear Politics was Real Wrong in 2000 (far too optimistic on Bush's chances). I don't recall seeing much of them in 2002; I assume they were so discredited that they were in hiding.

I find it interesting that there have been at least three different FReeper polls. Each time, McClintock jumps out to a big lead, and then Arnold starts gaining. Of course, he never takes the lead, because the slate is wiped clean, and a new poll is begun. Now that the gap has been closed to 48-44, it's time for a new one to be started!

If McClintock can't win a majority of FReepers, what chance has he to win the election? His continued presence in the race will serve to deliver a win to Bustamonte on a silver platter.

11 posted on 09/22/2003 7:42:10 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Yes, but other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?")
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To: gridlock
Result: McClintock still loses.

As does Schwarzenegger as well.

12 posted on 09/22/2003 7:42:20 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: tallhappy
what a clown...

McClintock is Hillary's puppet. He is *NOT* a Republican, since in order to belong to a party you need to become part of a team, and McClintock is *NOT* a team player. He has no political future at all, so perhaps his game plan is to keep some of the money the Democrats are siphoning over to him via the corrupt Indian tribe gambling money in order to insure Bustamante's victory in October, and from there, Hillary's victory in 2004...

13 posted on 09/22/2003 7:43:52 AM PDT by chilepepper (The map is not the territory -- Alfred Korzybski)
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To: BibChr; onyx; PhiKapMom; Tamsey; redlipstick; habs4ever; My2Cents; South40; ...
ping
14 posted on 09/22/2003 7:44:38 AM PDT by EggsAckley (..........I *LOVE* hitting the abuse button...............)
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To: southernnorthcarolina
Real Clear Politics was Real Wrong in 2000 (far too optimistic on Bush's chances).

Yes. Same dynamic and same people saying only Schwarzenegger can win are in the same boat.

They are far too optimistic about Schwarzenegger's chances.

15 posted on 09/22/2003 7:44:51 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: strela
Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?
16 posted on 09/22/2003 7:45:38 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: gridlock
Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?
17 posted on 09/22/2003 7:45:58 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: William McKinley
Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?
18 posted on 09/22/2003 7:46:17 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: capt. norm
Does McClintock more reflect your values and opions or does Schwarzenegger?
19 posted on 09/22/2003 7:46:33 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: tallhappy
The bone that sticks in our throats is Arnold's pro-abortion, pro-perversion position. These issues are simply too serious to be compromised. If necessary, I'd be willing to support a moderate RINO who was not committed to killing babies rather than elect someone like Bustamente. But I won't compromise on baby killing, and I'm sure there's a large conservative core in California that will never vote for Arnold.

It's been proved again and again, by Riordan only a couple of years ago, and by Bob Dole earlier. California conservatives will not support a pro-abort RINO.

The 2002 election showed that there is widespread support for the pro-life position in most parts of the country. Wake up, Karl Rove. If the country clubbers want to win, they must concede this issue.
20 posted on 09/22/2003 7:46:57 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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