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Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
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And pigs could fly if they had 60 percent less body weight and 60 percent more wing surface.
And if my Grandmother had wheels, she would be a bicycle!"
The only way 60% of Ahnold's support would go to McClintock is if Ahnold withdraws and endorses him. And then of the remaining, 20% would still vote for Ahnold because they didn't get the memo, and 20% will vote for Bustamante, because they could never, ever vote for a "R" who means it. Ahnold would be there one and only "R" vote in a lifetime.
Result: McClintock still loses.
If only 60%"If only" and "60%"?
Somehow, those phrases do not mesh. "If only" works if we are talking about a small number, not a substantial majority.
Some of us ae going to really be ambarassed after going a bit too far out on a limb.
I've seen a lot of "high altitude pie" being distributed as to how Mc Clintock could win. The whole issue will soon be settled and we'll see who got it right.
A freeper did accurately post its results, as linked above, but mistakenly called it a field poll.
Why have an election when you can just have a poll?
I find it interesting that there have been at least three different FReeper polls. Each time, McClintock jumps out to a big lead, and then Arnold starts gaining. Of course, he never takes the lead, because the slate is wiped clean, and a new poll is begun. Now that the gap has been closed to 48-44, it's time for a new one to be started!
If McClintock can't win a majority of FReepers, what chance has he to win the election? His continued presence in the race will serve to deliver a win to Bustamonte on a silver platter.
As does Schwarzenegger as well.
McClintock is Hillary's puppet. He is *NOT* a Republican, since in order to belong to a party you need to become part of a team, and McClintock is *NOT* a team player. He has no political future at all, so perhaps his game plan is to keep some of the money the Democrats are siphoning over to him via the corrupt Indian tribe gambling money in order to insure Bustamante's victory in October, and from there, Hillary's victory in 2004...
Yes. Same dynamic and same people saying only Schwarzenegger can win are in the same boat.
They are far too optimistic about Schwarzenegger's chances.
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