Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
Who are these people?
Schwarzenegger doesn't drop pot in this scenario.
Conservatives simply decide not to vote for him on election day and vote for McClintock. Because of the ususual nature of this election, the Democrat candidate, Bustamante, will not garner as large a percentage of the votes as he would in a regular general election.
It is the October 8 Silent Surprise.
Metrosexual Arnold.
Don't mistake my opinion over what the reality is as being happy that things are the way they are. But to hope that a majority of another's support will change their minds in a period of two or three weeks just doesn't sound to me like a realistic hope.
Do The Math.
If you represent 60% of the Schwarzenegger voters he can win.
In a general election you would be right.
This recall is anomalous.
Do the math. It would be a silent suprise. 60% of the people now voting for Schwarzenegger switch silently on election to McClintock.
The world would be stunned.
If he can't get elected, they won't make any difference.
SOmetimes when the grocery store is out of my favorite food item, I have to accept something lesser or go hungry...it's just that simple.
Unfortunately, I don't think that's going to happen. Another dynamic may be that if McClintock started polling well and beating Arnold, some of Arnold's other support -- from Dems and centrists -- may go to Bustamonte because they don't want to see McClintock win. If Arnold collapses, that turns it into a two candidate race, and that makes it tougher for McClintock. You can't change one variable and assume that the race dynamics stay the same.
But like I said, you present the best argument for supporting McClintock at this stage. I'm not quite sure why your post is generating the antipathy coming its way.
The following makes me wonder what it is about McClintock that keeps Conservatives and Republicans from supporting him. Apparently they know something.....
Currently, Bustamante is the favorite among Democratic voters (49%); Republicans prefer Schwarzenegger (47%) to McClintock (24%); and independents are more evenly divided between Bustamante with 24 percent and Schwarzenegger with 21 percent, while 12 percent support McClintock. Nearly half of Latinos support Bustamante (49%). Among white voters 28 percent would vote for Schwarzenegger and 25 percent for Bustamante; 15 percent support McClintock. Bustamante’s support is highest among liberals (50%), Schwarzenegger’s is highest among conservatives (42%), and moderates are divided between Bustamante (24%) and Schwarzenegger (25%). Although McClintock gets his highest support from conservatives, they favor Schwarzenegger even more (29% to 42%).
What I don't understand is that if McClintock is so strong among conservatives why is it they don't support him above the 29% level? He's been in the CA political scene for most or all of his adult life. So he must be well known within the Party and especially among it's so called conservatives. Yet he draws less than 30% support. That says something about him...... Just what it says I'm not sure other than he can't win with that kind of base support....
He draws 24% from the Republican Party. Not good for someone with his years of service.... Again what do the CA Republican Party members know that keeps them for supporting him in much higher numbers?
Ridiculous.
I asked because you may be one of these people.
Because it's fantasy.
It's "If I win the lottery on Wednesday, I'll never have to work again" kinda stuff.
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