“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[strela]

Is there anything about Schwarzenegger that displeases you? Anything at all?

Schwarzenegger has some things that he espouses that I disagree with. I don't expect perfection from anyone though, and I know that he is the best candidate with the best chance of winning.

Let's turn the question around - is there anything about Schwarzenegger that PLEASES you? Anything at all?

[SteveH]

Reasonable chance? Just what do you think is holding off all the dirt bombs and mainstream media policy analyses and editorials against Arnold?

[strela]

If that is evidence of intelligence, it is intelligence of a very exotic and perplexing type.

So you consider California voters to be stupid sheep. Riiiiight ... THAT'LL win 'em over to your point of view.

[PhiKapMom]

You may have been right a month ago but after McC took the Indian gambling donations and then threw in with Cruz on the debates, he is history with a lot of folks that previously would have voted for him.

You all have no one to blame but the candidate himself -- some "principled" conservative as you all like to refer to him -- personally speaking someone who takes money from the Indians knowing full well it is done to split the votes of Republicans at the direction of Cruz is not a "principled" person!

There you have why your numbers will never match. In addition, most Republicans have had all of McC that they can stand. His attacks on Arnold and not Cruz say it all!

[tallhappy]

Leave "Fantasy Land" for the kids and Disney.

Fair enough.

Cuts both ways, though.

The entire Schwarzenegger campaign is built on a strange fantasy.

[NittanyLion]

What you mean by "conservatism" hasn't been a significant political tendency in the USA since the time of Davy Crockett. Do not throw away what good can be accomplished because you do not believe the the good is good enough. Years ago, about twenty, I was in your political camp. Hard knocks and other experiences in the real world persuaded me that, one, the political situation is seriously dangerous, and two, that hoping to return to 1830 politically is vanity.

I'd happily settle for Reagan-style conservatism; clearly that isn't something Arnold is interested in providing.

Compromise would entail getting some of what you want in exchange for some of what the other guy wants - not acceding to the other guy's every wish.

[deport]

It's because even though in their views they identify with McClintock, they've been fooled into listening to people like you. "ARNOLD CAN WIN."

Thanks for the reply..... So I guess we can assume based upon your statement that their belief in McClintock runs very shallow if they can be fooled by what some McClintock supporters on here call a far left liberal and Rino...... They apparently aren't the 'true or pure' conservative that is willing to go to the wall but rather more of a pragmatic conservative.

I think there is something else [something they know or have experienced about McClintock], I just don't know what it is........

Again thanks for offering an opinion.

[b9]

I only look to Perfection for perfection,
not to man and most certainly not to politicians.

You and I must agree to disagree on who is the
godsend in this election.

[tallhappy]

I see you avoided the question.

[tallhappy]

I believe it is necessary to restrain the Left's continuing successfull attack on public virtue

I agree which is why I will not vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger.

[JCEccles]

My opinion is it was inevitable after Schwarzenegger entered and made the whole thing a bad joke.

I believe you are right. Had Schwarzenegger stayed out of it, Californians would have had to look long and hard at the mess they are in and choose between continuing to stumble down the same failed social liberal path to fiscal ruin, or electing a true fiscal conservative whose social conservatism is the only congruent ideology that will allow fiscal conservatism to work and rescue the state.

Instead, Schwarzenegger intruded and pitched the lie that Californians could have fiscal conservatism without paying a price on the social liberal side. Now distracted by the promise of easy solutions from an action movie character, they are about to opt for more of the same failed policies that got them into this mess in the first place. How foolish.

It is pointless to try to help a drowing person who doesn't wish to be rescued.

[JCEccles]

So you consider California voters to be stupid sheep.

And you believe electing Gray Davis is evidence of intelligence?

[B Knotts]

Just one teeny little problem - much of Arnold's support is crossover Democrats who will never, no never, vote for McClintock.

Actually, it's not. Schwarzenegger is getting a measly 11% of Democrats, and less independents than Simon.

[tallhappy]

There should be a new term "Hughbot".

I like Hewitt, always have, but he always is wrong.

He said Lundgren would win. He supported the candidate who could not win, Simon, in the primary. He said Bush would pull off a surprise victory in California in 2000.

Hugh is great, but he's wrong.

[DoctorZIn]

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[tallhappy]

You may have been right a month ago but after McC took the Indian gambling donations and then threw in with Cruz on the debates

The former is a bit of a manupulation in that he has always -- for years and years -- supported what he calls "Indian soverignty" and taken their contributions. It is one of the reasons I am not a McClintock supporter (but see as as the best candidate in, to put mildy, an imperfect field).

It's not like he sold out his principles in this election -- he always had those principle -- again something I disagree with. I do not like the emergen of all these casinos.

The latter, yes. That was a bigger mistake.

As far as casinos. I think Schwarzenegger is more likley to invite Vegas concerns in to build casinos. That's worse than "Indian gaming" to my mind.

[Iris7]

You said, "At some point, compromise is no longer compromise. It is abject surrender."

I believe the situation too serious to allow personal feelings to cloud judgement. Actions espoused on this thread will lead to future regret.

To me your statement is vanity.

[tallhappy]

You miss the point. Schwarzenegger may well be more detrimental to California and the nation than either recall failing or Bustamante being elected.

[tallhappy]

OK.

I am stunned.

It happens every time.

It turns out you are from Wisconsin.

I know nothing about Wisconsin.

How do you know so much about California?

[Iris7]

We shall see what we will see. Perhaps you will come to regret your present point of view.