Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.
It would be appreciated if you posted these internal polls as posts.
Thanks in advance. I'd like to see every poll there is.
If I'm going to throw away my vote by voting for Perot, Buchanan or McClintock, I'd rather vote for myself as a write-in candidate.
Of course, each conservative must act according to his conscience, and I will respect him even when if I disagree with him.
If the choice is among Bush, Clinton, and Perot, I will choose Bush the elder.
If the choice is among Schwarzenegger, Bustamante, and McClintock, I will choose Schwarzenegger.
If America becomes a totalitarian state and the choice is Mao, Hitler, and Stalin, I will vote for myself as a write-in.
Uncle Ted as elder statesmen advisor for the Califrnia Governor is not a nice thought.
Stop crying.
BGR made the following general statement:
"Only idiots and those who want to see Bust-a-belt win say anything different. Welcome to reality."
Which of the two are you claiming you are? An "idiot" or somebody who "wants to see Bustamante win"?
Aye, the nub of the problem. Begin with values, and build on them. Doing otherwise is like building a roof and expecting the foundation to materialize on its own.
If [McClintock] can't get elected, they won't make any difference.
Then support him and help get him elected.
Agreed -- that would be flawed. I specifically said Schwarzenegger cannot drop out for this to work.
If either McClintock or Schwarzenegger drop out, Bustamante is in.
Early in this campaign I was in that category.
Of course, if you actually prefer Schwarzenegger's liberalism, then by all means continue to support him.
Nor of this as a flood.
I totally agree - that IS a ridiculous premise. But, let's follow it to both possible outcomes.
If Tom wipes the floor with Arnold, you'll see maybe a 1/2 percent swing in votes. California voters are smart enough to realize that McClintock can't win no matter how many cute debating tricks he knows, and the Indian gambling money scandal will continue to bleed off even more of his already miniscule support.
Conversely, if Arnold rhetorically breaks Tijuana Tom in half like a matchstick, he'll pick up about half of the "committed" McClintock voters. They'll finally see that they're supporting a pig in a poke. The hardcore kooks will either stay home or waste their vote on the 7th.
I'm not a McClintock type.
I am not for Schwarzenegger. Currently Bustamante will win. Schwarzenegger is not a strong candidate.
It would be better for McClintock to win despite his shortcomings.
This has to do with Schwarzenegger, not McClintock.
Years ago, about twenty, I was in your political camp. Hard knocks and other experiences in the real world persuaded me that, one, the political situation is seriously dangerous, and two, that hoping to return to 1830 politically is vanity.
Because I don't vote for hypocrites or politicians who suck their slop from the same trough as Gray Davis does. And Tijuana Tom fills the bill nicely on both counts.
These are the same people who voted in Davis, you understand.
If that is evidence of intelligence, it is intelligence of a very exotic and perplexing type.
Few people see this. It's too bad there's a strong chance you are right on the money.
My opinion is it was inevitable after Schwarzenegger entered and made the whole thing a bad joke.
CA Republicans blow it again.
Yes. I am not a McClintock supporter. But I am not a Schwarzenegger supporter. Until recently, though, I did still think perhaps on election day I'd vote for Schwarzenegger as a vote against Bustamante.
So I think your point is very good.
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