“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

9-22-03

[tallhappy]

Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link

It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But “Tom can’t win.”

A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.

Some examples:

The vilified LA Times Poll:

Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18

With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.

In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.

Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16

McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.

Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:

Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14

McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.

The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems won’t vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.

This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers don’t quite add up.

Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesn’t win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldn’t be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesn’t apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isn’t a normal election and Bustamante isn’t pulling the numbers.

Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesn’t have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldn’t apply.

On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamante’s support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzenegger’s to shake the world with their silent surprise.

[finnman69]

Your assumption that McClintock would pick up 60% of Arnold's vote if he dropped out is deeply flawed. Even if McClintock picked up 60% of Arnold's support,(I don't think he would pick up nearly that much), your remaining 40% is still out there for Bustamente to pick up, kicking him up to 40% from 30% with a 40-30 win over McClintock.

[toothless]

LOL thats just what I was thinking.

[Hillary's Lovely Legs]

Who more closely reflects your values and opinions, McClintock, Schwarzenegger or Bustamante? I asked because you may be one of these people.

I may be one of WHAT people?

[Afronaut]

Many of Arnold's support comes from the right that finds itself more balanced on social issues. And all this "IF you do not represent the hard right you are not truely a republican" is crap and is dividing the party in my opinion.

"more balanced on social issues",

More Liberal Correct? Just say it

[NathanR]

The world would be stunned.

The world will be stunned all right. It will be stunned when Gumby (Davis) wins the recall. People are getting disgusted with the Cruz, Tom, Arnold foodfight and will vote against the recall. Issa is so worried he is pouring millions more of his money into the recall effort.

[NittanyLion]

I don't disagree with either of your responses. However, the poster to whom I responded claimed that McClintock isn't even a Republican. My intent was only to point out the absurdity of such a claim.

[montag813]

It is unfortunate that amateurs such as this group insist on using bad polling numbers. As of Saturday, both Arnold and Bustamante's internal polls show the two candidates neck-and-neck with McClintock at 10-11% tops. They also show a significant LOSS IN MOMENTUM for Tom due to the Indian Casino scandal. Our polls show a surprising drop in self-styled "Conservative" likely voters, and the Casino issue is mentioned as the main reason.

[Afronaut]

 

Only stupid people allow themselves to be manipulated...

[AmishDude]

My intent was only to point out the absurdity of such a claim.

Agreed. McClintock's GOP credentials are solid.

[justshutupandtakeit]

Uh, because it is a ridiculous hypothetical at best.

People here have little tolerance for absurd propositions.

Many others are hostile towards those who will ensure that RAT control of Californica's statehouse continues. That is the certain result of conservatives sticking with Mc.

Arnold is the only Republican who would draw support from non-Republicans and none can win without that support.

[b9]

This is a bit like the man who was stranded in a flood,
with the water rising all around his house and a rowboat comes along to help...
"No thanks," he says...."God will save me."
As the water rises higher, he climbs on the roof, and a motor boat comes along to help...
"No thanks," he says..."God will save me."
As the water rises further and he's treading water, a helicopter shows up yelling "Grab the ladder, we'll pull you up!"
"No thanks," he cries..."God will save me!"
As he reaches the Pearly Gates, he asks God,
"Why didn't you save me?"
"What are you talking about?" God replies....
""I sent you two boats and a helicopter!"

[george wythe]

.

California: GOP'd Rather Be Right Than In Office

In fact, the gender gap has done more than the vaunted Latino vote to assure recent Democratic victories for every statewide office and produce a Legislature where Republicans can take few initiatives of their own, but must be content with occasional successes in blocking pet Democratic proposals.

"When 1.4 million Republican women vote Democratic, that's all you need to know," remarked Dan Schnur, former Wilson press secretary and now a political consultant, after Davis handily beat Republican conservative Dan Lungren for governor in 1998.

Will those women be voting for McClintock?

I would love to see just one poll where McClintock leads.

[per loin]

Sounds like Mondale predicting that if the Reagan supporters vote for him instead of Reagan, he will win.

[SteveH]

60% of Schwazenegger voters won't show up to the polls if he drops out. The 25 year old pierced Jiffy Lube employee isn't going to show for McClintock. He will show for the Terminator.

Actually, I am not sure that 25 year old pierced Mr. or Ms. JiffyLube not showing up is bad. That would leave the field open to the far left crazies, thoughtful moderates, and right and right crazies. The battle would be for the thoughtful moderates, who would then be asked to vote between Davis and McClintock. But I think the decision would then swing on the pocketbook issue, where Davis comes up a loser due to his lying about the budget deficit. McClintock is still in the game if Arnold drops out (and ideally endorses him).

[Dog Gone]

Barring some unforseen development in the campaign, I think it's far more likely that 60% of McClintock supporters will silently switch to Schwarzenegger on election day. If it appears from the last minute polling that a vote for McClintock is futile, many will rationalize voting for the lesser of the two evils who have a chance to win.

It's fine to support McClintock in the hope that he'll be competitive by election day, but if he's not some people will vote to stop Bustamante.

[=Intervention=]

"If he can't get elected, they won't make any difference."

You think he can't get elected (on the basis of polls, correct?), so you won't vote for him. It's the lack of vision thing, again.

[aruanan]

“Tom Can’t Win”? Wrong – Do the Math – Silent Switch Makes McClintock Governor

"Silent switch" sounds like the political version of "dark matter".

[Iris7]

You McClintock types are living proof that humans are not rational, but rationalizing. Your delusions are not generally interesting, but are now. You are doing serious and permanent damage to the effort to restrain Leftism. You are making the case well that the Right is crazy. You all are being very seriously irresponsible.

[NittanyLion]

You are doing serious and permanent damage to the effort to restrain Leftism.

I enjoyed your choice of phrase. At least you recognize the fact that electing Arnold will not promote conservatism, but rather provide California with a form of "restrained liberalism".

[=Intervention=]

"balanced on social issues"

*LOL* That's the most disingenious way of parsing Arnold's social issues I've ever read. Liberalism is liberalism is liberalism, and what divides the GOP is supporting non-conservative issues.

Hold her/him responsible. Hold me responsible, too. History only moves forward by those who refuse to compromise, and the GOP in Cali (at least the leadership) is guilty of compromising its way into nonexistence...