Posted on 09/22/2003 7:28:24 AM PDT by tallhappy
Real Clear Politics elegantly presents all the polls concerning the California Recall election at this link
It seems that just about everyone pushing Schwarzenegger as the best chance for Republicans also feel McClintock would be preferable if he had a chance to win. McClintock is thought to most reflect their values and positions on issues. But Tom cant win.
A simple perusal of the poll numbers, though, belies this conventional wisdom. Do the math. If only 60% of Schwarzenegger supports decided to vote for McClintock, McClintock take the lead.
Some examples:
The vilified LA Times Poll:
Schwarzenegger - 25
Bustamante - 30
McClintock - 18
With a switch of 60% Schwarzenegger to McClintock, McClintock is at 33 and wins by 3.
In polls with Schwarzenegger polling higher the effect is stronger, e.g. SurveyUSA.
Schwarzenegger - 39
Bustamante - 29
McClintock - 16
McClintock at 39.4, wins by more than 10.
Even the ureleased newst Field poll with Bustamante higher than Schwarzenegger plays out the same:
Schwarzenegger - 26
Bustamante - 28
McClintock - 14
McClintock at 29.6 with the silent 60 switch, over the top by 1.6%.
The reason for this effect is that Bustamante support has stayed consistently low, only about 30%. This is lower than the Democrat candidate would generally poll in a general election. The dynamics of this unique recall are different. Many dems wont vote for a candidate for recall on principle. They feel the recall is wrong hence will only vote no and will not mark a replacement candidate. Others who normally would vote for a Democrat also may be voting for Huffington, Camejo or even Schwarzenegger. This effectively splits the left/liberal vote more than usual causing Bustamantes numbers to be low.
This dynamic allows a conservative a chance to win in this election compared to a regular general election where the numbers dont quite add up.
Conservatives are playing defense by voting for Schwarzenegger. Defense doesnt win. The offensive strategy is for conservatives to vote for McClintock in this election where a conservative actually could win. Conservatives shouldnt be scared off by the media drumbeat and conventional wisdom. It doesnt apply in this election. In a normal election a Democrat would pull near 50% and always beat the 40% conservative/Republican base. But this isnt a normal election and Bustamante isnt pulling the numbers.
Let the race play out as it is. Schwarzenegger doesnt have to pull out for this to work. In fact, if he did pull out this scenario wouldnt apply.
On election day there needs to be a silent surprise. If the polls on Bustamantes support are right, only 60% of Schwarzenegger supporters need to quietly punch the McClintock chad rather than Schwarzeneggers to shake the world with their silent surprise.
Schwarzenegger has some things that he espouses that I disagree with. I don't expect perfection from anyone though, and I know that he is the best candidate with the best chance of winning.
Let's turn the question around - is there anything about Schwarzenegger that PLEASES you? Anything at all?
So you consider California voters to be stupid sheep. Riiiiight ... THAT'LL win 'em over to your point of view.
Fair enough.
Cuts both ways, though.
The entire Schwarzenegger campaign is built on a strange fantasy.
I'd happily settle for Reagan-style conservatism; clearly that isn't something Arnold is interested in providing.
Compromise would entail getting some of what you want in exchange for some of what the other guy wants - not acceding to the other guy's every wish.
Thanks for the reply..... So I guess we can assume based upon your statement that their belief in McClintock runs very shallow if they can be fooled by what some McClintock supporters on here call a far left liberal and Rino...... They apparently aren't the 'true or pure' conservative that is willing to go to the wall but rather more of a pragmatic conservative.
I think there is something else [something they know or have experienced about McClintock], I just don't know what it is........
Again thanks for offering an opinion.
I agree which is why I will not vote for Arnold Schwarzenegger.
I believe you are right. Had Schwarzenegger stayed out of it, Californians would have had to look long and hard at the mess they are in and choose between continuing to stumble down the same failed social liberal path to fiscal ruin, or electing a true fiscal conservative whose social conservatism is the only congruent ideology that will allow fiscal conservatism to work and rescue the state.
Instead, Schwarzenegger intruded and pitched the lie that Californians could have fiscal conservatism without paying a price on the social liberal side. Now distracted by the promise of easy solutions from an action movie character, they are about to opt for more of the same failed policies that got them into this mess in the first place. How foolish.
It is pointless to try to help a drowing person who doesn't wish to be rescued.
And you believe electing Gray Davis is evidence of intelligence?
Actually, it's not. Schwarzenegger is getting a measly 11% of Democrats, and less independents than Simon.
I like Hewitt, always have, but he always is wrong.
He said Lundgren would win. He supported the candidate who could not win, Simon, in the primary. He said Bush would pull off a surprise victory in California in 2000.
Hugh is great, but he's wrong.
The former is a bit of a manupulation in that he has always -- for years and years -- supported what he calls "Indian soverignty" and taken their contributions. It is one of the reasons I am not a McClintock supporter (but see as as the best candidate in, to put mildy, an imperfect field).
It's not like he sold out his principles in this election -- he always had those principle -- again something I disagree with. I do not like the emergen of all these casinos.
The latter, yes. That was a bigger mistake.
As far as casinos. I think Schwarzenegger is more likley to invite Vegas concerns in to build casinos. That's worse than "Indian gaming" to my mind.
I believe the situation too serious to allow personal feelings to cloud judgement. Actions espoused on this thread will lead to future regret.
To me your statement is vanity.
I am stunned.
It happens every time.
It turns out you are from Wisconsin.
I know nothing about Wisconsin.
How do you know so much about California?
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