Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[rwfromkansas]

lol

[Miss Marple]

I am not clever. I stole that from mykidsmom, who got it from Paul Atreides thread.

Joe Biden has nothing on me!

[steveegg]

TWC guy and truck getting blown off Radio Island.

[Lostinacademe]

Jeez, those people are insane staying out there in the storm. Especially foxnews, I mean, what else is the weather channel for? Speaking of which, I just love TWC computer simulations of likely damage from the storm. Have you seen that?

[rwfromkansas]

Got some outside my window here in Kansas....

[southernnorthcarolina]

The power in wind increases cubicly with the velocity not to the square.

It does? Hmmm. Thanks for the correction. I knew the relationship was geometric and not linear.

Actual damage, as opposed to measured wind pressure, probably shows an even sharper upward curve as wind speeds increase. I wouldn't be surprised if damage in $$$ terms is 2x or 3x as high at 120 mph than at 100 mph.

[MIKEinGA]

you would think the ducks could rescue themselves, they CAN FLY

[rwfromkansas]

It is just downright chilly here and very windy.

At least we are done with the 110 temps for the year.

Stay safe east coast folks.

[wimpycat]

I just left Raleigh. It's not too bad there yet, and the power is indeed flickering.

What pissed me off as I was driving home was all the businesses and homeowners who have done NOTHING to secure objects on their property. Some of my neighbors haven't secured their garbage cans, deck chairs, etc. Some businesses on Hwy 70 still have flags stuck on fences and in the ground and those portable signs that you can change the letters on...unbelievable. There were lots of twigs and leaves blowing across the road and I saw some real estate signs blown over.

And it's starting to sound pretty bad here. A tree fell down right across the street from me, partly in the road, right next to a power box. Our power is still on, obviously--for the moment. I'm going to get myself something hot to eat, while I still can.

Signing off for now!

[glock rocks]

maybe the ducks were her food storage :-O

[Overtaxed]

Not many trees close to the beaches, either, and those they do have tend to be smaller and/or more flexible and wind resistant.

I just hope the ice storm (whose damage I just finished cleaning up) took out the week trees so I won't find anything on my house when I get home. :)<

[rwfromkansas]

Talk to the assignment editor. I doubt the reporter volunteered to go. :)

[steveegg]

Stay safe (despite the stupidity of your neighbors).

[COBOL2Java]

Steady rain here in Alexandria, VA. Wind gusts up to 30mph.

[Gabz]

Good Luck.

[Slip18]

News guy from FOX news is getting blow around pretty badly. The cement slabs are coming up right near him. What is he doing out there? He's at the NC barrier. Atlanta Beach, NC?

[XRdsRev]

Historically, the Penninsula is the area between the Pamunkey, York and James Rivers, from east of Richmond to Fortress Monroe. The Chickahominy cuts through the western and central parts of the Penninsula.

Williamsburg, Yorktown & Jamestown are all on the Penninsula.

[Gabz]

Take care.

[Conservative4Ever]

Take care, Jonah....log on again on the other side of the storm...let us know you are safe.

Red

[CobaltBlue]

As far as the pissing match on these Isabel threads about which is worse, a hurricane or a tornado

Is that what's going on? Because if so, it's ridiculous to compare them. Tornados pack more wind, but don't last long, and don't cause torrential rains and don't push storm surges. Apples and oranges.

When you see the path of a tornado, it's very destructive but narrow. The path of a hurricane typically isn't as intense but because it's far broader, it causes more damage overall.

Apples and oranges, apples and oranges. When Oklahoma starts having tornadoes that last 8 hours, we'll all bow down to Oklahoma, OK?

Now please put a sock in it, pretty please? You, and everybody else who wants to tell us all about tornadoes, please go away and let us talk about the hurricane.