Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
As far as the pissing match on these Isabel threads about which is worse, a hurricane or a tornado; I would say that they both suck pretty bad and I want to avoid both at all times.
Sometimes it seems like you can almost smell the sea - even this far inland.
Too little, too late.
At 10:30 a.m., Dominion Virginia Power reports the following outages: 19,800 on the Peninsula; 2,700 in the Gloucester area; 43,500 in Chesapeake; 32,600 in Norfolk; 46,800 in Virginia Beach.
Yep. And that makes all the difference. Not many trees close to the beaches, either, and those they do have tend to be smaller and/or more flexible and wind resistant. Which is a good thing. Just about any decent structure can withstand a wind of 85 knots (=98 mph), but not a tree moving at that speed.
It won't be a walk in the park there, and I don't minimize their problems, but some pretty good things have happened, all things considered: 1) sustained winds of 100 mph are a LOT better than 120 or 130 -- wind pressure on structures increases as the SQUARE of increases in wind speed; 2) storm surges are similarly geometric; 3) with due consideration for those in her path, she's hitting the coast at a pretty good place -- strongest winds just to the east of the eye will be felt mostly in unpopulated areas (village of Ocracoke excepted, and it's on the sound side and will be mostly OK); and 4) it's moving along briskly, and the flooding problems should be much less severe than was the case with Floyd.
Who's in charge of handing out the Izzy Darwin awards?
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