Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[CFW]

She had no idea how long the "borrowed" folks will be here.

Well, since it is my sister's EX, keep him as long as you need him.

[Slip18]

I just saw that, too. Dang, I wish I knew the area better. 44 foot waves measured by a buoy? Man alive!

[steveegg]

Although Isabel will weaken as it moves inland...unusually strong winds...with gusts to hurricane force...may be experienced far inland over the elevated terrain of northern Virginia and Maryland...as well as on high-rise buildings and other structures.

Yikes.

[Jackie-O]

Howl, my son is in Washington, just east of Raleigh. I have not been able to reach him since the day before yesterday..

[steveegg]

Was on TWC; their man on the ground was getting blown around.

[mhking]

FYI: Hurricane City (http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram) is streaming live from the Ham Radio Hurricane Info Net.

[iceskater]

I hear you! LOL

[EternalVigilance]

Good and cloudy, no rain, but starting to get some moderate gusty winds here in DC.

[dennis1x]

great news from NHC.....Isabella down to cat 1....


Hurricane Isabel Discussion Number 50


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 18, 2003



the large eyewall of Isabel is coming ashore along the North
Carolina Outer Banks. Although aircraft reconnaissance reports
flight-level winds of 111 kt...surface winds are estimated to be
substatially lower...about 85 kt. Little change in strength is
expected prior to the center making landfall. Although Isabel will
weaken after landfall...the strong winds aloft will be felt in the
form of hurricane force wind gusts well inland over the elevated
terrain of northern Virginia and western Maryland...as well as on
high rise buildings and other structures in major metropolitan
areas near and especially east of the path of Isabel.
There has been little change to the forecast track. Isabel is
expected to become extratropical within 36 hours and be absorbed
after 48 hours.
Forecaster Franklin

[DoctorMichael]

>>>>>>CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA<<<<<<

7:30 AM- Gloomy grey skies, NO rain yet, NO wind yet, drove in to work

9:00 AM- First drops of rain starting to fall

11:00 AM- Announcement...............

The University will close at 1 p.m. on Thursday, Sept. 18, except for essential services. Classes are cancelled as of 1 p.m. Thursday and will not be held on Friday. Non-essential employees are not to report to work for the second or third shift on Thursday or for the day shift on Friday. All essential employees must report to work.

[Howlin]

When this is over, will you remind me to BUY a rain gauge and a wind thingy???? I don't have one! I'd love to know what it is here.

[Bigg Red]

Thanks for the ping.
The Hitlery picture is funny but not all that far-fetched.

[iceskater]

Don't worry, your turn will come....

[ShakeNJake]

Thanks Coastie. I appreciate the local updates as I have family in the evacuated areas.

No one seems to be leaving though and have just battened down the hatches to ride it out.

[ShakeNJake]

Thanks Coastie. I appreciate the local updates as I have family in the evacuated areas.

No one seems to be leaving though and have just battened down the hatches to ride it out.

[iceskater]

I was talking to someone at UVA yesterday who acted like the hurricane was going to pass right on by C'ville. I was kind of amazed. I was telling her VCU was closed today and tomorrow and she was incredulous. Didn't have a clue.

[NCjim]

Yes - Morehead City/Newport. I am leaving now to pick up my daughter from school. I get to see the storm up close and personal now... :-)

[steveegg]

Thanks (though the auto-HTML fouled things up a bit; it's http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram)

[iceskater]

Okay. Sometimes too much data, is well, too much data.
I am not relishing my 10 block walk to my car, that's for sure.

[Slip18]

"When this is over, will you remind me to BUY a rain gauge and a wind thingy???? "

Just get a string and hang it outside. If it's raining, the string will be wet. If it's frozen, it's cold outside. If the string is blowing, it's windy. It's a great gauge.

Trying to add a little levity here.