Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
My sister's ex-husband, who works for Georgia Power, left this morning from Georgia...headed that way to help. It'll probably be days before he is back.
My sister's ex-husband, who works for Georgia Power, left this morning from Georgia...headed that way to help. It'll probably be days before he is back.
Our Richmond radio said that 200,000+ customers without power in Va. 700,000 lost power during Hurricane Floyd. They seem to think that's a good gauge of what to expect today. They were interviewing a woman from Va. Dominion Power. She had no idea how long the "borrowed" folks will be here.
the large eyewall of Isabel is coming ashore along the North Carolina Outer Banks. Although aircraft reconnaissance reports flight-level winds of 111 kt...surface winds are estimated to be substatially lower...about 85 kt. Little change in strength is expected prior to the center making landfall. Although Isabel will weaken after landfall...the strong winds aloft will be felt in the form of hurricane force wind gusts well inland over the elevated terrain of northern Virginia and western Maryland...as well as on high rise buildings and other structures in major metropolitan areas near and especially east of the path of Isabel. There has been little change to the forecast track. Isabel is expected to become extratropical within 36 hours and be absorbed after 48 hours. Forecaster Franklin |
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