Posted on 09/17/2003 8:14:30 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003
...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.
Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.
There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Avila
I'm in S.central Oklahoma on the Red River,so I don't worry much about 'canes but I used to truck OTR and have seen enough damage from them to really feel for the folks that go through them.
Someone else may know more or have some completely different info.
I can't imagine actually seeing one of them happen. I"m glad you're ok!
And I love your state. It's truly beautiful!
Thank you. Me too. Everything else will clean up in time but I could not have bared to watch one of my beloved horses wash away and drown. The horse that wanted to swim the creek will not even cross a puddle most of the time. He is a big baby and has a rubber ducky in his water trough that he plays with.
An amazing little story about my flood was that about two months ago, I had lost and accidentally buried a rather expensive depth sensor for my backhoe while helping a neighbor with their road. It was lost about a mile from here. I was sick about it because it has been a slow summer and I knew that I couldn't afford to replace it for some time. While cleaning all of the debris from around my grape vines, I found my sensor just laying on the ground next to a vine right here at my house.
Wishing you all the best out there!
Doug
But the wind that delighted the adrenalin junkies shredded the roof of the beachfront Best Western Hotel and collapsed a chunk of the venerable Sea Ranch Hotel, a tourist favorite already battered and weary from years of storms.
My first ever rafting trip happened when I was young and foolish. I didn't want to embark in big water like the Colorado but I still wanted a few thrills. I had a six man raft and 5 equally foolish friends. We set out in a small creek near Copper Mountain. Well, the creek was small but boy was it steep and fast. It was springtime so there were still avalanches across the creek. We were barely able to get to the side to portage before getting sucked under them. Rock slides had brought down a number of trees which scraped off some of my companions and punctured air chambers in the raft. We would slam into rocks, throwing others off the raft. One poor fellow broke his ankle and there were only two of us left in the raft by the time we got to Lake Dillon. There were only two air chambers left too. A kayak would have been a better bet.
That would have been the "Big Thompson" I remember driving up to see the aftermath when I was little. The damage was unreal. A dam broke. They didn't have a chance.
It's a play on my real name; this little ol' granny doesn't kayak at all. A lot of people have reached the same conclusion you did .... and for obvious reasons. I have found out there are a number of kayakers on FR .... :-)
I got to float down a street once in Salina KS. I just read a story a couple weeks ago about a fellow who drove across some water on a road near his house. It turned out that the water had cut a deep channel in the road. He was swept away into a river and drowned.
uh . . . nevermind :-)
on the other hand, it's never too late to start kayaking, or so I'm told. It's either that or you are going to have to change your name. ;-)
I was just heading to bed and checked my pings one more time. Do you need me to stay here a while for you?
My prayers are with you and your family
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