Hurricane Isabel:Live Thread #2 "Force Ten Conditions In North Carolina And Further North"

NHC | 9-17-03 | My Favorite Headache

[My Favorite Headache]

Hurricane Isabel Advisory Number 48

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 17, 2003

...Outer bands of Hurricane Isabel moving onshore...weather should gradually worsen...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Cape Fear North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within 24 hours.

All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect south of Cape Fear to South Santee River South Carolina...and north of Chincoteague to Sandy Hook New Jersey...including Delaware Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward...and for the tidal Potomac.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 31.9 north... longitude 73.9 west or about 250 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected prior to landfall. On the forecast track...the center of Isabel is expected to make landfall in eastern North Carolina during the day Thursday. However...conditions will deteriorate over a large area well before the center reaches the coast. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the coastline.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 miles. A buoy located west of the hurricane recently reported wind gusts to 74 mph and 32 foot waves.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently reported a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels... along with extremely large and dangerous battering waves...is expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 8 ft above normal tide levels is expected in Chesapeake Bay and the tidal portions of adjacent rivers.

Storm total rainfalls of 6 to 10 inches...with locally higher amounts...are likely in association with Isabel.

There is a threat of isolated tornadoes over eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia on Thursday.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.9 N... 73.9 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Avila

[NautiNurse]

Power flickered on for a couple of seconds here, then died again

That means the wind has changed direction. The power lines are trying to right themselves now.

Historically, this little know event has not been very successful in restoring electricity to residential customers.

[abner]

The downstairs of our house is all open except for a center load bearing wall that is about 10 feet long. So, every wall down here is an outside wall. I have to say though, since the house was brought in in cubes, and the walls filled with some kind of super foam, I feel better down here than upstairs.

If it gets really bad, I'm hitting the basement.

[Not A Snowbird]

Re: the 65M cost for a government shutdown, I'm a government employee and I honestly don't see where they come up with those numbers. If we decided not to come to work tomorrow, we'd be paid the same salary and we wouldn't have the light bill or phone bill to worry about. So we'd cost less by not being there, right?

[Amelia]

Hey, at least you HAVE a basement! And if there's wind but no flooding, that's a great place to be.

Down here near the coast, the water table is so high that basements are unheard of.

[StriperSniper]

So we'd cost less by not being there, right?

Productivity loss? I don't know what basis Fox was using to generate those numbers. But it was a great segment with that wind guage. ;-)

[glock rocks]

...and when Potomac Energy speaks... well, they have, um, spoken. gives one a warm feeling.

there's only green river power, commonwealth edison, and consolidated edison that might (might) rate lower on the food chain of swamp life... the mind boggles.

[abner]

I am very happy that we have a basement. Also, we are on a hill so even though the ground is totally saturated, at least we won't be flooded out. The people at the bottom of the hill will probably need lots of help in the coming week. Lots of the houses at the bottom of our hill are right next to the Brandywine River. The houses are built on a floodplain. Apparently, when they were built, people weren't enforcing local building codes. Monday it flooded.

I don't know if we will make it into work tomorrow...

[Bob J]

Tonight, UNSPUN with AnnaZ and Guest Hostess DIOTIMA!

TONIGHT @ 7pm Pacific/9pm Eastern!

Affirmative Distraction

with special guest

Attorney
Sharon Matthew
Of
Pacific Legal Foundation

Click HERE to LISTEN LIVE while you FReep!

Click HERE for the RadioFR Chat Room!

Miss a show?
Click HERE for the RadioFR Archives!

[Interesting Times]

Just come on up here and fire up our generator... It will give you something to do doing the storm. :-)

I'd love to, but I have to rearrange my sock drawer.

Looks like DC's going to miss the worst of it... the main core of the storm is passing just to the west.

[Not A Snowbird]

"Productivity loss?"

But...but... I thought government employees weren't productive! What a dilemma! :-)

[abner]

I'd love to, but I have to rearrange my sock drawer.

Again? LOL!

My new kittens name is DC. Not for District of Columbia, but for Deaf Cat.

He is very cute though. He loves the Viking Kitties...

[NautiNurse]

Is he white with blue eyes?

[EverOnward]

Re your post 1734 -- Sounds like you raised your daughter right.

Couldn't get back earlier -- my daughter took over computer and our power is blinking on and off. We're keeping our flashlights within reach. At times, it becomes rather quiet here in western Fairfax County until another band comes through howling with heavy rains and wind gusts.

Between 1-2 million Virginians without power.

We're being strongly encouraged to stay home and off the roads though I occasionally see cars going by and a few neighbors strolling in the rain with flashlights swinging in the darkness (probably teenagers).

[StriperSniper]

But...but... I thought government employees weren't productive!

I'm a government employee

Well, I wasn't going to say it. ;-)

[glock rocks]

So far it's just been a windy night.

My prayers are with you. pepco might be coping with interagency cooperation

[AppyPappy]

Look at the scoreboard, my man

[abner]

Nope. He is almost completely black. He is very loving. I put up a page called Name the new cat when we first got him. I haven't changed the page yet to reflect that he has a name. It is DC. He is so darned cute. He can't hear a thing.

[Amelia]

I don't envy the flooded people...altho, it's odd that some folks can't get it through their heads that building codes are there for a reason....

[lizma]

We have a three day weekend coming up (today)and hub a few weeks ago wanted to go to the Outer Banks. Told him I don't think the weather would be good enough. Turned out out to be an understatement!

Ended up cancelling our Williamburgs weekend.

Bought a generator about ten years ago. Our generator has paid for itself many, many times over. No spoiled food.

[abner]

Yes, I agree.. There may be a whole bunch of people down there looking for new places to live.