New ABC Poll shows A.S. way ahead

Dave Dryer on Hewitt radio Pror.

[Stars N Stripes]

David Dryer is talking about a poll that was done by ABC over the weekend that shows:

AS - 45%

Busta - 29

Mclnt - 11%

on the Hugh Hewitt show now.

[BunnySlippers]

Right so now Ah-nold's supporters have no "self-respect." I see. And whom in your opinion would McClintock supporters be voting for if McClintock were to drop out of the race?

Bustamante for sure.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

McClintock supporters have received their classical training, in political salesmanship.

This seems to be a fairly youthfull (youthfull = ignorant) statement. In the actual real world, things are not quite so black-and-white, As you may learn in time.

BTW, McClintock supporters are mostly interested in the repair of the state's fiscal condition above all other concerns. To date, albeit with minimal media exposure, McClintock's policies are the most practical solutions to this end.

[unspun]

A TRAGEDY! aren't we get a little melodramatic here folks? Have you ever had a TRAGEDY in your life? I have, and I sure don't compare it to losing an election! Jeez...

How many deaths does it take to make for a tragedy in your book?

[deport]

Don't know...... I'm more interested in seeing follow up polls from Field, LA Times, etc. to see what they show now. I think you have to compare each poll against itself and not against other polling groups.

USA Survey has two polls out now and they have Arnold at 51% in the first one and 45% in the second which is basically within the margin of error. But this Poll is definetly out of sinc with other polls.

During the Presidential Race in 2000 polls were all over the place and POA was one ppl liked to put faith in but they turned out to be one of the most erroneous.... At this stage I think things are too volitable. Give it a few weeks, some ads, media hype, debates, etc and I think things will settle into a pattern that may be more dependable.

Another thing is that this is an election of which is outside the normal process..... So who knows yet how ppl will react and participate.... I do know for those of you out in CA that are into the political process will be in for an interesting next 42 days.... It will be fun to watch for us outsiders.....

[Edit35]

"The method learned in the training is to slur and slam potential voters. By calling them names, being disparaging and sarcastic,they will earn few votes, and as a consequence they won't be bothered with having to govern."

I saw McClintock give an interview on TV the other day, and all he did was slam, over and over, the other Republican candidates --- yet he did not utter one word about Davis or Bustamante.

I sat there with my mouth open. As a die-hard convervative, I had hoped he would at least go after the Democratic cretins who cause many of the problems in California, but instead he choose to berate Schwarznegger and another GOP candidate whose name escapes me right now.

In my world, that is the sign of an embittered candidate. And it is also a formula for defeat.

[TheDon]

Ouch! I find that hard to believe. From the little I've heard about Tom, he doesn't seem that self-centered.

[daviddennis]

Most of the difference is probably how people are counted. If you count everyone you survey, you'll get a mix of people who will vote, people who won't, and people who aren't even registered. So you restrict it to registered voters, but even that will get substantial numbers of people who won't vote.

So you try and make statistical adjustments for who actually votes and who doesn't. If my memory serves, the LA Times poll was "likely voters". This simply means they ask people:

Are you going to vote?

and tag "Yes" and "I think so" as "likely". The bulk of Democratic voters are less likely to vote than the bulk of Republicans, so this will bias you slightly towards Democrats.

The ABC poll is "certain" voters, which tend to go Republican. Of course in the actual election, we simply don't know who will go out to vote until it happens. This election may have high turnout thanks to the high interest in it; it may have more Latinos voting because they are keen on having "one of their own" as governor. Or it may have more fans of Arnold's movies vote, in which case Arnold will get a lot of support the polls won't necessarily show. Because this is an unprecedented election, we really have no clue how it's going to play out, and as a result polling companies have a wide latitude to indulge in their own theorizing.

So the ABC poll has Arnold winning, and the LA Times poll has Bustamante winning. These different results most likely satisfy different agendas and interest groups within news organizations, tempered by the professional judgement of those working for the companies.

It may be more sensible to look at trends. For example, the last SurveyUSA poll (same company as ran the ABC one) had Arnold at 51%. Now he's at 45%. So his support has dropped, and Bustamante has risen from 17% to 29% (!).

What it looks like to me is that there is a middle ground vote shifting between Arnold and Bustamante, and people are coalescing around the three major candidates. Since Bustamante has become more visible by announcing his program, it seems natural that his support has increased. Most likely, this reflects people who are his natural supporters who had not yet heard much from him before. However, I think he has hit a limit because his program is bound to be unpopular with anyone with a car worth over $20,000. There are plenty of non-rich people who have cars over $20k. I don't think they'll appreciate having to bear the Bustamante burden.

So we will see.

D

[Torie]

I agree with you if he did that. He should demonstrate that he is the best candidate to slay the dragon that got us where we are. The voters can decide whether or not Arnold is an empty, albeit muscled, suit on their own. Moreover, at the end, if McClintock sees that he is the difference in electing Bustamante governor, I suspect he will drop out. McClintock is a policy kind of guy, not an egomaniac. His hormonal makeup doesn't require power to keep him reasonably contented with life on a personal level. Thus, he should be careful, as should Arnold, to stick to the issues.

[Rockitz]

If only Ted were running in Cali instead of Michi....

[KQQL]

I am praying for either 1) McClintock sprints into a (sustained) lead over AS, somehow without breaking The 11th

McCLintock is trashing Arnold all over Cable Channels, he is accusing ARNIE of stealing his stuff....

Looks like " McClintock = Perot "

ARNIE TO Freerepublic = "I am no Liberal, just ask my buddy RUSH"

[pogo101]

One thing upon which all here can agree:

Arnold? Listen to me now and hear me later: That big gay ring has got to GO.

[heleny]

Maybe this poll takes into account that voters who will vote "NO" on the recall can't vote for the successor.

False. Voters may choose a successor whether they vote Yes or No or even if they abstain.

[Princeliberty]

So what you see. They had no poll on their webpage.

And ABC has no poll up. What are the people on
thread talking about?

[Princeliberty]

Were did you any results for a new Survey USA poll,
ABC and Washington Poll have no poll on their webpages.

[AFPhys]

This post, and #14, nail the situation at present.

All the polls to date have two consistent findings: The number is for Bustamante falls between about 25% and 35%. McClintock polls no higher than 3rd place and is below 20%.

The polls are definitely all over the place, and that may well be somewhat intentional, and somewhat unintentional, as there are a great number of possible methodologies of doing a somewhat credible poll in this situation.

Take five. Wait until after the debates.

[jam137]

The main results of the poll were mentioned on radio and TV. I have not seen them on the web anywhere yet.

[lasereye]

False. Voters may choose a successor whether they vote Yes or No or even if they abstain.

I can't seem to get a consistent answer on this. I asked this on another thread and was told the opposite. Do you have a link?

[heleny]

Voters can choose the successor whether they vote yes or no on the first question (whether to recall Davis) according to the CA Constitution. A recent court ruling allowed voters who abstain from that question to vote for the successor anyway.

The news of the ruling is here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/954689/posts

U.S. District Judge Barry Moskowitz said voters will be allowed to cast a ballot for a potential successor to Davis even if they do not vote on whether he should be recalled.

The ruling affected CA Elections Code, Section 11382, which already allowed for a "yes" or "no" vote. http://www.leginfo.ca.gov/cgi-bin/waisgate?WAISdocID=00299916783+0+0+0&WAISaction=retrieve

11382. No vote cast in the recall election shall be counted for any candidate unless the voter also voted for or against the recall of the officer sought to be recalled.

[shiva]

seen this?


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=236400

[Wolfstar]

The only difference I've seen between the two is that Busty is honest about the fact that he wants to raise taxes.

Re your Post #138: Among the several arguments people have in support of their candidate (Arnold vs. Tom), this business of claiming not to see a difference between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante is the most specious. Cruz Bustamante is the mild-mannered, mainstream face of one of the most virulently racist, anti-American movements currntly bubbling on the fringes of political life in this country. Should he become the governor of this state, his victory will represent the entry into the mainstream of reconquista policies.

Whatever else Arnold Schwarzenegger is or is not, he most definitely is an American patriot who is sincere in his desire to give back to his adopted state and country. As a multi-millionaire many times over, whose movie career is still thriving, and whose businesses are also thriving, he doesn't need the governorship the way professional politicians do.

Anyone — and I do mean ANYONE — who fails to see the danger posed by Bustamante, and also fails to see the vast differences between him and Arnold, is either misinformed, stupid, or dishonest.

In any case, this running quarrel between those who support McClintock and those who support other right-of-center candidates is silly and non-productive. The real danger is Bustamante. If this recall — a foolish enterprise from its inception — results in him becoming governor of this state, this particular Republican/Conservative will NEVER forgive those hardliners on the right who made it possible.