Posted on 01/02/2003 11:16:39 AM PST by No Dems 2004
Is the Minnesotan electorate changing?
That’s a question I’ve been asking myself recently, when I’ve looked at the voting trends of this once-Democratic bastion over the past decade. Minnesota, the only state that hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1972, has been showing much stronger support for Republicans in almost all levels of government recently—and I’m not just talking about the 2002 results.
Consider the following voting data:
Minnesota was part of the Republican sweep in 1994, when Rod Grams won a US Senate seat 49%-44%. The GOP also won the state’s gubernatorial race in 1994 64%-34%.
1996 was a bad year for Republicans at the presidential level, but Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone was re-elected by just 51%-42%, not a real landslide for a Democrat in a supposedly heavily Democratic state.
In the 3-way gubernatorial race of 1998, Republican Norm Coleman finished a very close second after Independent Jesse Ventura. Ventura received 37% of the vote, Coleman 35% and Democrat Humphrey 28%. What’s more, exit polling data showed which way voters would have voted if Ventura hadn’t been on the ballot. Coleman led Humphrey by 10 percentage points.
There has been gradual movement toward the GOP in the state’s congressional delegation. In 1998, Democrats led 6-2. In 2000, the Dems led 5-3. Now, in 2002, it’s a 4-4 tie between the parties.
In 1998, Democrats led the GOP 42-24 in the state senate and 70-64 in the state house of representatives. Just before the 2002 elections, the GOP led 71-63 in the state house, while the Dems led 39-27 in the state senate. Now, after the mid-term, the GOP leads 82-52 in the state house, while the Dems have been reduced to a slender 35-31 edge in the state senate.
Throughout the 2000 campaign, George W. Bush was extremely competitive in Minnesota, often holding a slight edge in independent surveys. On Election Day, Gore carried the state by the slenderest of margins 48%-46%. Naturally, the Democrats blamed Ralph Nader who took about 5% of the vote in Minnesota that year. But exit polling data showed that, had Ralph Nader not been on the ballot, Gore would only have widened his lead to about 4 points (roughly 52%-48%) in a 2-way race. That’s hardly a resounding margin for a “Democratic state”, especially when you consider Gore’s margins in states like Massachusetts, Hawaii or Rhode Island, with Nader on the ballot.
Republicans narrowly lost Rod Grams’ US Senate seat in 2000. But in 2002, even before Paul Wellstone died, the Democrats were struggling to keep Wellstone’s US Senate seat. After he died, favorite son Walter Mondale failed to retain the seat for his party, losing to Norm Coleman.
The 2002 elections also saw Republican Tim Pawlenty comfortably winning the open, 3-way gubernatorial race (44%-36%). The GOP also won the statewide offices for secretary of state and state auditor.
Finally, exit polling data over the past 8 or 10 years has shown that registered Democrats only narrowly outnumber Republicans in major elections. This contrasts sharply with heavily Democratic states.
Of great significance is the fact that Minnesota Republicans are truly conservative. Unlike the notorious RINOs (Republicans In Name Only), which are found in copious numbers in state governments like New York or Connecticut, the Minnesota GOP generally reflects strong conservative values on social issues. For instance, all the successful statewide GOP candidates in Minnesota in this past election were regarded as pro-life and were endorsed by pro-life groups. Before 2002, 2 out of the 3 Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation were regarded as strongly pro-life and all were regarded as opposing the homosexual agenda. Amazingly, in yet another sign of the state’s socially conservative bent, 2 of the 5 Democrats in the state’s congressional delegation were also regarded as pro-life. Minnesota’s Republican-controlled state house of representatives has few friends on the left, either.
So, what does all this mean? Is this just ephemeral, meaningless data, or is it a long term trend? My guess is the latter. The trend nationwide in states with a conservative undercurrent has been all away from the Democratic Party (or the “Democrat Farmer Labor Party” as it’s known in the North Star state). I wouldn’t venture to say that the GOP is the majority party there, but it’s certainly more than it used to be. Democratic liberalism, stupidity and self-destructive tactics have caused their party to implode in many of their former strongholds in the South and Midwest.
With 10 electoral votes at stake, the Democrats can ill afford to lose Minnesota, and the Republicans mustn’t miss the opportunity to chip away at the Democratic base. A recent survey found that a large majority of Minnesotans approve of President Bush’s job performance. The message to him and his team is that the state isn’t just that it’s winnable, but that it’s very winnable and should be consistently cultivated for 2004.
Btw. No Dems in 2004 is a great screen name.
Let's Roll!
Either way, nice analysis. Yours is a point I have had to make on a number of threads around here. Minnesota isn't so Democratic anymore. Your article deserves a bookmark, so I don't have to keep making these points on every thread. I'll just link them here.
Now if I can only convince people that the Jesse Ventura thing was a cult of celebrity and not a serious statement about Minnesota's devotion to third parties.
Also Michigan? With a better GOTV effort than 2000 and the strength displayed by local candidates in 2002, similar to Minnesota and Wisconsin, Bush should be looking good, though the Muslim Arabs in Detroit may go big for the pro-Iraq party.
Praise the Lord and pass mental ammo!
I believe Jason Lewis, Joe Schouray, Bob Davis, Rush (all of which are on KSTP AM) had a lot to do with people here voting !
WWW.AM1500.com
I'm doing my best here...
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