> Bush expects to pick up MN, PA, IA, NM, OR, and WI in 2004.
Also Michigan? With a better GOTV effort than 2000 and the strength displayed by local candidates in 2002, similar to Minnesota and Wisconsin, Bush should be looking good, though the Muslim Arabs in Detroit may go big for the pro-Iraq party.
He'll pick up all of the rest before he picks up Michigan.
As evidenced in 2000 and the 2002 Governor's race in Michigan, I can't see how the rest of the state can overcome Detroit's influence in statewide races. As long as the Dem can lock up 95% of the Motor City (as Gore did), Michigan is not winnable in 2004 under any circumstances. Usually I'm a bit more optimistic but thats just the way it is in Michigan.