[Oregon Governor Race]Mannix, Kulongoski neck and neck

Democrat Ted Kulongoski whittled away at Republican Kevin Mannix’s electoral advantage before taking the lead on election night as the race for Oregon’s governor continued down its harrowing course.

With 65 percent of the ballots counted, Mannix and Kulongoski each had 48 percent of the votes. As Tuesday night slid into early Wednesday morning, about 525 votes separated the two competitors. The race will not be called until Wednesday.

Libertarian Tom Cox, who ran on a campaign promise to slash taxes by $1.5 billion and reduce government spending, was getting 4 percent of the vote.

Appearing before his supporters, Mannix said he was “cautiously optimistic” about the initial ballot results.

“We’re not sure,” Mannix said. “I want to be careful about that as we watch the returns. I would rather be on this side of the equation right now than the other side.”

Kulongoski, meanwhile, appeared for the first time before his supporters in Portland. They sang “happy birthday” to him before he spoke.

With returns from Democrat friendly Multnomah and Lane counties still being counted, Kulongoski boldly predicted that victory would be at hand. In Multnomah County, about 57,000 ballots are yet to be counted.

“Were going to do this,” Kulongoski said. “Just hang in there with us. Victory is on the way.”

Kulongoski’s supporters had called election offices around the state before he made his appearance. Kulongoski said he was confident the election returns were “turned in the right direction, we’re closing the gap.”

Kulongoski has picked up endorsements from Kitzhaber and former Democratic governors Neil Goldschmidt and Barbara Roberts while Mannix has picked up support from former Senator Mark Hatfield.

A KGW poll showed the race narrowing. Campaign contributions seemingly confirmed it.

Mannix had raised $3.3 million compared with $2.8 million, according to campaign contributions reports submitted to the state.

No matter who wins the Nov. 5 election, Oregon’s next governor will inherit a state budget in crisis, an anemic economy, and grim questions about funding for schools and public safety when he takes office in January 2003.

Kulongoski opened himself up for criticism by endorsing a $313 million income tax increase that's aimed at averting cuts to schools and programs.

Mannix, a socially conservative Salem lawyer who's made two unsuccessful bids for attorney general, said Kulongoski's backing of the income tax hike shows he's a tax-and-spender.

Kulongoski began aggressively fighting back in the campaign's final weeks by pointing out that Mannix voted for various tax hikes as a legislator.

Kulongoski also has hammered on the theme that Mannix's anti-abortion stance was "too extreme" for Oregon, a state that's considered an abortion rights stronghold.

Mannix countered that abortion "isn't an issue" in the governor's race and that the U.S. Supreme Court settled the issue years ago in its Roe vs. Wade ruling keeping abortion legal.

Hailing from Missouri, Kulongoski, who turned 62 on Tuesday, was raised by nuns in a St. Louis orphanage. He joined the Marines after graduating from high school and was stationed in Thailand for three years.

Kulongoski graduated from the University of Missouri law school and headed west for Oregon.

He began his career in politics as a state House staffer in 1973. He won election to a state House seat the next year, and later moved to the Senate. He unsuccessfully challenged Republican U.S. Sen. Bob Packwood in 1980.

Mannix, 52, was born in Queens, N.Y. When Mannix was 5, his family moved to South America, where his father was posted as a U.S. diplomat. Mannix lived in various Latin American countries up to age 14.

Mannix graduated from the University of Virginia and later returned there to get his law degree. He moved to Oregon in 1974.

He served five terms in the Oregon House, first as a Democrat, then as a Republican. Mannix switched parties after losing a 1996 primary election race for the Democratic nomination for attorney general against Hardy Myers.

This morning's story

Mannix, Kulongoski still in a tight race

11/06/2002

By ABE ESTIMADA and TERESA BELL, kgw.com Staff

Democrat Ted Kulongoski holds a narrow lead over Republican Kevin Mannix this morning, the day after the election.

Votes are still being counted in Oregon's tightest gubernatorial race in years.

The two contenders for Oregon governor battered each other with neither scoring a decisive blow as Tuesday night slid into Wednesday morning

At latest report, with 76 percent of the votes counted, Kulongoski was slightly ahead with 493,385 votes against Mannix's 490,745 votes. Both candidates were carrying 48 percent of the entire votes. Libertarian Tom Cox had five percent of the vote.

Kulongoski predicts he will emerge the winner when all votes are tallied, particularly in Multnomah and Lane counties, two strongly Democratic counties.

Oregon Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Kulongoski waves to supporters as he greets them at Democratic Party headquarters in Portland. (AP Photo)

But Mannix isn't giving up. He told his supporters to prepare for a long vote count. "We may have to wait a day or two to find out where we are," he said.

The hair-thin margin meant that this boxing match to succeed governor John Kitzhaber may not be decided until later Wednesday.

The harrowing contest also meant that Multnomah County and Lane County may yet play crucial roles in who ultimately takes Oregon’s top elected post.

Elections officials had about 57,000 ballots to count in Multnomah County. In Lane County, elections officials said they would continue to count all night.

“We’re going to bring this home tomorrow morning,” Kulongoski said. “… I want you to get up in the morning with this understanding: We are going to win.”

Throughout the evening, Mannix said he was cautiously optimistic. He also chastised media pundits for writing him off early in the governor’s race.

Oregon Republican gubernatorial candidate Kevin Mannix, left, greets supporters at the Governor Hotel in Portland. (AP Photo)

“We have already achieved great things in this campaign,” Mannix said.

“A candidate can stand by conservative, moral principles and values and family values and hold the line on taxes and fight against crime and support our schools and be a contender in this state.”

The near even split in the vote also means that whoever wins election as Oregon’s next governor will face a daunting task in reaching consensus among legislators.

No matter who wins the election, the next governor will inherit a state budget in crisis, an anemic economy, and grim questions about funding for schools and public safety.

“I think it represents the split among the citizens on a wide variety of issues, and it’s going to be a challenge for all of us in Salem to sit down and work this out,” Kulongoski said to KGW.

Libertarian Tom Cox, who ran on a campaign promise to slash taxes by $1.5 billion and reduce government spending, had 5 percent of the vote. Cox said he was proud of his showing.

“That tells us that we have a key group of voters who care deeply about freedom, they care about fiscal conservatism and social tolerance, and the other parties can’t afford to ignore us any more,” Cox said.

Kulongoski has picked up endorsements from Kitzhaber and former Democratic governors Neil Goldschmidt and Barbara Roberts while Mannix has picked up support from former Senator Mark Hatfield.

But Kulongoski opened himself up for criticism by endorsing a $313 million income tax increase that's aimed at averting cuts to schools and programs.

“It changed the message that we wanted to put out,” Kulongoski said to KGW. “We wanted to focus on the economy and education and ended up debating taxes.”

Mannix, a socially conservative Salem lawyer who's made two unsuccessful bids for attorney general, said Kulongoski's backing of the income tax hike shows he's a tax-and-spender.

Kulongoski began aggressively fighting back in the campaign's final weeks by pointing out that Mannix voted for various tax hikes as a legislator.

Kulongoski also has hammered on the theme that Mannix's anti-abortion stance was "too extreme" for Oregon, a state that's considered an abortion rights stronghold.

Mannix countered that abortion "isn't an issue" in the governor's race and that the U.S. Supreme Court settled the issue years ago in its Roe vs. Wade ruling keeping abortion legal.

Kulongoski graduated from the University of Missouri law school and headed west for Oregon.

Mannix graduated from the University of Virginia and later returned there to get his law degree. He moved to Oregon in 1974.

(The AP contributed to this report.)

You said it! But remember that Mannix had an excellent showing -- nearly half the voters for a Republican. We have not seen the last of him.

Statesman Journal

Kulongoski takes Oregon

TIM LaBARGE / Statesman Journal

Governor-elect Ted Kulongoski celebrates his bowling skills at his victory party at Grand Central Bowl in Portland on Wednesday evening.

Narrow victory in governor race; Kevin Mannix says he’ll play the loyal opposition and will be back.

Statesman Journal
November 7, 2002

PORTLAND — A beaming and optimistic Ted Kulongoski began planning a change in state government Wednesday after winning a narrow victory over Kevin Mannix in the Oregon governor’s race.

The lead see-sawed between the Portland Democrat and the Salem Republican during initial counting on Election Day. But Kulongoski pulled ahead Wednesday until he built an insurmountable lead, with many of the remaining uncounted ballots from heavily Democratic Multnomah County.

Kulongoski, who lost badly in his first try for governor two decades ago, gave his victory speech Wednesday evening at a Portland bowling alley, a symbol of his working class roots and appeal to average Oregonians.

Kulongoski urged supporters to help him tackle Oregon’s economic and fiscal woes, and fix the perennial school-funding problem.

“We will succeed. Do not despair,” he told cheering campaign volunteers. “I stood on a platform in a place very similar to this just 20 years ago, and what a difference!”

Mannix conceded defeat an hour earlier in a speech outside his Tigard campaign headquarters.

He promised to play the role of the loyal opposition. And the former Salem lawmaker suggested he’ll run again, despite his third loss in a statewide race.

“I would encourage my supporters not to waste those great signs they managed to put up,” Mannix said.

In Kulongoski’s first act as governor-elect, he met for two hours with Tom Imeson, who will lead his transition team.

The team will help chart policy goals and will assemble staff for the new administration.

Imeson performed a similar role for Gov. John Kitzhaber, and was a longtime aide to former U.S. Sen. Mark Hatfield. The main challenge for the new administration will be to help jump-start the economy, Imeson said.

Kulongoski also announced he will meet Friday with Kitzhaber and the governor’s task force that is studying problems in the state pension system.

Many political analysts wrote off Mannix’s chances when the socially conservative Republican emerged from a bruising primary campaign. But Kulongoski’s path to victory was not easy.

Kulongoski’s campaign advisers always knew the race would be tough, given the history for open seats in Oregon, said his pollster Lisa Grove. The campaign also figured Mannix would raise more money, aided by the cash-rich national Republican Party.

Initial lopsided polling, which showed Kulongoski with a lead in the “low- to mid-teens,” was misleading, said Roy Behr, a Los Angeles-based media consultant to Kulongoski. Mannix’s support was temporarily down because of heated attacks against him in the GOP primary, Behr said, while Kulongoski had emerged unscathed from the Democratic primary.

That was bound to change if Mannix could firm up his Republican base, Behr said.

Kulongoski said he got boxed in when U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Pendleton, waged an expensive and early ad campaign hammering on Democratic opponent Bill Bradbury on tax issues.

Then, when the Legislature put a three-year income tax on the Jan. 28 ballot, that gave Mannix an opening to rally Republicans around his strong anti-tax message.

Kulongoski endorsed the tax measure, albeit reluctantly, giving Mannix an issue to beat him with.

Some political analysts said Kulongoski’s campaign erred by delaying his television ads. That gave Mannix critical momentum and left his attacks unanswered for a couple of weeks.

But Kulongoski needed to save his money so he wouldn’t come up short in the late stage of the campaign, Grove said.

“Mannix was willing to put up everything he’s got,” Grove said. He took out considerable personal loans just to get on TV, in a gamble to gain respectability and boost his rating in the polls.

A similar strategy paid off for Gov. Barbara Roberts in her 1990 race, but it didn’t work for Democrat Bev Stein in the Democratic governor’s primary, Grove said.

Mannix’s gamble paid off. He was able to use his anti-tax message to unite Republicans and to convince GOP donors he had a chance in the race.

Kulongoski went on the offensive with an ad attacking Mannix’s strong anti-abortion stance. Some saw it as ineffective, noting that Mannix was able to minimize mentioning abortion in the race.

The weak economy, state fiscal crisis, war on terrorism and a possible war with Iraq also steered the public’s attention from social issues.

Still, Behr said the fact that Mannix was compelled to do TV spots countering the abortion ad proved it was effective.

Kulongoski agreed to do a record number of debates with Mannix, who skillfully used those contests to highlight his considerable verbal skills. In contrast, Kulongoski at times fumbled for words. During a critical debate televised in the Portland and Salem markets, Kulongoski didn’t maintain eye contact with the camera.

Kulongoski isn’t good at talking in sound bites, Grove said. “He’s going to deliver it with rough edges. It’s going to come out his way,” she said.

The candidate even jokes that, “You can ask me the time and I’ll tell you how to build a watch,” she said. “It was Ted’s joke and in some ways our nightmare.”

Nevertheless, focus groups showed Mannix sometimes came across as a smart aleck in campaign forums, while Kulongoski came across as a regular guy, she said.

A key to Kulongoski’s victory was his stellar performance in Multnomah and Lane counties, said state Labor Commissioner Jack Roberts, who lost to Mannix in the GOP primary and later advised the Mannix campaign.

Mannix carried the places Republicans need to carry, such as Washington and Clackamas counties, Roberts said. But he lost by too big of a margin in the Portland and Eugene areas.

When polls showed support was lagging among women in both areas, Kulongoski’s campaign brought familiar voices into those voters’ homes. In Eugene, the campaign piped in taped messages from incoming School Superintendent Susan Castillo, a Democratic lawmaker from Eugene. In Portland, the voices of feminists Gloria Steinem and Susan Sarandon were used.

Organized labor had another effective get-out-the-vote drive, Grove said.

Kulongoski also was able to tap a sizable gender gap of higher support among women. Polls showed Kulongoski had a double-digit advantage among women voters, Behr said.

Kulongoski also benefited from the increasing trend of independent voters to lean to the Democrats, Roberts said. “The independents have become structurally predisposed to favor the Democrats,” he said. It’s very difficult for Oregon Republicans to cater to independents while maintaining the loyalty of their GOP base, he said.

Many pundits thought Kulongoski made what should have been an easy race dangerously close. Behr disagrees, noting that research shows more Oregon Republicans went to the polls than Democrats.

“To pull out a win under those circumstances was a tremendous accomplishment,” he said.

Steve Law can be reached at (503) 399-6615.

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Winner	Candidate	Incumbent	Votes	Vote %
	Ted Kulongoski D		473,424	48%
	Kevin Mannix R		466,778	47%
	Tom Cox L		45,117	5%


Winner	Candidate	Incumbent	Votes	Vote %
	Ted Kulongoski D		493,385	50%
	Kevin Mannix R		490,745	50%
	Tom Cox L		4,012	0%


Winner	Candidate	Incumbent	Votes	Vote %
	Ted Kulongoski D		473,424	48%
	Kevin Mannix R		466,778	47%
	Tom Cox L		45,117	5%


Winner	Candidate	Incumbent	Votes	Vote %
X	Ted Kulongoski D		561,765	48%
	Kevin Mannix R		541,937	47%
	Tom Cox L		56,179	5%


Winner	Candidate	Incumbent	Votes	Vote %
X	Ted Kulongoski D		595,446	49%
	Kevin Mannix R		561,803	46%
	Tom Cox L		55,506	5%


	Governor
	Oregon


	Governor
	oregon


	Governor
	Oregon


	Governor
	Oregon