Posted on 06/02/2002 6:56:14 AM PDT by jern
GOP smells victory in 2002
By ROB CHRISTENSEN, Staff Writer
NEW BERN - The Guilford County Republican Party, anticipating a strong showing at the polls in November, already has reserved a room for an election-night victory celebration at the Koury Convention Center.
"I'm excited," said Marcus Kindley, a 47-year old stockbroker who is also the Guilford County GOP chairman. "I can't wait."
The 500 Republicans gathered here for their annual two-day convention were in a giddy mood Saturday, assured that the political stars are in alignment for a robust Republican year.
The latest omen was the decision by Superior Court Judge Knox V. Jenkins of Smithfield on Friday to draw legislative district lines more friendly to GOP candidates.
But the Republicans already believed that events were going their way. Senate candidate Elizabeth Dole, the former two-time Cabinet secretary and former American Red Cross president, has a commanding lead in the polls in the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms. President Bush, while not on the ballot, remains extremely popular in North Carolina.
And Republicans believe they have some powerful issues with which to bludgeon Democrats in the fall -- from tax hikes to the budget crisis.
"The low-hanging fruit is heavy on the limbs," said J. B. Coram, a 55-year-old cattle rancher from Scaly Mountain, suggesting that the Democrats were ripe for easy pickings.
In fact, the scenario in June is viewed so favorably by Republicans they are beginning to compare this year with the Republican landslide in 1994, when the Republicans captured the state House and nearly secured the state Senate, and also picked up several congressional seats.
"I look for it to be better than 1994," said state Rep. Frank Mitchell, a chicken farmer from Iredell County.
The political climate did not look nearly as rosy for Republicans last summer. The country was headed into a recession, and historically the party in the White House loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections. The impending retirement of Helms, the founder of the modern Republican Party in North Carolina, created an open seat and an opportunity for Democrats.
But the national political climate has changed because of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and polling for Republican and Democratic candidates in general has tipped more favorably toward Republicans.
President Bush has already been in North Carolina three times this year, and Vice President Dick Cheney will be in Raleigh and Charlotte later this month.
Although Bush will not be on the ticket this fall, most Republican leaders expect that Elizabeth Dole will. She has such a commanding lead in the polls that some GOP strategists think she will not only have coattails for other GOP candidates, but that her candidacy will draw more voters than usual to the polls.
Dole's candidacy was bolstered further Saturday when her famous husband, former Sen. Bob Dole, spoke to the convention. Other candidates complained bitterly that the party was giving Mrs. Dole an unfair advantage, but their protests were hardly a speed bump for her campaign.
Republicans think they got another break when the May 7 primary was delayed by the court battle over redistricting. While Dole seems to be breezing toward a primary rout against six little-known Republican opponents, the Democrats are engaged in a competitive, scrappy primary. The shortened general election campaign will also provide the Democrats with less time to attack Dole.
"Why am I worried?" laughed Jack Oliver, the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee, when asked about the delayed primary. "I've got Erskine Bowles, Dan Blue and Elaine Marshall telling everybody in North Carolina about the weaknesses of each other. Why do we need that to stop? Keep it going. Enjoy." He was referring to the three leading Democratic Senate candidates.
While the Helms seat has drawn most of the attention so far this year, the fight for control of the General Assembly is likely to move to center stage after the court ruling Friday.
The state House, where the Democrats hold a 62-58 majority, was already expected to be a battleground. Now, the new district maps -- assuming they are upheld on appeal -- are expected to put the Senate, where Democrats hold a 35-15 majority, in play.
"This will be a historic election for Republicans in the state of North Carolina," said Nelson Dollar, a GOP political consultant from Cary. "We will have an opportunity to take both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans are poised to take advantage of not only the new maps but also the issues, which are trending strongly toward the Republican Party."
The state budget crisis could also have a trickle-down effect politically, if Democratic county boards of commissioners are forced to raise taxes to make up for revenues withheld by the state.
But GOP leaders, while optimistic, also offer several cautionary notes. The economy remains a volatile X factor in the election. North Carolina, with its hard-hit manufacturing base, is likely to pull out of the recession slower than most of the rest of the country. No one knows who the voters might blame for the hard times.
The possibility of another terrorist attack might also introduce another powerful unknown into the election.
Despite more favorable districts, GOP strategists say privately that winning control of the General Assembly will not be easy. The Democrats have a stable of seasoned candidates and a much larger political war chest, and that will keep them competitive.
"All politics is local," said state GOP Chairman Bill Cobey of Durham County, quoting the old saw coined by former U.S. House Speaker Tip O'Neill. "You still have to have the right candidate at the right place at the right time at the local level."
Staff writer Rob Christensen can be reached at 829-4532 or robc@newsobserver.com.
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Born and raised in the hills, or something? With the lack of judgement you demonstrate with that comment I would bet that a lot of women in this state are probably more intelligent and more capable for the job than you.
Amazing how after an article lays out promising victories unthinkable a year ago(and control of both houses would be HUGE), all some here can do is flail themselves and moan in angst. Is the FR or DU? Do you spoiled brats want to win a forum to actually legislate and advance conservatism, or do you prefer to just wallow in your pity that political utopia won't be reached in one fell swoop? Get a grip.
This might be good for the GOP but it aint any good for Americans. The Democrat would be just as good.
The state convention spoke volumes of the intrinsic GOP weakness and continued infighting at the County and District level only confirms this trend. Several county chairman had their terms deftly "de-engineered" while one Conressional District Committee structure is in trouble.
The heir apparent to the First District Congressional chairmanship is now being challenged in a back room deal. Chairman Bill Cobey signaled volumes to the convention floor Saturday when he refused to recognize the First District Congressional candidate while naming the state's Congressmen and candidates -- thus signaling that the "down east" region of the state would once again be written off by the State party.
This means in all probability that the State House candidates east of I-95 will be on their own again as far as raising money and getting support from Raleigh. This is probably not fatal but will result in a further schism with the Eastern delegation and the state GOP organization.
This dynamic could prove fatal in the State Senate races in the east that are for the first time competitive. Long time observers wait to see if the veteran trench fighters of past races are muscled out because suddenly the Districts are winnable and the state party attempts to show "leadership" in the east.
The delayed primaries increasingly serve to up the stakes and intangibles in what is rapidly developing into a showdown between Chairman Cobey and the conservative wing of the GOP. The battlefield will be "down east" and it will be covered in political blood before all is said and done.
The shakeout from Election night will reconfigure GOP politics in North Carolina just as Judge Jenkin's new maps have re-aligned traditional party alliances. The state party chose the wrong people to pick a fight with in New Bern this weekend -- Bill Cobey and the gang that couldn't shoot straight now edging toward the abyss.
J
I mean...DUH!
Wonder of the author is a dumbed down leftist?
You are a 100% complete a$$hole!! I sincerely hope you are a DemocRAT because we do not need or want the likes of you in The Grand Old Party.
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