Posted on 07/19/2026 8:56:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing. Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.
Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River FL westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Thanks for the specs for your generator install. Buried propane tanks—how high is your water table? Mine is 3 ft in the back yard. Thus, can’t bury propane tanks here or drain the swimming pool—pool would pop out of the ground. Can’t pour gasoline onto fire ant mounds either. Sigh...
For the fire ants: Can you use Amdro? It was developed by Texas A&M, I think, and I have found it works wonders.
That still wouldn’t get all of them. They are resilient and have long connecting tunnels.
Haven’t used Amdro in years,when it didn’t work. If they changed the formula (they obviously changed the packaging), I will happily give it a try again.
Good luck. Fire ants are in a classification by themselves.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* AL/FL border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana,
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* AL/FL Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the FL/AL border
* West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City, LA
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
IT'S EVERYTHING!
This storm is about tracking,sheer,and what steers it.
I wonder how tough all three are to put together? Less sheer is a bigger storm, more time over the water usually a bigger storm. So it becomes tracking,how good is it.?
RE Fire ANts:
Get a five gallon can of gasoline. Pour it in a 5 foot circle around the hole they live in.Then pour it down the hole.
Now light it all up. See what is left.
Yeah, that’s all true... and the thing I watch for is when the pressure drops to about 1000mb: that’s roughly the point where it starts getting itself together for real development... and that threshold has been breached, though the coastline will have something to say about that.
Meanwhile, Bastardi is still the outlier in the forecast here: he still thinks it could get to a hurricane by the time it gets to the mouth of the Mississippi River. For the record, I’m seeing no models in agreement with that at all, but that point is about 36 hours away.
Thank you for the heads up!
Live cam @ Mexico Beach. Surf’s up a little. BTW, headed your way after New Year - have a week scheduled in Marathon. We really, really like the drive down the Keys.
Hoping it brings us relief in North Central Texas and beyond. Both a break from the heat and dryness.
For those not in Texas, the summer doldrums are at least 2 months of scorching heat without any significant precipitation, usually July through August. This is a killer, and getting a break in the middle of it would be wonderful.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
tracking this storm has to be extremely difficult since the center is so close to land.
Thanks very much. I don’t want to be the one charged with tracking this one.
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