This storm is about tracking,sheer,and what steers it.
I wonder how tough all three are to put together? Less sheer is a bigger storm, more time over the water usually a bigger storm. So it becomes tracking,how good is it.?
Yeah, that’s all true... and the thing I watch for is when the pressure drops to about 1000mb: that’s roughly the point where it starts getting itself together for real development... and that threshold has been breached, though the coastline will have something to say about that.
Meanwhile, Bastardi is still the outlier in the forecast here: he still thinks it could get to a hurricane by the time it gets to the mouth of the Mississippi River. For the record, I’m seeing no models in agreement with that at all, but that point is about 36 hours away.
Live cam @ Mexico Beach. Surf’s up a little. BTW, headed your way after New Year - have a week scheduled in Marathon. We really, really like the drive down the Keys.