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Posted on 05/04/2026 12:04:58 PM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007
[...]
“You may still be seeing the inflationary impact of food industry costs for the next 12 to 15 months,” he said.
[...]
If this sounds hyperbolic, consider the importance of fertiliser.
Some 40-50 per cent of the world’s food production depends on artificial nitrogen-based fertiliser, which is created by combining nitrogen from the air with hydrogen from natural gas to make ammonia. In turn, this is combined with either nitric acid or carbon dioxide to produce ammonium nitrate, or urea.
The problem is that 34 per cent of global urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz, having been produced in Bahrain, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. In addition, nearly a quarter of ammonia trades through the very same waters, along with 20 per cent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG), a vital product that allows fertiliser to be produced elsewhere around the planet.
John Denton is secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), a global business organisation that represents more than 170 countries. When Russia unleashed its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it was the ICC that oversaw the Black Sea Grain Initiative to extract exports of grain from the region.
“What the world hasn’t fully understood, outside of those involved, is the percentage of global economic activity related to fertiliser,” said the former diplomat and ex-head of Australian legal giant Corrs Chambers Westgarth.
“Everyone thinks about oil and gas, but fertiliser is actually what will cause the biggest human suffering.”
[...]
(Excerpt) Read more at thetimes.com ...
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We either deal with the Iran apocalypse culture now, or we wait until there’s nothing that can be done without a nuclear war. This is one of those situations where there is no good outcome. There are only less bad ones. Trump has decided to bite the bullet now when the outcome will be less bad than if we waited. Unfortunately, politics is politics and the Iranians know how to play it on our court. The Democrats and some bad Republicans would sacrifice all of humanity’s future just to GET TRUMP. What pathetic excuses for people they are.
John Maynard Keynes, who had large gains and losses speculating on the stock market, realized that the economics of an asset don’t determine its price, but the traders’ views of the economics of the assets do.
Everyone kicked it down the road until Trump.
But but But Greta says we have to give up fertilizer from oil to save the eurth
Back when, Con Inc was outraged when Madeline Albright said millions of deaths in Iraq due to sanctions was “worth it” .
And now we have people making the same arguments but in favor of a much larger global starvation.
Organic gardeners: “Maybe not”
Nukes should never be used.
The potted plants that get pissed on are the tallest and greenest in my back deck...human urine is very high in urea especially if you are doing carnivore diets all that protein breaks down to nitrogen based wastes in the kidneys.
I know people who grow cannabis purely on human urea high end 25% THC level stuff in Oklahoma legally at that.
Ping!
Concert for Bangladesh, Biafra, and Ethiopia all together! Can’t wait to see the band list for that one!!! Maybe Willie Nelson can join with his annual Farm Aid concerts, too!
Norway used to make nitric acid from thin air and hydro power. There is no reason they cannot today, Iceland as well as Canada all have massive hydro power reserves.
Plasma arc + air = NOx + water = nitric acid + limestone = calcium nitrate, or add NaOH or sodium feldspar minerals think pink granites and get sodium nitrates. Either are bioavailabile fertilizers.
Urea is made from methane because it’s cheap no because it’s the most elegant way to do it.
Oh an nitric acid is how you make nitroglycerin, nitrocotton, nitrocellulose, tnt too. Double base smokeless powder is two of the above , single base is usually just nitrocellulose. IMR rifle powder single base now was double and reddot has always been double based.
You can also use it to make sawdust into fine cattle feed.
https://www.farmshow.com/a_article.php?aid=27062
Time to fire up the plasma arcs boys
“Norway used to make nitric acid from thin air and hydro power. There is no reason they cannot today,”
Modern methods are cheaper.
We did it to keep the deer away. They will eat everything.
Ryan McBeth did an excellent video on why Iran WANTS a nuclear war. They need it to complete their religion and bring about “paradise.” This isn’t like dealing with the Soviets. The Soviets did not see Armageddon as a desirable outcome. The “Twelvers” do.
Here’s his commentary below, but I’d recommend watching the ten-minute video.
The video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmitxAtsP5k
The commentary:
Pinned by @RyanMcBethProgramming
@RyanMcBethProgramming
4 days ago
Support the channel at: https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com
Recent peace talks with Iran have stalled, and unless something fundamentally changes, they’re not going anywhere.
In this video, I break down why negotiating with Iran is so difficult. It’s not just politics, economics, or sanctions. It comes down to who actually holds power, what they believe, and how that belief system shapes their strategy.
A lot of people compare the Sunni–Shia divide to Catholics vs Protestants. That works at a surface level, but when you dig deeper, the differences are far more significant, especially when you look at the Twelver Shia ideology that dominates Iran’s leadership.
If you believe that a period of chaos and global conflict is necessary to bring about a messianic figure… then your incentives look very different from a typical nation-state.
And that changes everything about nuclear weapons, deterrence, and negotiations.
For uncensored video, check out my substack at:
https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com
Only rock bottom prices on methane that would be flared anyways makes the CH4 > NH3 process even close economical. If you have cheap hydro then electrons to NOx enters the chat. There is a reason steel arc furnaces are in Norway and Alcoa aluminum smelting is in Iceland both have huge hydropower at $5 megawatt wholesale or lower prices.
The historical Birkeland-Eyde process, developed in Norway in the early 1900s, consumed approximately 15 megawatt-hours (MWh) per tonne of nitric acid (HNO3).
To produce one metric tonne of 100% nitric acid (HNO3), approximately 10.5 to 11.0 MMBtu of methane is required as feedstock.This figure primarily accounts for the natural gas (methane) needed to first produce the ammonia (NH3) used as a raw material. Nitric acid is typically manufactured through the Ostwald process, which involves the catalytic oxidation of ammonia.
15MMBTU of gas at the Henry Hub spot price today is $2.87 that is not industrial.delivered gas price is from $4 to $15 depending on which state you are in and their tax and T&D structure.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_pri_sum_a_epg0_pin_dmcf_m.htm
Only ultra cheap Qatar/UAE flair gas is being used for urea , ammonia or nitric acid synthesis.
On a direct energy cost cheap hydro is under North American gas by a large margin. Again it’s Persian Gulf flare gas that is being used and now cannot be used. This is a national security issue, we should not allow for the bulk dependency or importation of critical chemicals regardless of how cheap it is they are there should be a mandated made in the USA amount and a cap on imports of it is more expensive so be it pass the cost on to the consumer and suck it up butter cup it’s a national security issue so the public opinion is irrelevant.
“Forget oil, fertiliser is the shortage that will cause the most suffering”. 5 ton of ammonium nitrate.
I keep meaning to ask Farmer Dan, who rents our crop land for feed for his dairy cows, if he’s seeing a local spike in fertilizer prices. Since it’s ABUNDANT, he uses manure which he spreads on the fields all winter (weather permitting) and well into the spring, and then again in the fall. Nothing wasted around here!
For my home garden, I have not seen any increase in Miracle Grow brand or Pete’s, which is the same ingredients, but you’re not paying for the MG, ‘brand.’
There’s always Compost Tea and our Ithaca (mule) makes LOVELY compost for me, as does the steers cycled through here. The current one (’Stew’) is now in the freezer, but he left behind a lot of lovely ‘dirty straw’ for the BIG compost pile. ;)
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