Posted on 10/21/2024 2:19:10 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Republicans have taken the lead in two of the most consequential U.S. House races in the country, which will have large roles in deciding which party takes control of the 119th House of Representatives.
An internal poll for California Republican Scott Baugh, conducted by WPA Intelligence October 17-18, finds him leading Democrat Dave Min in California’s 47th Congressional District, a seat currently occupied by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).
Baugh has 43 percent support to Min’s 40 percent, with an advantage among independent voters, Hispanic voters, and white voters. Min has slid five points since a September WPA Intelligence poll, while Baugh has climbed one point, per the memo.
Independents break for Baugh over Min at 41 percent to 37 percent, while 45 percent of Hispanics prefer Baugh and 31 percent support Min. With white voters, Baugh has a 47 percent to 37 percent edge, according to the polling memo.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
I will celebrate a Red Wave if/when it happens. Until then, it’s all speculation. I don’t believe any of it.
I see the Scott Baugh commercials all the time..the only leftist ads are all about baby murder, that’s all they have..the dem party is a death cult
I hope this is true.
It looks like Hispanics will be supporting Republicans more than whites do in a few cycles.
They already are in my area.
This is the Irvine seat
Not surprising.
If we kick out California out of the U.S., I bet it's close to 50% of the Hispanics supporting GOP at this moment.
Republican Scott Baugh leading Democrat Dave Min in California’s 47th Congressional District, a seat currently occupied by Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).
Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) trails Republican Nick Begich in the race for the state’s at-large congressional district.
These are by no means the only 2 House seats the Republicans could pick up.
Baugh has been running a solid campaign in CA-47 and some polls even earlier than this showed him competitive or leading. So this isn’t exactly news.
Begich SHOULD be very competitive in Alaska but it’s going to be close and Peltola is outspending Begich by a massive amount.
In the 40 most “toss-up” House seats however, Republicans currently hold WAY more than Democrats do — which means they have way more to lose. An overall shift to the right in the political landscape over the next couple of weeks would not only be nice, it would be necessary to save several severely endangered Republicans.
Those coin flips could go either way as things stand now so don’t get giddy yet.
It’s not a red wave until Newt calls it!
One house vote is one house vote.
How is any one seat any more important than another?
We’re hoping for a house seat here in NH by Lily Tang Williams (R).
She’s got a very good campaign strategy by running on the fact that she grew up in a communist country as a child and escaped from there and vows to fight for America.
For governor, Sununu is not running but Ayotte (R) is and her campaign slogan is that we not *mass up New Hampshire*. If I were undecided, I’d vote for her just based on that campaign slogan alone.
Illinois 17th Congressional District looks promising. Chicago Tribute just endorsed Joe McGraw.
Same here. Commericials ALL about “aburrshun” in my east coast area as well. Its ridiculous. Even during college and pro football games, which i find head scratching.
Idiots. They will print the votes they need.
IL-17 and NH-2 (especially NH-2) are ones in which a “red wave” of some kind is likely to be necessary for those seats to go GOP.
In New Hampshire, the district already leans to the left (but not overly so) and the Democrat is outspending the Democrat by a margin of 6:1. Money alone doesn’t decide who wins, but when the disparity is that large it bodes very poorly for the challenger.
IL-17 is quite similar — the district was gerrymandered to favor Democrats (but not overly so) and the Democrat $$$$ advantage there is more like 3:1 than 6:1.
Both districts are in the longshot category but under the right conditions both are winnable. And if THOSE districts manage to go to Republicans due to a general swing to the right, there are least another dozen Democrat-held districts which ought to swing along with them in addition to some easier GOP pickups (of which there aren’t as many as there should be). But it’s still a longshot.
In NH, part of that district is the Upper Valley, where Dartmouth College is. Lib city.
But in that part of the state, it seems that the liberals have most of the money so I wouldn’t consider the spending disparity an issue.
Mr. mm and I were discussing the campaign sign thing and figured that nobody is really influenced by them at all. IMO, the campaign signs are just good indicators who which neighbors I can trust and which to avoid.
I hope a Pres. Trump would refresh the tree if or when he becomes President again.
I figure there must be some threshold of campaign spending above which.... what’s the point? Do candidates need to be on the air with commercials ALL the time? Once you’ve spent a million bucks, is it really necessary to spend $5 million more just to repeat the same things over and over? So who cares if 1 candidate spends $6 million and the other “only” $4 million?
But apparently it does matter.
A candidate needs to be present in the minds of the electorate to the point where at least the voters know who he is and what he stands for & against. But once that threshold is cleared then it shouldn’t matter how much MORE someone advertises, sends out mailers, etc. It’s just annoying.
Still, there must be considerable evidence that saturation IS important, especially as pertains to low-info voters (Democrats) who must be told what to think, and who must have their hatreds reinforced constantly. The media already helps Democrats with that task 24/7, but the candidates’ ad budgets also figure in.
About the yard signs, you’ve got it right. People who use those (or any other anecdotal BS) to try to predict election outcomes are fools; but it’s certainly not a bad idea to mentally note which of your neighbors are good and which ones are bad.
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