Posted on 10/10/2024 9:06:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
This isn't exactly news at this point but the NY Times has a new poll out today which pretty much confirms what we already knew. The Senate is about to turn red and there doesn't seem to be any real hope for the Democrats to change that at this point.
Control of the Senate appears likely to flip from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party this fall, as one of the nation’s most endangered Democrats, Senator Jon Tester of Montana, trails his Republican challenger in his bid for re-election, according to a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College.
Mr. Tester, who first won election to the Senate in 2006, is winning over moderate and independent voters and running far ahead of the Democrat at the top of the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris. But as of now, that does not appear to be enough to survive in Montana, a conservative state where former President Donald J. Trump is ahead by 17 percentage points and where control of the Senate hangs in the balance.
Tim Sheehy, a wealthy Republican businessman and a former Navy SEAL who has never held public office, leads Mr. Tester 52 percent to 44 percent, the poll shows. Mr. Sheehy’s lead is a seven-point advantage without rounding.
Again, we've seen some polling evidence it was headed this way more than a month ago, so this isn't a new development. With the narrow lead Democrats currently have in the Senate, they can only afford to lose one seat if they win the White House. But that seat in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, looks like a given. That means the looming Tester loss is the ballgame unless Democrats can flip a GOP seat somewhere else.
The only two places that seems remotely possible are Texas and Florida, but the new poll released today had bad news for Dems on both fronts. In Florida, Sen. Rick Scott is leading his opponent by 9 points and in Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz is leading his Democratic challenger by 4 points, 48-44. So unless we get a really nasty October surprise in one of those races, this is over.
Nate Cohn, who writes about polling for the Times, says as much in a separate column today.
The math for Senate control is pretty simple. For Democrats, it isn’t adding up...
Before today, Democrats led nearly every Times/Siena poll of the contested Senate races for months, including in Ohio — where Sherrod Brown led by four points in a state Donald J. Trump won by eight four years ago. A positive Montana result for Democrats would have kept that string going, giving them a path to Senate control. They didn’t get it.
Schadenfreude is a dangerous game to play, especially in an election that hasn't happened yet. That's my way of saying I really through about not looking at the comments, knowing they would be full of miserable Democrats screaming at the clouds. But in the end I couldn't resist.
I will never understand how anyone can cast a vote for Rick Scott or Ted Cruz.
It's not that hard to understand. Some people would rather live in Texas or Florida than California, and for good reason. I say that as someone who lives in California.
Well this is discouraging news. If Harris wins, but the GOP takes the Senate and holds the House, they’ll block the Dems at every turn. Like they did with Obama. These republicans seem genuinely uninterested in doing the people’s work. Frustrating.
A man writes in to say.
Women of America, and their supporters, how can you let this happen? The Robert's court is decimating your liberty.
The whole comment section is a deep well of liberal despair.
Who is on track to be the next Republican Senate Leader? Don’t say Linda Graham
We’ll hold the house.
🥳🤸🎈🎈🧨🧨
Second time Ted Cruz has had to sweat a dead heat and barely survive (if he does). How can that happen, especially in Texas? Is it trashy leftist Dem Californians (I repeat myself) or newly registered anti-American terrorist illegal aliens? Or brainwashed mush headed young socialist morons?
We need the US Senate.
“Who is on track to be the next Republican Senate Leader? Don’t say Linda Graham”
I think it’s either senator John Thune (RINO-SD) or senator John Cornyn (RINO-TX).
Ted Cruz
Cruz is at least 5 points up. If he’s sweating it’s because the AC is broken. Really, Trump will take Texas this time by 12 to 14 points. Cruz isn’t in trouble against a former football player with a marginal NFL career.
Saw Cruz was behind, another said tied, then barely ahead but in margin of error.
That’s why I wondered.
Glad to find out you say he is okay again. He has flaws does a lot of good, too.
One of my few instances of forgiveness was over his turning his back on Trump at the convention the first campaign and saying vote for someone who fits your conscience or something.
Don’t tell Demonrats, but metal drinking straws and Erf’s pull on the gravity challenged don’t mix, especially on election night.
Glad Cruz is leading.
Found one past chilling article:
Colin Allred, is unexpectedly ahead of him in the opinion polls.
The survey, conducted by Morning Consult between September 9 and 18, showed Allred one point ahead of Cruz, on 45 percent to his 44 percent among 2,716 likely voters. His lead was within the poll’s margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Cruz, the incumbent Texas Senator, has had a consistent but narrowing lead over his Democratic challenger in previous polls.
From an article by Rob Beschizza September 20, 2024 on an opinion site called BoingBoing (probably not the new standard site of record. /S)
And the Republicans going to blow it by picking Mcconnell’s lackey.
I saw a newer poll that has Cruz ahead.
Yes, thank goodness.
“Don’t say Linda Graham “
Oh Schiff
too tru dat
Next leader?
Let’s just get the Senate safely, first.
We’ll cross the other “bridge” when we get to it.
Based on recent House and Senate GOP rivalries....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEJ_g3NXYac
So even if Trump wins the election and survives another assignation attempt, the Deep State wins if either of those bozos are in the running to take over from Mitch the Bitch
If we win the Senate, we can sure put a dent in Kamala’s plans
though.
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