Posted on 09/23/2024 6:48:28 AM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.
After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by former President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another Election Night surprise.
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One Democratic senator who requested anonymity acknowledged that both Clinton and President Biden were doing better in the polls against Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now.
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Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent support to 48.8 percent.
Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State.
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A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 11-16 showed Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in the state. But Republicans argue that poll undersampled Trump voters. Only 37 percent of the poll’s respondents said they voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Trump actually won 48.8 percent of the state’s vote four years ago.
“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy. They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm."
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“If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning toward Trump"...
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Undercounting Trump? Counting him as zero? or counting him as one while he really is two?
Pollster: “Last question. Were any of the answers you gave today of this survey false?”
>>>Pollster: “Last question. Were any of the answers you gave today of this survey false?”
LOL! Stats 101 “in God we Trust, others provide data.”
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