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The world’s birthrate may already be below replacement level
Washington Examiner ^ | August 23, 2024 | Timothy P. Carney

Posted on 08/24/2024 5:21:37 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

In the last few years, Americans began to realize what most Europeans and many East Asians had realized last decade: We’re in the middle of a global Baby Bust.

Birthrates are falling in almost every country. Many countries have shrinking populations.

The Total Fertility Rate is the most important measure of the birth rate. It is a modeled number that calculates how many babies each woman is having in her lifetime. Every wealthy country besides Israel has a TFR below 2, as do China and India. That means the adults in all of those countries are not replacing themselves.

A TFR of 2.1 is commonly accepted as the “replacement level.” A population with a TFR of 2.1 will, absent net migration, maintain a steady population. Lower than 2.1, and in the long run you will shrink. Higher than replacement, and your population will grow in the long run.

The world’s TFR was 2.25 in 2023, according to the United Nations — a 12% decline in just 10 years. If that pace of decline continues, the world will be below 2.1 in just a couple of years. The U.N. projects that the current TFR decline will slow, and the birthrate will still be at 2.2 in 2030.

But even if the birthrate stopped falling and stabilized where it is now, we may still be doomed to steady depopulation, according to one economist.

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde argues first that the current TFR is probably lower than the U.N.’s estimate, and second that the real replacement level is higher than 2.10.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


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To: Avalon Memories
Remember when the intelligentsia/elites were worried about world over population?

I sure do. ZPG, remember? Zero Population Growth. The Earth can't abide, what was it then, 4 billion? Wasn't all that long ago.

The problem is that quite a few social service programs require a growing population to support commitments made to the past one. Telling my nieces and nephews that they have to work 3 jobs and forget about ever owning a house so I can make my yacht payments is bound to cause a little intergenerational crankiness, and I can't just lie to them because I'm not a Democrat. "You'll have more of the Erf's resources to share than we did, kids!" rings a little hollow in retrospect.

41 posted on 08/25/2024 10:03:05 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: napscoordinator

Especially since they are a very loud segment, and they have shown their propensity to be violent, so the woke Swedes, they refuse to clamp down on theMuslims, so they clamp down on Christians because Christians heave proved to be pacifists.


42 posted on 08/25/2024 12:45:12 PM PDT by OneVike ( Just another Christian waiting to go home)
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To: metmom

Actually Muslims are pro abortion and support pro-choice candidates, because they know that while we are aborting our children, they will be having 6 to 12 children all on welfare.

Muslims play the long game. Whereas Americans play the short game for what they can get today, and tomorrow be damned, thus they are willing to abort their future.

Even Christians will limit how manny children they have so they can afford more toys for themselves and their children. While the percent of Christians who do abort abortion in low percentages, they do rely heavily on birth control to limit how many children they have.

So with Muslims playing the long game, they know that by 2014 they will be a huge part of the population.


43 posted on 08/25/2024 12:52:25 PM PDT by OneVike ( Just another Christian waiting to go home)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Oh, no! Below 8 billion? Whatever will we do?!?


44 posted on 08/25/2024 12:53:31 PM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: MinorityRepublican

Its billions more than it was 500 years ago and people had no problem increasing the level then in spite of all the early deaths from disease, wars, starvation and lack of sanitation and clean water back then...


45 posted on 08/25/2024 2:45:16 PM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: MinorityRepublican
The world’s birthrate may already be below replacement level

Mine is.

46 posted on 08/25/2024 5:28:56 PM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: MinorityRepublican

That last kid must be really handicapped!


47 posted on 08/25/2024 5:29:49 PM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: MinorityRepublican

target rich...


48 posted on 08/25/2024 5:31:08 PM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: DIRTYSECRET

What I’m more worried more about is the average education, intelligence and criminal background of those who DO procreate.


49 posted on 08/25/2024 5:31:45 PM PDT by Gaffer
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To: Tennessee Nana

...and then they invented latex...


50 posted on 08/25/2024 5:33:57 PM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: Elsie

Hi Elsie

:)


51 posted on 08/25/2024 6:39:41 PM PDT by Tennessee Nana
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To: Tennessee Nana

High?

No; just my normal, late night rant before resting in the arms of Hypnos.


52 posted on 08/26/2024 4:53:01 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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