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The world’s birthrate may already be below replacement level
Washington Examiner ^ | August 23, 2024 | Timothy P. Carney

Posted on 08/24/2024 5:21:37 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

In the last few years, Americans began to realize what most Europeans and many East Asians had realized last decade: We’re in the middle of a global Baby Bust.

Birthrates are falling in almost every country. Many countries have shrinking populations.

The Total Fertility Rate is the most important measure of the birth rate. It is a modeled number that calculates how many babies each woman is having in her lifetime. Every wealthy country besides Israel has a TFR below 2, as do China and India. That means the adults in all of those countries are not replacing themselves.

A TFR of 2.1 is commonly accepted as the “replacement level.” A population with a TFR of 2.1 will, absent net migration, maintain a steady population. Lower than 2.1, and in the long run you will shrink. Higher than replacement, and your population will grow in the long run.

The world’s TFR was 2.25 in 2023, according to the United Nations — a 12% decline in just 10 years. If that pace of decline continues, the world will be below 2.1 in just a couple of years. The U.N. projects that the current TFR decline will slow, and the birthrate will still be at 2.2 in 2030.

But even if the birthrate stopped falling and stabilized where it is now, we may still be doomed to steady depopulation, according to one economist.

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde argues first that the current TFR is probably lower than the U.N.’s estimate, and second that the real replacement level is higher than 2.10.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
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To: MinorityRepublican

Remember when the intelligentsia/elites were worried about world over population? Now they are hand-wringing over low birthrates. Just goes to show all the “crises” they blather on about are phony.


21 posted on 08/24/2024 7:18:12 PM PDT by Avalon Memories (Joe Biden puts illegal aliens first. I put America first! - Donald Trump, 5/23/24)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Fear not! You’re alive. A lot of you can have babies. You’re in the driver’s seat!


22 posted on 08/24/2024 7:20:31 PM PDT by cymbeline
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To: MinorityRepublican

“The world’s birthrate may already be below replacement level”

There are some places where that would be a good thing.


23 posted on 08/24/2024 7:21:16 PM PDT by PLMerite ("They say that we were Cold Warriors. Yes, and a bloody good show, too. 😁 " - Robert Conquest )
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To: Romulus; Mark17

[Most women throughout history have rejoiced in children, because they represented comfort and protection in old age.]

Another sign of the Last Days, IMHO

“without natural affection” - that applies to Obama’s besties, too

I wanted to have kids but I picked, ummm, not very well

Maybe I should try Southeast Asia........cough


24 posted on 08/24/2024 7:21:48 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: SaveFerris

Yes, you should. 😀


25 posted on 08/24/2024 7:37:52 PM PDT by Mark17 (Retired USAF air traffic controller. Father of USAF pilot. Both bitten by the aviation bug)
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To: Mark17

Sure seems like it these days

God bless you bro


26 posted on 08/24/2024 7:42:53 PM PDT by SaveFerris (Luke 17:28 ... as it was in the days of Lot; they did eat, they drank, they bought, they sold ......)
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To: dead; MinorityRepublican
I volunteer to do my part …


27 posted on 08/24/2024 7:51:38 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (LORD, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil.)
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To: skimbell

Thank you. You are absolutely correct.


28 posted on 08/24/2024 7:53:33 PM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: napscoordinator

Check out this report from a guy in Sweden

https://rumble.com/vqku9v-what-theyre-not-telling-you-about-sweden.html


29 posted on 08/24/2024 8:00:09 PM PDT by OneVike ( Just another Christian waiting to go home)
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To: granite

the jab causes...


30 posted on 08/24/2024 9:30:01 PM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: sten

correct. (Infertility)


31 posted on 08/24/2024 9:35:33 PM PDT by granite ("It's a Barnum and Bailey World, Just as Phony as it can be.")
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To: MinorityRepublican

My granddaughter just gave birth to her 2nd son...10 lbs 3 oz born AT HOME! She plans on having 2 more. All her children will be Christian God fearing humans. Makes me feel good to know they will be there after I’m gone.


32 posted on 08/24/2024 10:09:05 PM PDT by BamaBelle
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To: OneVike

Muslims make up 8 percent of Sweden. Unfortunately, with a small population, it’s 225K Muslims make a large impact.


33 posted on 08/25/2024 1:26:17 AM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: granite

an excellent episode.

i always felt the writers for SG-1 did a very good job on the time travel stories.


34 posted on 08/25/2024 4:57:24 AM PDT by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: BamaBelle
Well I hope she has ten more, like my wife: a beautiful but incorrigible Bama fan, gave me.

And may all your grandchildren and all my grandchildren be Auburn fans! War Eagle!

35 posted on 08/25/2024 5:29:29 AM PDT by Theophilus (covfefe)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

People actually believe this handmaid razzgarbage. I have a leftist step granddaughter, 26 years old, who wants to have her fallopian tubes removed just in case Trump wins. No reasoning with crazy.


36 posted on 08/25/2024 5:34:05 AM PDT by DouglasKC
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To: OneVike; .45 Long Colt; Apple Pan Dowdy; BDParrish; Big Red Badger; BlueDragon; boatbums; ...
Gee, wt did people expect when they abort their babies??? Since wee are so willing to sacrifice our future to the modern Idol of Moloch, which I call Planned Parenthood, God is in the process of replacing the citizens of the West with people who will protect the unborn. The Muslims and South Americans are the two most pro-life cultures on the planet.

Yet most of both them support the Left. Thus the question for them and for all is:


37 posted on 08/25/2024 7:43:48 AM PDT by daniel1212 (Turn 2 the Lord Jesus who saves damned+destitute sinners on His acct, believe, b baptized+follow HIM)
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To: sten

Indeed.


38 posted on 08/25/2024 7:50:24 AM PDT by granite ("It's a Barnum and Bailey World, Just as Phony as it can be.")
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To: daniel1212

Islam is hardly pro-life simply because they don’t condone abortion.

They are pretty pro-death otherwise.


39 posted on 08/25/2024 9:42:27 AM PDT by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon.” Amen. Come, Lord Jesus”)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

Yup—lets drop some bombs on Russia.

What could possibly go wrong?

(Of course we could get our hair mussed....)

:-)


40 posted on 08/25/2024 9:46:30 AM PDT by cgbg ("Our democracy" = Their Kleptocracy)
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