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The world’s birthrate may already be below replacement level
Washington Examiner ^ | August 23, 2024 | Timothy P. Carney

Posted on 08/24/2024 5:21:37 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

In the last few years, Americans began to realize what most Europeans and many East Asians had realized last decade: We’re in the middle of a global Baby Bust.

Birthrates are falling in almost every country. Many countries have shrinking populations.

The Total Fertility Rate is the most important measure of the birth rate. It is a modeled number that calculates how many babies each woman is having in her lifetime. Every wealthy country besides Israel has a TFR below 2, as do China and India. That means the adults in all of those countries are not replacing themselves.

A TFR of 2.1 is commonly accepted as the “replacement level.” A population with a TFR of 2.1 will, absent net migration, maintain a steady population. Lower than 2.1, and in the long run you will shrink. Higher than replacement, and your population will grow in the long run.

The world’s TFR was 2.25 in 2023, according to the United Nations — a 12% decline in just 10 years. If that pace of decline continues, the world will be below 2.1 in just a couple of years. The U.N. projects that the current TFR decline will slow, and the birthrate will still be at 2.2 in 2030.

But even if the birthrate stopped falling and stabilized where it is now, we may still be doomed to steady depopulation, according to one economist.

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde argues first that the current TFR is probably lower than the U.N.’s estimate, and second that the real replacement level is higher than 2.10.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


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1 posted on 08/24/2024 5:21:37 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

There’s hope. Ukraine widows with 3 children. More than a few Russians too. Then there’s the South African whites that don’t have the money of Elon Musk. There’s hope. I am not caucasian btw.


2 posted on 08/24/2024 5:29:17 PM PDT by DIRTYSECRET
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To: MinorityRepublican

3 posted on 08/24/2024 5:29:34 PM PDT by granite ("It's a Barnum and Bailey World, Just as Phony as it can be.")
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To: All

Iran is a nation ruled under Islamic theocracy. Yet their birth rate is 1.66 children born/woman.


4 posted on 08/24/2024 5:31:47 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Malthus is bummed


5 posted on 08/24/2024 5:34:03 PM PDT by rdcbn1
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To: MinorityRepublican

DEPOPULATION advocates are happy. The chemicals in food causing infertility, wars killing people, anti-family messaging, LBGQWERTY agenda, abortion, climate change, etc., etc. Tthe planet ia unsustainable for deplorables and useless eaters.


6 posted on 08/24/2024 5:42:26 PM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: MinorityRepublican

Most women throughout time have tried to find ways to have fewer children, and at times abort their expected children.


7 posted on 08/24/2024 5:43:21 PM PDT by rexthecat
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To: PGalt

and vaccines


8 posted on 08/24/2024 5:45:55 PM PDT by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: DIRTYSECRET

Gee, wt did people expect when they abort their babies???

Since wee are so willing to sacrifice our future to the modern Idol of Moloch, which I call Planned Parenthood, God is in the process of replacing the citizens of the West with people who will protect the unborn. The Muslims and South Americans are the two most pro-life cultures on the planet.

The Muslims are in the process of having 5 to 8 children all the while collecting welfare, and they are watching, and voting to keep abortion legal. See they know that they won’t murdering their children but Americans will.

Already in parts of Europe, Muslims out number Europeans. Today, at the rate we are going in America, by the year 2040, America will be a majority Muslim country.

If you have children or grandchildren, then they will be one day be subjected by a Muslim religion that will change the politics and the SC court to the point that Islamic law will be the law of the land.

One day rhos who are left of a people who love America, will wonder why the generations before them did not fight harder to secure their freedom. Unfortunately by then we will have sacrificed future generations, by aborting them the future in the name of the god of self.


9 posted on 08/24/2024 5:50:10 PM PDT by OneVike ( Just another Christian waiting to go home)
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To: MinorityRepublican

It would be sad to go from 7 billion back to 1950 level of less than 3 million. Actually those were great times so maybe we’ll return to that.


10 posted on 08/24/2024 6:00:01 PM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: OneVike

Already in parts of Europe, Muslims out number Europeans.

Where??????? Please provide a link.


11 posted on 08/24/2024 6:01:54 PM PDT by napscoordinator (DeSantis is a beast! Florida is the freest state in the country! )
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To: MinorityRepublican

Socialism will do that to ya.


12 posted on 08/24/2024 6:03:30 PM PDT by fruser1
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To: napscoordinator

Londonistan.

13 posted on 08/24/2024 6:05:30 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

Does it matter?. Looks like in 10 years AI will be far superior to humans and we can let the human race die off. The loonies will howl, but that’s progress.


14 posted on 08/24/2024 6:16:34 PM PDT by Diversity Is Our Weakness
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To: rexthecat

Most women throughout history have rejoiced in children, because they represented comfort and protection in old age.


15 posted on 08/24/2024 6:35:09 PM PDT by Romulus
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To: napscoordinator

I said arts, not whole countries but in parts of some European countries.

They literally have whole communities that are no go areas for anyone other than Muslims. Places the police will not even go into. Here is one link that covers France.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/europes-no-go-zones-inside-the-lawless-ghettos-that-breed-and-harbour-terrorists

In Sweden there are over 50 no-go zones that Muslims control, and in Berlin, Finland, Brussels, and in London there are no-go zones.

Do the search yourself because google is not making it easy to find articles, but that does not mean they don’t exist. I have seen plenty evidence.


16 posted on 08/24/2024 6:38:32 PM PDT by OneVike ( Just another Christian waiting to go home)
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To: napscoordinator
3 illion with a “b”?
17 posted on 08/24/2024 6:46:59 PM PDT by skimbell
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To: MinorityRepublican
Don't worry. I'm told that once President Trump is back in office he will issue an executive order
requiring all fertile females between age 15 and 35 to be drafted into the "Handmaiden Corps".

. Good times!

18 posted on 08/24/2024 6:49:10 PM PDT by Governor Dinwiddie (LORD, grant thy people grace to withstand the temptations of the world, the flesh, and the devil.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie
When President Trump gets back in office, I propose that he establish the Republic of Gilead. (This is what some people on the Left truly believe)


19 posted on 08/24/2024 7:03:52 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

20 posted on 08/24/2024 7:14:26 PM PDT by dead (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_vFiUUcBkc)
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