Posted on 08/20/2024 11:13:24 PM PDT by CFW
Vice President Kamala Harris has enjoyed a noticeable surge in the polls – particularly national polls – since becoming the Democratic standard bearer, but the rapid shift in her position has left some industry analysts questioning the apparent boost in the formerly quite unpopular vice president’s standing. In her 2020 run, she struggled to break 3% before dropping out, according to The Hill.
Prior to becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris suffered from decidedly poor approval ratings and Trump initially held the lead over her in a head-to-head matchup. The average quickly flipped, however, in the wake of several surveys showing Harris ahead. Those surveys, however, have attracted scrutiny from an array of pollsters either due to their lack of transparency about the sampling methodology or from oversampling Democrats.
“So what they're doing is they're polling fewer Republicans. They're polling a disproportionate number of Biden 2020 voters in these states that were dead even,” pollster John McLaughlin said this week on the “Just the News, No Noise” television show.
[snip]
In Wisconsin, the 2020 exit polls had 37% Republicans. In the recent New York Times poll, Siena had 27% Republican. Ten points fewer,” he also said. Harris led Trump with 50% to 46% in the state.
(Excerpt) Read more at justthenews.com ...
There was a reporter years ago, can’t remember her name, who wrote an article basically saying now that Powell says we need to go into Iraq WMD…. and he is not an idiot like Bush she supports it…
What i found interesting in the article is that she strayed into basically the same thing. Talking about Nixon’s election and how she didn’t understand how he won so big considering no one she knew voted for him.
Even way back then i remember thinking what’s so hard to understand. You are a “journalist” and your biosphere are all leftists.
The blindness she held for this concept almost made me laugh.
Like watching don lemon do man on the street interviews and shocked that black people he talked to didn’t agree with him or better yet his comment awhile back saying basically “what crime?”, I went out to eat and saw no crime.
So therefore there is no crime…
The difference between those type and myself is I see their perspective, I kind of understand it, as crazy and out of touch I think it is, they can’t understand my perspective so they act like it is fringe and wacko
Their reaction to hitlary losing is a prime example
“Continuing to do polls sitting naked in front of their computer screens at home”
Be a darling and fry up some crispy bacon... ouch
For the most part, the RCP state poll final averages were close in 2016 and 2020, but generally, Trump overperformed most battleground states by 2-3 points from polling. The one notable exception is Wisconsin, where Trump overperformed by 6 and 7 points respectively. Harris is only ahead by one there and Trump is still ahead in the RCP PA averages. I honestly think Trump wins PA and WI based on past trends and polling averages.
Michigan was a bit closer but still, Trump overperformed polling by almost 4 in 2016 and 1.5 on 2020 (that was probably the Detroit fraud). Lastly, check out the trend graphs on all the state polling. She has peaked and is on the downswing, even with the generous polling samples and nonstop coverage.
From the Bee
Study Finds Polls Are Only Accurate When Your Candidate Is Ahead
ASBURY PARK, NJ — Election year hysteria on both sides of the political aisle was calmed this week, as a new study found that polls are only accurate when your preferred candidate is ahead.
The groundbreaking study determined that you can feel free to disregard polls as “rigged” or “fake news” whenever the candidate you dislike is shown to be leading while hailing the enormous popularity of your preferred candidate whenever the same polls showed them leading.
“The validity of polls is entirely dependent upon who is leading,” said Professor Blake Rumsey of the Center for Knowing Information. “Many people make the mistake of believing polls can always be trusted, when, in fact, they are only to be believed when your candidate is in the lead. If the opposing candidate is ahead in the polls, you may immediately disregard them and label them as propaganda online.”
The general public was thrilled to learn the study’s results. “I knew it!” shouted citizen Adma Kinunen. “I always figured those polls showing the person I don’t like as in the lead were totally rigged. Fortunately, a couple of weeks later, the polls showed my candidate took the lead, which meant the polls were completely correct and trustworthy. I just wish they would be legitimate and correct all the time by showing my candidate in front.”
At publishing time, the study was able to further confirm that a candidate being shown in a black and white photo in a campaign commercial was inarguable proof that the candidate was evil.
Polling from the same people who told us joey is fit as a fiddle lol
The only polls I’d trust at this point are Trump’s internals.
Does he look worried?
No.
So votes aren’t the problem.
He won last time, too.
The problem is that Deep State counts the votes.
If folks don’t want to make it easy for Deep State to steal, there are two things the able-bodied can and should do...
Do NOT vote early.
Do NOT vote by mail.
Get your keisters to the polls on Election Day.
The question is: “How long can the mainstream media maintain the facade that Harris and Walz are moderates?” The answer is “indefinitely” unless we do everything we can to educate the public.
The “convention bounce,” whether R or D, often involves temporary enthusiasm. For example, John McCain temporarily caught up to Barack Obama in 2008. Let’s see where the polls level out in a week or two.
In the nationwide vote (not polls) we can lose by 2 points and win in the Electoral College. In the nationwide polls, because of polling bias, we can expect Trump to outperform by up to 3 points. So, we can be down in the nationwide polls by as many as 5 points and feel pretty confident that we’re going to win.
With regard to state polls, the bias isn’t uniform. But, think 3 points on average. Considering poll bias, I’m thinking we have a good chance winning all the so-called battleground states along with several of: ME at large, MN, NE #2, NH, NM and VA.
I was just looking at New Hampshire the other day. It’s a registration state, and is polled frequently enough. The state polls almost uniformly give the edge to the Democrats by a point. But, actual registration has swung Republican since four years ago. We’ve gone from a 1 point advantage in registration, to a 5 point advantage. So, I’m pretty confident we’ll do better than the polls show in this state.
Just wait until Kamala does as well!
That part is actually true.
It has never been out of print since 1953..................
I pray you are right, that alone would be worth it.
If the earth is hit by an asteroid the next day I could die happy
Trust no poll—they are set ups for the coming “Big Cheat” that will see Kammy and Walz get 88 Million “votes” over Trumps 80 Million. When Trump is shut out of the Election—maybe the masses will understand we live in a Democrat-Progressive people’s Republic. I hope I am wrong.
These pollsters, who are clearly Democrats with no interest in reflecting reality, obviously live in their own fantasy world, eh?
Trump was doing reasonably well in all of the polls against Biden, and now suddenly things are a lot tighter or have even flipped in some places.
It’s as if.... something important pertaining to the election has suddenly changed.
Like the identity of the Democrat nominee.
Let’s turn this around 180 degrees and gauge the reaction:
Let’s say Nikki Haley won the primaries easily because she was unopposed except by some pissant candidates like whoever the Republican equivalent of Dean Phillips is (some alleged “moderate” who nobody’s ever heard of).
Then the conservatives in the GOP stage a “coup” and force Haley out of the race in favor of Trump, who wasn’t even on the ballot in the primaries.
Now let’s say the pollsters DO NOT change their forecasting models, and show Trump doing no better than Haley was or perhaps even worse than her.
What would we be shrieking about THEN?
“Pollsters are still ‘oversampling’ wimmen! But Trump is the nominee now and that’s going to bring out more men as a percentage of voters! They need to account for that!”
“Also these damn pollsters are acting as if nothing has changed and aren’t factoring in our new enthusiasm!”
“We voted only grudgingly for Haley in the primaries because she was the only real choice, though she wasn’t inspiring at all. But now that Trump is our guy we have new-found ‘joy’ and enthusiasm — you can feel it!!! The pollsters still aren’t budging and are refusing to acknowledge the increased turnout on the GOP side! We’re stoked! We’d crawl over broken glass now, blah blah blah....”
“Everything is different now, but these stupid inaccurate pollsters truly live in a bubble!”
But not us.
They gotta make it look close so the BIG CHEAT won’t look so “in your face.” :(
“I was just looking at New Hampshire the other day. It’s a registration state, and is polled frequently enough. The state polls almost uniformly give the edge to the Democrats by a point. But, actual registration has swung Republican since four years ago. We’ve gone from a 1 point advantage in registration, to a 5 point advantage.”
The “trend” in NH is mostly pretend.
In November of 2020 Democrats had a 1.3% advantage in registrations. As of December 2023, over 3 years later, the GOP had caught up and had a slight advantage, nowhere near “5 points”.
But just a few days later GOP registrations DID spike. It’s almost as if some event was upcoming that Democrats wished to vote in, but couldn’t do so unless they switched parties.
Something like the high profile first-in-the-nation presidential primary. With nothing contested on the Democrat side, these switchers now could vote against Trump in January — and then against in November if necessary. They don’t have to reregister as Democrats in order to do that last part.
By a remarkable coincidence, the GOP registration surge ceased immediately after the primary.
Trouble is in Wisconsin with the evil Never Trump weasel Speaker Robin Vos and his fat slob of a minion RPW Chair Brian (judge me by my results) Schimming calling the plays, results are baked in. They are just waiting for the right moment to put the shiv in President Trump’s back
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