Posted on 06/07/2024 7:56:25 PM PDT by delta7
The steady path toward World War III continues. U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine in the war with Russia has been one long failure, but that hasn’t stopped them from escalating the war with new weapons and tactics.
Russia has met the escalation with its own escalation every step of the way. At what point do rational leaders in the West (if there are any left) pause, consider that the war is lost in Ukraine, deescalate and seek a treaty to end the war?
There’s no sign of that yet. In fact, all of the signs point to further escalation, which is a sure path to nuclear war. What good has escalation accomplished?
The West supplied Ukraine with HIMARS precision-guided artillery, but that largely failed because the Russians quickly learned how to jam the GPS guidance systems, so the missiles went off course.
That doesn’t mean the Russians shoot down or jam every HIMARS rocket Ukraine launches. Some will always get through. But overall, their effectiveness has been limited compared with expectations.
The U.S. and NATO also supplied Ukraine with Abrams, Leopard and Challenger tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles that have been left burning on the battlefield. They also require intensive maintenance Ukraine can’t necessarily provide, and are often unsuited for the battlefield conditions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainian soldiers have actually expressed a preference for Russian-made equipment over NATO’s.
Not Wonder Weapons
Meanwhile, the Patriot anti-missiles systems cannot shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles and have been destroyed one-by-one at a cost of $1 billion each. F-16s are the next wonder weapon promised. But Russia fields the most sophisticated air defense system in the world. Many planes will be shot down by Russian S-400 anti-aircraft batteries and other systems.
These planes are also old, obsolete models from NATO inventories at the end of their service lives. And they can’t even be flown by Ukrainian pilots since they barely read English (the training manuals and maintenance manuals are all in English) and have not had enough time to train.
It takes about two years to become a competent F-16 fighter pilot; the Ukrainians have barely had six months to learn. F-16s are also unsuited for the often rugged airfield conditions in Ukraine (they require pristine runways so debris doesn’t get sucked into their engines on takeoff).
They can be operated from NATO bases but that opens another can of worms.
NATO’s Latest Harebrained Scheme
What’s the next harebrained scheme from NATO? Here’s the latest example. The U.S. and its allies have green-lighted missile attacks deep inside Russia using U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missiles with a range of up to 190 miles.
These attacks have hit civilian targets such as the Russian city of Belgorod and critical military targets such as the Russian nuclear missile radar warning arrays. Both types of attacks are prompting a severe Russian response, including the final destruction of the entire Ukrainian power grid.
The attack on Russia’s early warning system is particularly provocative. Ukraine used U.K.-supplied drones to strike this radar system used by Russia to detect incoming nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The U.S. and Russia already adhere to what’s called the “launch on warning” doctrine. This means that if you detect incoming nuclear missiles, you don’t wait for them to hit their targets.
Instead, you launch your counterattack as soon as you detect the missiles. When it comes to nuclear war, it’s use it or lose it.
That puts the world on a hair trigger. Hitting a radar facility that’s part of a nuclear defense creates a blind spot in that defense and makes the hair trigger even more sensitive and launch prone.
And while Ukraine may have technically launched the missiles into Russia, it could not have done so without precise targeting data provided by the U.S. and its NATO allies. How do you think the U.S. would react if Mexico attacked U.S. targets using targeting data provided by Russia? It would directly implicate Russia and hold it responsible.
Here’s another question: Why would Ukraine attack this radar system at all? Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear missiles so it has no reason to compromise Russia’s nuclear defenses. The radar has no impact on the ground war in Ukraine. It wasn’t an airfield or ammo depot or any other militarily relevant target.
This plan is just another example of dangerous escalation by the U.S. and NATO and moves the world one step closer to nuclear war. Ukraine is all too happy to comply.
“Don’t Worry!”
Proponents of escalation dismiss these concerns, saying we’ve already crossed multiple “red lines” and Russia hasn’t directly retaliated against us. Maybe against Ukraine, but not us. We can therefore go ahead and cross another red line, the Russians won’t do anything.
First off, that just provides more evidence that Vladimir Putin isn’t some bloodthirsty maniac who can’t be deterred. He obviously can be, and clearly recognizes the dangers of escalation. He doesn’t want war with the U.S. and NATO. Why would he?
Secondly, and more importantly, NATO’s arming and equipping of Ukraine was never a red line for Russia. Western observers simply assumed that providing HIMARS, ATACMSs and tanks would be red lines for Russia. But Russia never specifically said they were. They warned about the overall threat of escalation, but these weren’t specific red lines.
But direct attacks on Russian soil are a different matter. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Putin himself have issued specific warnings about NATO facilitation of attacks within Russia itself. That’s the difference. Here’s what Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, had to say:
Russia regards all long-range weapons used by Ukraine as already being directly controlled by servicemen from NATO countries. This is no military assistance, this is participation in a war against us. And such actions could well become a casus belli. Nobody today can rule out the conflict’s transition to its final stage.
It doesn’t take a genius to understand what he means by the conflict’s “final stage.” Now, Medvedev often issues provocative statements. But listen to the comments of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. It’s about as strongly worded as a diplomatic statement can get:
I would like to warn American leaders against miscalculations that could have fatal consequences. For unknown reasons, they underestimate the seriousness of the rebuff they may receive.
Except the reasons aren’t unknown. It’s because the West is led by incompetent and reckless people who don’t know what they’re doing. They don’t understand that they’re playing with fire.
How Nuclear War Starts
I began studying nuclear war fighting in 1969 and have continued my studies for decades, which includes all the leading thinkers about nuclear war. While the experts disagree in certain respects, they all agree on one thing:
The most likely path to nuclear war is escalation. No one wakes up and says, “Nice day for a nuclear war. Let’s start one.”
Instead, war will be the result of a process of one side raising the stakes, the other side responding in kind and escalating further and so on in successive rounds until one party is backed into a corner and has no choice but to use nuclear weapons in an existential response.
Ironically, in that situation, the party that is less threatened may actually start the nuclear war in order to get the first-strike advantage. The result is annihilation: not just World War III, but possibly the end of most human life on Earth. Those that survive would probably wish they hadn’t.
This is incomprehensible. Ukraine is trying to drag the U.S. directly into the war with U.S. boots on the ground. Events may not get that far.
We may be destroyed in a nuclear World War III if this reckless escalation continues. Will anyone stop it?
One might be forgiven for thinking that you believe FR is a contest to see who can post the most crazy by noon on Sunday.
The U.S. and NATO made Russia a promise not to expand and the did it anyway. The could in 2014 wasn’t voluntary as anyone who went through the 2020 election knows from experience.
Keep making excuses for your new leftist masters and their war of distraction and profit.
One might be forgiven for thinking that you too believe FR is a contest to see who can post the most crazy by noon on Sunday.
I think they do too.
Drivel in way too many words
Nothing in the personal attack you posted is disproving of that I said.
It’s crazy to even think this. God, I hope I’m wrong.
So yesterday, Saudi ArBia has pretty much told the US they won’t need petrol dollars, joining China with the use of a gold backed currency.
Because of US sanctions and theft of Russian financial assets, the world is breaking with the US led world disorder.
SA will probably not host a Ukrainian peace talks, nor get F35s. All because of NATO.
What they are doing is trying to eliminate the 2024 Presidential election so that the Biden Administration can declare a state of emergency and cancel the election.
————
You mean like St Zelensky cancelling elections?
Drivel in way too many words
————-
…by a man who is acclaimed , seasoned and experienced. What are your “ qualifications “ ?
Fact is many noted, respected and knowledgeable Americans are finally coming to the conclusion that senile Joe’s narrative (the lead war cheerleader) about his Ukie war is nothing but lies and omissions….much like his Covid vax hoax, mandates and shut downs.
Fool me once, shame on you….fool me twice…..” It’s Easier To Fool People Than To Convince Them That They’ve Been Fooled”, carry on war cheerleaders.
I rest my case.
So yesterday, Saudi ArBia has pretty much told the US they won’t need petrol dollars, joining China with the use of a gold backed currency.
Because of US sanctions and theft of Russian financial assets, the world is breaking with the US led world disorder.
————
Eyes on the Brics summit, 40 + nations have applied for membership….including Turkey….when/ if Turkey leaves NATO ( as the Turkish papers are calling for) , it will be a strategic NATO failure….make it so.
“You mean like St Zelensky cancelling elections?”
Something like that, yes. Who’s going to fight for America if Brandon decides to pull the same crap?
I know
I put nothing past them anymore
Actually, there are 160 nations that have inquired about joining.
Biden has managed to destroy the EUs economic competition with the US, and has further created the diplomatic environment whereby sanctions, threats and blackmail are creating a world where the US will be alone cut off from most nations who don’t want our LGBT, Wars, or inflated USD.
Secret Bio Labs in Ukraine is why.
The same people who fought the Steal of the 2020 Election.
You have made no case. Again, I might add. The harder. Be better.
Please explain, or maybe even post a thread on what this NATO eastward expansion and CIA coup was then. You can't, because the history, words and actions of all the key people involved will show who is really playing games with the truth.
Like Gorbachev himself saying NATO expansion wasn't an issue. He would know, right?
Russia issuing contracts for the medals for the Liberation of Crimea, months before the Maidan Revolution. Interesting that Russia was planning to liberate Crimea, before Ukrainians were planning to liberate themselves from Yanukovych. Then there was Yanukovych looting the Ukrainian treasury when he was in power and on his way out when he fled to Russia. That was really patriotic of him.
Or the only evidence of the "CIA backed coup" is a leaked recording of Nuland discussion post Maidan Ukraine. As if every foreign diplomat in Ukraine wasn't having similar discussions about Ukraine's future government.
All of which has been discussed the forum before, all of which the pro-Russia camp ignores.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.