Posted on 05/27/2024 10:43:29 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Contrary to what many political pundits, including this one, thought would happen as soon as Donald Trump became the presumptive GOP nominee, the former president has maintained a slim but steady polling lead over President Joe Biden. As of today, the RCP Average has Trump with a 1.1% overall advantage, with Quinnipiac being the only May poll showing Biden leading, albeit by a mere 1%. By contrast, Biden enjoyed a 5.6% advantage this time in 2020, an election in which Trump never actually took the average polling lead.
Still, are there signs that Trump's lead might be softer than we think? Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, recently published a piece claiming just that. Titled "A Polling Risk For Trump," Cohn contends that Trump's lead is "built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote."
Cohn breaks down the last three New York Times/Siena national polls to show that Biden, in contrast to his overall polling malaise, has maintained a consistent lead among voters who actually voted in 2020.
Conversely, Trump has built his lead with potential voters who didn't vote in the last election (or, if you will, "less engaged" voters).
From Cohn's piece:
Importantly, these low-turnout voters are often from Democratic constituencies. Many back Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate. But in our polling, Biden wins just three-quarters of Democratic-leaning voters who didn’t vote in the last cycle, even as almost all high-turnout Democratic-leaners continue to support him.
This trend illustrates the disconnect between Trump’s lead in the polls and Democratic victories in lower-turnout special elections. And it helps explain Trump’s gains among young and nonwhite voters, who tend to be among the least engaged.
Trump’s dependence on these voters could make the race more volatile soon. As voters tune in over the next six months, there’s a chance that disengaged but traditionally Democratic voters could revert to their usual partisan leanings. Alternately, they might stay home, which could also help Biden.
These "irregular" voters, Cohn points out, lean Democrat, yet are "far less likely to identify as liberal" and "more likely to worry about the economy" than social issues like abortion. In other words, they likely feel the lifestyle crunch imposed by the Biden regime and are expressing support for Trump as an alternative.
Will that pain and frustration turn into actual results on election day? Will those "irregular" voters turn out for Trump, or will they stay home or, worse, come home to Biden? Nobody knows, even Cohn, who points out in his piece that a quarter of voters in any election did not vote in the last one. So, there is plenty of room for as many Trump voters as possible to turn out.
Still, it is clear that Democrats are taking heart from Cohn's piece:
Yes, Trump is strong among non-voters, and most of them will non-vote. https://t.co/kTRec9Ns12— Richard Stengel (@stengel) May 24, 2024
It'll be up to Trump and Republicans to turn these "irregular" voters into actual voters in November.
There weren’t 100,000 people there. I was there and even the NY Post only made a generous estimate of 8000 to 10000. I thought it might be around 10k.
Yeh but the war in Ukraine and your tax dollars aren’t stopping anytime soon that will be more then enough to offset any Israeli offensive. Especially when Trump is telling everyone he’ll end the war within 24 hours.
Biden: True. But when I lie it’s on a comfy mattress in the Lincoln Bedroom. For hours and hours.
One thing that is the wildcard we now have two presidents with actual track records that you can compare stats on and despite how many times they make it seem like things are rosy most people know they had it better under Trump.
>So I guess the 100,000 that showed up for Trump in Wildwood doesn’t count?<
All those 100,000 didn’t help last time. And we know exactly why.
DEMOCRATS/PLUS cheated, bribed. threatened, coerced.
They want us to know what they’re doing to DT is what they can do to any of us.
Scared yet?
We have to work ,donate $ and get early voters and registrate voters like Scott Pressler and Turning Point are doing, the rallies are great but I think make too many people complacent and too many Trump supporters don’t vote-ran into a couple-said they jus thad a busy day on electio n day-WHAT?
RE: Stfu you trolling idiot.
So, you haven’t answered my question and instead end up using profanities? ( yep, your abbreviation does not minimize what you just wrote ). I direct you to the rules of FR against what you just said.
60% of people hate Pedo Joe, nothing is going to change that between now and November
There has been more than one poll showing Trump with larger leads among registered vs. likely voters.
This is where GOTV operations are crucial. The vote of an unmotivated / disinterested voter counts just as much as an enthusiastic voter if they actually show up to the polls and vote...(or in the case of vote harvesting, someone showing up with a prefilled ballot going door to door getting them to sign off and then dropping it in the drop box).
Basically this piece says “turnout” is what matters. As well as stopping the steal. And stealing happens.
Has someone actually found an accurate method to “poll” fraud? We aren’t dealing with free elections anymore, Dorothy.
“Harris will be forced to do a Nixon and resign. This will start a century of Democratic rule.”
^
Up to 30 Million invaders in motor-voter states could swing the election Biden’s way, initiating one-party rule for decades.
(”The Party”—we were warned).
Scott Morefield is trolling us using “Townhall”.
Morefield suffers from Trump Derangement SYndrome,a man who is a RIBO country club dickhead.
Hrere is another of his trolls against TRump:
https://www.newsweek.com/second-trump-term-should-worry-conservatives-lot-opinion-1869602
Just an other “Orange Man Bad” supercilious writer.
Scott Morefield’s writing is not worth a pinch of coonshit.Bsically it is click bait anti TRump propaganda.
Of course we should. When playing a football game, if you have the lead, you don’t stop playing your heart out until the game is over. President Trump should continue campaigning his heart out until he’s won on election night.
👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Ef them polls.
Put your ear to the ground and here the rumble of Trump supporters
That is exactly what we should now recognize is being done.
What kind of moron would want that POS joke Joe Biden again?
Soft could mean “how easy will will the cheat be to achieve”?
I completely agree.
So you believe the vote count in 2020 was legitimate....
____________________________________________________
In the vast majority of places yes. In metropolitan areas (especially swing state metro areas....no). But the reality is that nearly 4 years after 2020 Biden is sitting in the White House.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.