Posted on 04/12/2024 8:23:52 AM PDT by Red Badger
A recent research paper by four noted economists, including Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary under Barack Obama and former Harvard President, discovered that the real inflation rate during the Biden years, using pre-1983 calculations reached 18% in 2022.
The number is the highest inflation rate the country has seen in over 50 years.
This research project was published by these four authors at the nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research in late February and is just now making waves.
Marijn A. Bolhuis is an economist in the Macro Policy division of the International Monetary Fund’s Strategy, Policy, and Review (SPR) Department. Judd Cramer is a Harvard Economist.
Karl Oskar Schulz a Harvard undergrad whose analysis found that the higher cost of borrowing is linked to persistent consumer gloom.
Larry Summers is a former Harvard President and Barack Obama’s Secretary of the Treasury. Larry worked as the chief economist of the World Bank from 1991 to 1993.
The researchers also found that if the pre-1983 calculations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or inflation rate has not come back down under 7 percent since its peak in 2022.
The chart above shows thee Official and Estimated Consumer Price Index (CPI) since 1972. The estimated CPI reached 18% under Joe Biden, the highest number in over 50 years. via Forbes This study explains why American consumers are feeling squeezed under Joe Biden – inflation is eating up all their money.
Larry Summers tweeted out the study in February.
Forbes reported:
Numerous commentators—especially those defending President Biden’s economic record—have puzzled over why Americans are sour about the state of the U.S. economy. Unemployment rates have returned to pre-pandemic lows, commentators correctly point out, and the official rate of inflation is declining. So why are Americans ignoring the view of many experts that the economy is doing well?
According to a striking new paper by a group of economists from Harvard and the International Monetary Fund, headlined by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, the answer is that Americans have figured out something that the experts have ignored: that rising interest rates are as much a part of inflation as the rising price of ordinary goods. “Concerns over borrowing costs, which have historically tracked the cost of money, are at their highest levels” since the early 1980s, they write. “Alternative measures of inflation that include borrowing costs” account for most of the gap between the experts’ rosy pictures and Americans’ skeptical assessment…
Joe Biden’s Record Inflation
What would inflation look like under the pre-1983 formula?
Bolhuis et al. then went on to see if they could recalculate the official CPI numbers using a pre-1983-like formula that incorporated the cost of mortgage interest, auto loan interest, and credit card interest on the cost of living. They found three things: first, that the pre-1983-like formula led to a dramatically different estimate of inflation in 2022 and 2023, peaking at 18 percent in November 2022.
Second, they found that consumer sentiment—as measured by the widely-used University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment—correlated much more strongly with the pre-1983 CPI formula than it did with the modern one that excludes interest costs.
Third, they found these differences to be also true in Europe: higher interest rates were correlated with lower consumer sentiment, and vice versa.
Everyone knows it’s true.
Even Democrats know it’s true. They were just hiding how bad it really is.
Shadowstats.com .... telling the truth for those who want to see it for quite a while now.
Inflation, unemployment etc. The govt cooks the books on everything.
“Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.”
― George Orwell, 1984
“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”
― George Orwell, 1984
BTTT
Save your corrections for your school papers. Last I checked, I am afforded an opinion.
France invented the guillotine.
France invented the guillotine.
See how flat the red trend is during President Trump's term, and how steep it gets during Biden's term (green)?
Biden's rate of change may be slowing down, but overall prices are way up since he took office.
Here is the chart for overall inflation. It's clear in this chart that even housing, oil, and gasoline inflation were normal during the Trump administration, but these economic sectors were even harder hit by Biden's inflation.
Red line: Inflation trend during Trump presidency.
Green line: Inflation trend during Biden presidency.
This is the chart for "core inflation" that excludes food and energy.
Red line: Inflation trend during Trump presidency.
Green line: Inflation trend during Biden presidency.
-PJ
Carter didn’t open the gates for foreign invaders without even attempting to determine if they are enemy combatants.
This needs to be spread far and wide.
bttt
I don’t know anyone who actually hated Carter.
Most agree he was a awful President.
But as a person he was a decent if not misguided leader.
Not true of the corrupt demented pervert clownthey installed in 2020.
Carter = Boat People from Cuba. Cuba emptied their prisons and mental institutions, put them on boats and sent them to the US.
I strung MILES of Concertina Wire all over Fort McCoy, WI where a lot of them were temporarily housed. A co-worker of mine was dumb enough to befriend one of them. He stabbed her to death in front of her young daughter.
So, Personally? Carter is ahead of Brandon right now, IMHO. As I said, Ill wait for all the data to be in on Brandon. For some reason he’s currently bulletproof. :(
I worked two jobs in 1978. I worked for a rent car company and at a gas station. My job was to sit in gas lines to keep the fleet full of gas. On odd/even days I would swap out license plates. At my gas station job, my boss would let me fill up my tank when ever I needed to. Sometimes I got gas for free.
Problem solved. See?
I spent most of 1978 at Fort Jackson, SC. Basic Training, then AIT. No jobs, no gas, no future where I lived at the time under Carter.
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