Biden’s best path to reelection runs through the Great Lakes and not the Sun Belt

CNN ^ | Sat February 3, 2024 | Harry Enten

[MinorityRepublican]

Just how does Joe Biden win reelection? National polls show him trailing Donald Trump more often than leading him – a rare position for an incumbent to be in at this point in the campaign.

These national polls, though, mean little. You win elections state by state through the Electoral College. Back in 2020, the closest battleground states (i.e., those decided by 3 points or less) were either around the Great Lakes (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) or along the Sun Belt (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina).

Biden would be reelected if he wins all the states in either region, so long as he also carries the remaining states he took in 2020.

At this point, though, it seems his easiest path to a second term runs through the Great Lakes rather than the Sun Belt.

Look at two Fox News polls released Thursday. Biden and Trump were tied in Wisconsin – a state the president won by less than a point in 2020. In Georgia, another state Biden won by less than a point four years ago, Trump held an 8-point edge.

These Fox News polls are not outliers. Trump hasn’t led (even within the margin of error) in any Wisconsin poll this cycle that meets CNN’s standards for publication. On the other end, he hasn’t trailed in any Georgia poll in well over a year.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

CNN just doesn't get it. They know that "You win elections state by state by being the vote counter in battleground states."

[brownsfan]

The imbeciles around here would vote for a pickle jar to avoid voting for Trump.

[Candor7]

Push ta Pollas.........

They are starting extra early.

Joe has no path to win.....and the MSM,including Fox, do not get that yet. And when Trump wins they will all be seized with screaming paroxysms of denial.

You caint make this shit up,,,,,,but they sure do try.

[TexasFreeper2009]

the way I see it Trump has to either win, Penn or Michigan to be re-elected.

All the other states are pretty much set in stone at this point.

[Nateman]

Biden’s best chance of reselection runs through highly frauad friendly vote by mail.

[MinorityRepublican]

the way I see it Trump has to either win, Penn or Michigan to be re-elected.

The Democrats know that they'll have to expand the fraud in Detroit to make sure Joe wins. As long as it's legal to mail in a ballot, I don't see how we'll stop it.

[ClearCase_guy]

Trump wants to re-shore manufacturing and heavy industry.
Biden wants everyone to be slaves of the government.
Sounds like the Rust Belt prefers slavery?

[TexasFreeper2009]

I was looking at the current polls and if you use 270towin map and give Trump any state he is up by 5 or more in average of polls of that state..

Trump is already at 272 (enough to win)

with Arizona sitting almost at +5 which isn’t even needed.

The big one is Michigan, where Trump is currently up big. If Biden is somehow able to move the needle there 5 points then it is a horserace, and honestly his only hope. Team Biden knows this obviously which is why it is nothing but Michigan Michigan Michigan coming from his campaign.

[Signalman]

These national polls, though, mean little. You win elections state by state through the Electoral College.

Trump: N.Carolina: +10
Georgia: +8
Nevada: +8
Michigan: +5
Wisconsin: +5
PA: +3

[Responsibility2nd]

Biden should run through the ice cream shop. That worked for him so well in 2020.

[digger48]

That’s why Joe is spending a lot of time in Philly these days

[Jim W N]

Stupid CNN Q: Just how does Joe Biden win reelection?

A: He doesn’t.

[The Great RJ]

Just have Biden mummified and he can be POTUS forever like the Great Inca no need for elections. Wouldn’t make any difference he is just a figurehead anyway.

[edie1960]

The big one is Michigan

>>>I agree with you—along with PA.

PA really worries me, while I feel pretty good about Michigan as long as Brandon doesn’t replace Camel-toe with Whitmer, whose popularity boggles my mind.

Whitmer was the worst governor in locking down her state except for allowing her husband to go boating, fishing.

In the final analysis, I hope PDJT can somehow expand his EV map by winning Nevada, Virginia, NH or either NJ or New York.

[x]

Biden would be reelected if he wins all the states in either region, so long as he also carries the remaining states he took in 2020.

So that means that he'd have to carry Arizona and Georgia to ensure that if he lost one of the Great Lakes States he'd still win.

I would say that Trump has a good chance of carrying Wisconsin in a fair election, but the last one wasn't really fair, was it?

Pennsylvania is going to be a stretch for Trump. Fetterperson's newfound moderation is going to help Biden this year.

[thecodont]

I never saw any “how can Trump best win reelection” articles from the mainstream press back in 2020. They’re so EAGER to promote a Biden win.

[DoodleBob]

Trump has to flip 38+ electoral votes.

We NEED Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona or some combo theirin.

And this is against the backdrop of mail-in voting, which isn't going away.

Many FReepers are getting it right - we need not break law like the Others, but at least bring a knife to a knife fight.

flamberge had some good ideas too:

To the extent that we have any legal and peaceful means of winning "elections" it will depend on adopting new tactics and strategies to game the mail-in ballot system.

Committing ballots as early as possible is part of what is needed. Get the ballots with relentless daily tracking of Republican voters and provide them with every possible assistance to turn in a vote.

Preventing last-minute injection of fraudulent ballots is another critical part of what is needed.

Campaign advertising must change. Issues don't really matter all that much. Hard to accept, but how many times does that need to be demonstrated? "Tribal" affiliations override just about everything else.

The biggest factor, however, is not race, nor ethnic background, nor religion. It is gender. Quite simply, the Republicans must focus on appealing to men.

Without any apology, the Republicans must project hyper-masculine imagery in everything they do, even to the point of caricature.

It is the one strategy that can draw enough Black and Hispanic men to cripple the Democrat voter base. They have become too dependent on 90% turnout in those demographics, to win without them. Even a minor shift will make a major problem for the Democrats. They would need to extend their fraud efforts to preposterous levels in order to deal with the defectors.

The Democrats might indeed extend fraud to such an obvious level that they can demonstrate no further need for elections ever again.

If so, then everybody will proceed to settle political conflicts by other means.

Really, thoughtful ideas.

[LegendHasIt]

Biden’s best path to reelection runs through stuffed ballot boxes and crooked ballot counters, (both human and machine), It has almost nothing to do with actual voters.

[edie1960]

We NEED Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona or some combo theirin.

>>>IMO, Michigan & Georgia are looking good.

Wisconsin is 50/50

I would like to say there’s hope in Arizona but the new GOP chair there (after the attempted bribe of Kari Lake) said that they’re broke.

PA is extremely problematic what with the new automatic voter registration efforts endorsed by Gov. Shapiro and again precious little GOP funds.

The most important state could be Nevada, especially since PDJT has the endorsements of both the Governor & Lt. Gov.
Maybe they can finally thwart the old Harry Reid cheating operation.

Essentially, everything NEEDS to work out perfectly for President Trump to return to his rightful place in the WH.