So if this continues to be the face of the new world of work, how would one capitalize on it?
Technology, specifically business tech for the home office.
Services, such as day-care/child care outside the home.
Delivery services?
In-home tech support?
What does the pivot look like?
Government subsidized housing for the homeless? If only there were 2.6 billion available to do it.
So I will modify my prediction to " the large cities will erode faster and collapse after the federal debt gets so large that it explodes. Then the people who caused this and capitalized on it will look around for somebody else to blame. And the refugees pouring out of the cities will make the Mexican border look orderly."
The “Victory Gardens” of yesteryear will become the “Survival Gardens” of tomorrow........................
This was obvious to anyone paying attention after they shut the economy down.
Nearly every company in existence, that would never ever ever considered work from home was forced to it and many found out, they can do it reasonably... so the bean counters wouldn’t take long to ask why are we paying $100 or more a square foot in some markets for commercial real estate?
When their commercial leases expire, many will reduce their footprints significantly... and it’s going to be ugly.
The new technologies have made large central office locations unnecessary and often obsolete. Urban America is barbaric and unlivable. Decent, rational people do not wish to work, reside or send children to public schools in these places.
I’m usually an optimist by nature.
But I see absolutely no reason for any optimism now.
Our political system has failed. Our debt has exploded. We’re moving to digital currency. The global political balance has been trashed. AI is here.
This is all bad. Very bad.
Science fiction writer William Gibson is two-thirds through a trilogy called the “Jackpot Trilogy”. The name is sarcastic because it posits human civilization hitting the “jackpot” of every imaginable disaster all at once early in the 21st century. Debt, war, pandemic, financial collapse, technology advances. All bad. All at once. The jackpot collapses civilization and causes enormous depopulation.
I think we’re there.
But for most folks, it's also their social life.
People need people.
Some corporate space will be modified for meeting rooms, hoteling, conference rooms etc. Space that can be turned over and LED signage that will change when the occupant for that day changes.
Software like microsoft teams will continue to take advantage of video conferences and separate project management software.
I think the hospitality industry, coffee shops etc can provide more private settings for hour meetings that can be rented out for small meetings.
Most office properties as per the article has always been referred to as “class a” in the business. It was most expensive, with lower returns, but was the most solid, stable type of property to own. Gold standard for long investors who want less headaches.
Now it’s like a owning doom. I have no idea what will happen to all of this property if everyone just stops using it.
How about construction companies that specialize in converting office space to apartments.
There is a major apartment shortage in the USA. Especially in some of our major cities where rent for a two bedroom apartment exceed $3000/month. This also would benefit the city because it brings people back into the city to live.
New York isn’t any more
Decline is progressing
That’s racist.
Office workers commuting into work was the last economic lifeline of most of these cities. Now these cities are just massive ghettos. Empty commerial buildings don’t generate tax revenue. Would they make good housing for useless eaters? Yes.
As an aside, I noticed one potential retirement spot I’ve been considering had a couple of houses under construction. Until they weren’t. Now they’re maybe half finished, and the builder just walked away. They’ve got a roof and tyvek, but that’s it.
All great comments so far, but what I am looking for are ways to capitalize on this new work life.
What else changes?
More virtual assistance, mobile techs for yhe home office, something else that has not been offered yet?
The CRE time-bomb is grabbing a lot of headlines over the last week, but it has been building for a couple of years. What is going to be interesting to me is the head-count effects.
Companies are starting to push their people to go back to the offices. They’d like them to be back full-time, but there’s resistance. The compromise position from the companies is to get people there 3-days/week, and there’s still resistance.
Where is this headed? A few thoughts:
1. People will get fired. They’re largely valuable to their current employers because of company-specific knowledge and know-how they possess ON TOP of their talent stack. Replacements will only have the talent stack. I expect this to translate into lower wages for the replacements and more use of contractors rather than FTE’s.
2. Union power in white-collar jobs will be destroyed. How do you organize if people are kept apart. How do you organize contract-workers? (btw - this is a good thing!)
3. Promotions, earnings perks (stock options, bonuses, etc.) will accrue to those that “go to work”, not stay at home. This will make stay-at-home workers voice even more frustration, as they’re stuck in dead-end jobs with no advancement & inflation-only pay increases (at best) or possibly wage DE-creases. Management will view people as interchangeable parts.
4. Companies will adopt 2-tier wage structures. Pay rate of $X if you’re an in-office employee; pay rate $Y if you’re a home-based employee. Obviously, $X>$Y The turnover and attrition will naturally allow for this over time.
Right now, these skirmishes between companies and workers are going on nationwide. And, with the low U-3 unemployment, workers have an asymetric power advantage. But the tide is turning (witness the massive tech layoffs of late and pending recession). After-all, the companies OWN those jobs; no company, no jobs. The intransigent-class workers don’t see it coming, but they are the instruments of their own demise. It’s going to get ugly.
This has been absolutely predictable since they started the scamademic.
NYC offices have started to move to Charlotte.