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Blackout risk: Nation’s largest grid operator warns of capacity shortfalls
Washington Examiner ^ | February 24, 2023 | Jeremy Beaman,

Posted on 02/24/2023 4:27:54 PM PST by george76

The nation's largest grid operator is warning it may face a major coming shortfall in electric generating capacity as utilities retire more and more traditional fossil fuel power plants.

It's a challenge facing grid operators across the country as power generators mothball coal and natural gas-fired plants for various reasons, such as reducing high maintenance and regulatory compliance costs or cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

...

PJM Interconnection, which manages grid operations across 13 states and the District of Columbia, published new analysis Friday showing retirements outpacing new additions in the coming years that could leave its service area short of thousands of megawatts of capacity by 2030.

"Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces, including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known," it said in its report.

PJM said this shortfall is on track due to a "potential timing mismatch" between retirements, growing electricity demand, and the pace of new generation coming online.

Nearly 40,000 megawatts, or 40 gigawatts, of generating capacity in PJM is forecast to retire by 2030, 90% of which is coal and natural gas.

PJM's "low entry scenario" envisions an addition of just over 15,000 megawatts over the same period.

Under its high entry scenario, capacity additions through 2030 would be twice that at 30,000 megawatts, still short of making up for retired capacity.

PJM serves more than 65 million consumers living between northern Illinois and the Eastern Seaboard, including all of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey.

Traditional generators are retiring rapidly due to government and private sector policies as well as economics, PJM noted.

Coal retirements are forecast to make up well over half of all planned generation retirements in 2023 at 8.9 gigawatts, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Utilities are under increasing pressure from the Biden administration and investors to phase out fossil fuel resources, especially coal, for the sake of mitigating climate change.

The administration, which has a goal of achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035, is also drawing up a suite of regulations to crack down on coal plants after the Trump administration liberalized rules.

The report follows multiple warnings from regulators at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation that utilities, lawmakers, and grid operators need to act to better manage the pace of retirements or else risk more of the blackouts seen during recent extreme weather events.

Several utilities, including TVA and Duke Energy, had to implement controlled outages during peak demand periods in December when winter storm Elliot struck.

PJM had its own issues with generator outages during the storm, during which coal made up nearly half of additional generation, according to a report released Thursday by America's Power, a coal-fired power interest group.

Retiring those resources without having replacements in order further threatens grid reliability, NERC has said.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; US: New Jersey; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: agw; bideneffect; bidenlegacy; bidenvoters; brownouts; climatechange; coal; electric; electricgenerating; electricity; fossilfuel; fubar; generating; grid; nationwidewarning; naturalgas; powerplants; prepper; preppers; regulations; shtf; utilities; waroncoal
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To: george76

I believe this is what our betters call “the new normal”. Get used to it! Adjust your expectations and be prepared for a lower standard of living.

In a year or two from now, children will be taught it has always been this way. The best way to deal with such is to reduce your carbon footprint. This summer, turn off that air conditioner in order to do your part. Better yet, remove the AC system from your home entirely.

That white supremacy is hard on a nation.


21 posted on 02/24/2023 6:43:57 PM PST by CFW (old and retired)
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To: george76

The ones we clearly see coming never seem to get us.
Like Y2K, for example.

We still haven’t figured out where millions of former participants in the pre-COVID work force have disappeared to.
For all we know by the time we have less generating capacity it may not matter because we will be much fewer in number.
For whatever reason.


22 posted on 02/24/2023 7:04:37 PM PST by JustaTech (A mind is a terrible thing)
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To: george76

Hopium to the rescue.


23 posted on 02/24/2023 7:10:33 PM PST by RetiredTexasVet (Biden not only suffers fools and criminals, he appoints them to positions of responsibility. )
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To: george76

I figured this is coming so I’ve been working on a solar solution to hold up critical things in a rolling blackout scenario and will be getting a small generator as well.


24 posted on 02/24/2023 7:13:39 PM PST by DonaldC (A nation cannot stand in the absence of religious principle.)
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To: DonaldC

Get a book on farm life before the REMC became law.


25 posted on 02/24/2023 7:15:09 PM PST by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: george76; 4everontheRight; 4Liberty; 5thGenTexan; 45semi; 101stAirborneVet; 300winmag; ...
Prepper ping - "PJM Interconnection, which manages grid operations across 13 states and the District of Columbia, published new analysis with early (Fossil fuel) retirements
I am sure some agency will get right to it,.... eventually !
Now, bring on the electric cars which will increase usage demand without considering an electrical generating source.

" The nation's largest grid operator is warning it may face a major coming shortfall in electric generating capacity
as utilities retire more and more traditional fossil fuel power plants."

"It's a challenge facing grid operators across the country as power generators mothball coal and natural gas-fired plants for various reasons,
such as reducing high maintenance and regulatory compliance costs or cutting greenhouse gas emissions."

"PJM Interconnection, which manages grid operations across 13 states and the District of Columbia, published new analysis Friday showing retirements
outpacing new additions in the coming years that could leave its service area short of thousands of megawatts of capacity by 2030."

"Retirements are at risk of outpacing the construction of new resources, due to a combination of industry forces,
including siting and supply chain, whose long-term impacts are not fully known," it said in its report."

" PJM said this shortfall is on track due to a "potential timing mismatch" between retirements, growing electricity demand, and the pace of new generation coming online."

26 posted on 02/24/2023 7:31:24 PM PST by Tilted Irish Kilt
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To: unread
> Maybe we could hookup some electric cars in series with a generator and make some extra power.


27 posted on 02/24/2023 7:44:10 PM PST by dayglored (Strange Women Lying In Ponds Distributing Swords! Arthur Pendragon in 2024)
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To: dayglored

Perfect


28 posted on 02/24/2023 7:45:01 PM PST by Nifster ( EI see puppy dogs in the clouds )
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To: george76

Has the country hardened the grid against the all to easy crippling effects of a single well positioned EMP? If not then there is nothing the utilities can do anyway.


29 posted on 02/24/2023 7:49:47 PM PST by immadashell (Save Innocent Lives: Ban Gun Free Zones)
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To: george76

Be sure to thank your local democrat politician when ya see em, too!!! /s


30 posted on 02/24/2023 8:26:34 PM PST by lgjhn23 ("On the 8th day, Satan created the progressive liberal to destroy all the good that God created...")
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To: george76

We are at and have been at WAR. Asymmetric warfare looks lke this.


31 posted on 02/24/2023 11:46:16 PM PST by MHGinTN (A dispensation perspective is a powerful tool for discernment)
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To: Da Coyote

reminds me of what the patriots did to their British owners, ransack and burn


32 posted on 02/25/2023 2:53:10 AM PST by ronnie raygun
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To: george76

bttt


33 posted on 02/25/2023 3:20:06 AM PST by linMcHlp
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To: george76

A democrat caused problem.


34 posted on 02/25/2023 3:27:20 AM PST by Vision (Woke is communism and it has no place in America. Election Reform Now! Obama is an evildoer.)
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To: Tilted Irish Kilt

Southern Companies has plenty of generating capacity for the SE, in large part because of Plant Vogle (sp?) coming on line. The reactors are not even fully powered up yet.

But Southern Companies does wheel power around the US grid. So they participate in this mess.


35 posted on 02/25/2023 4:32:34 AM PST by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur: ad ferre non, velit esse sine defensione)
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To: george76
Amid explosive demand, America is running out of power - 04/05/2024
36 posted on 04/06/2024 6:28:13 PM PDT by linMcHlp
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