Posted on 02/09/2023 4:06:27 PM PST by thegagline
RUSSIA has hundreds of thousands of soldiers, thousands of tanks, and hundreds of warplanes preparing for a new assault, Ukraine has warned.
Vladimir Putin is believed to be preparing for a massive new offensive in the coming weeks to coincide with the first anniversary of the war in February 24.
Ukraine has been monitoring the military build up as they continue to plea for Western support - including during Volodymyr Zelensky's visit yesterday to London.
Zelensky hailed the UK for its support - but warned it may not be enough, and called for modern fighter planes.
The new assault is feared to be "much bigger" than the first wave which stormed across the country towards Kyiv almost exactly one year ago.
Russia is believed to be massing 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armoured vehicles, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters for the attack, according to a Ukrainian official. ***
(Excerpt) Read more at thesun.co.uk ...
They had a division of Interior Ministry militia with them, in the convoys advancing on Kiev. They left some of their vehicles behind when they retreated, full of riot gear.
Thanks. I used google translate . The article certainly provides a very different (realistic) view of Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut.
These links below are war reporting. The first two I follow every day. The second two just popped up but were highly educational if you want to actual war footage.
First one is a retired Brit named Alexandra who is working in retirement as private journalist. His daily recaps of both sides news and the analysis is fantastic.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwGpHa6rMLjSSCBlckm5khw
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFalpOwNCY8
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis - is the second link which just pure Ukrainian released battle posts and Russian realeased battle posts combined to show movement of combat on the front lines!.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5cpMXFCVrg
Link three is random news link: Russian surprise attack in North Ukraine. Sumy Oblast attacked with almost 100 strikes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWRnHoeQkZk
Wagner Troops Overrun Ukrainian Defenses North of Bakhmut. Paraskoviivka/Krasna Hora Encircled (Not sure who the NWE WAR REPORTS are or their political tilt)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-CwALj-Ggs
In fairness, as an utterly disinterested observer, it's been going both ways. Say anything mildly anti-Russian and you're a stooge of the globalist/neocon warmongers, say anything mildly anti-Ukrainian and you're Putin's butt boy.
I've honestly just been reading the comments to see how quickly they dissolve into name calling. Usually it's by the 5th post.
And you know all of that, how?
As annoying as that childishness is, what is strange is how anything negative about Russia or Putin means FR is in for the most anti-America attacks imaginable.
I’ve never seen a site with more America hate on it than we see on these threads on the Russian invasion.
bkmk
That’s about the silliest thing I’ve ever read.
Military Balance IISS 2022, etc.
World Air Forces
Janes
Etc. Pull up wiki “Ukraine Air Force” and they have the summaries of these prewar states. Ukraine certainly still has the bulk of its equipment - its not been recorded as losing it, because for the most part it was never committed. And certainly the vast majority of its air force personnel and facilities was not overrun.
Also by following the news and “open source” in trade pubs.
Ex-
Etc. Many articles on MiG parts and maintenance and training.
I also appreciate your optimism that it holds out until the 5th post ;-)
I guess we shall see in a week or two.
FYI tanks require weekly maintenance to remain usable. The vehicles pictured have not moved in years, evidenced by all the vegetation.
it would be interesting if they did have 500K new soldiers but this is likely just Z-ski’s way of begging for new “free stuff”. The dog probably ate his homework.
After the Russians lose 1200 tanks in the next offensive, they can replace them with some of the units in the picture. The Ukrainians do not have such an option.
And it is an old picture. There are over two dozen such areas. Every one of those storage areas now has an active refurbishment program and many of those units are coming back online every day. Even a 20% salvage rate is a very large number.
They are not very good units, but it may not matter. Something always beats nothing. And what the Ukrainians are down to is close to nothing.
Sure, new equipment will help the Ukraine forces. And they have managed to get quite a bit of replacement equipment from captured Russian depots.
What the Ukraine cannot get is more men. The Russian "strategy" appears to be about killing as many Ukraine men as possible until there is no military force left to oppose them. It is a war of annihilation. The Russians have enough men to be the last ones standing. Maybe.
Holding fast in trenches appears to be a bad strategy for the Ukraine forces. They get killed in artillery barrages and encircled by larger numbers of Russian forces. A war of movement is probably their best bet.
Bringing NATO forces directly into combat means the current World War 3 (by proxy) escalates to "tactical" nuclear weapons on the battlefield, and then shortly afterwards to the ICBM exchanges.
The Russian leadership seems to be under the delusion that they can win such an exchange. So also does the Western (American) leadership. Whichever group backs down first will be subsequently removed from power.
It is a system dynamic which makes for "interesting times".
OK Pootie pal thanks for the propaganda uplift. Please do not reply.
And you believe that?
When the Russians left Afghanistan and subsequently left Uzbekistan, they left all sorts of Migs at air bases there. Didn’t have mechanics to fix them nor fuel to put in them
It wasn’t until the US set up shop in uzbeksitan that they were able to cannibalize the planes to get some airworthy and get their hands on the fuel
To fly them.
So, yeah, I put about much faith in Jane’s Defense as I do in anything coming out of the Biden administration
I had a job doing security for guys teaching foreign nationals how to maintain F16s.
It ain’t like putting together a go cart with a lawnmower engine.
The Ukrainians are at a very severe disadvantage in this conflict. They cannot afford to believe their own (and our) propaganda.
Absolute realism is necessary for the Ukraine forces to prevail. The equipment that we are supposedly sending to them is at best "too little and too late". What they need to do is some variation of maneuver warfare. The World War 1 style of fixed entrenchments is the wrong strategy. It plays to the Russian overmatch in numbers of men and armored units.
What they should be doing (IMO) is quick withdrawal from Bakhmut, and simultaneous flanking attacks on the Russian pincher forces to the north. If successful, hold at the highway, then start a separate flanking attack on the Russian forces to the south.
If that is successful, then there will be an entrenched concentration of Russian troops retreating to Bakhmut with insufficient supplies for them to stay there. They can be destroyed by artillery crossfire from northwest and southwest, before they can be resupplied.
If you have some better ideas of how the Ukraine army can prevail, feel free to reply.
Ukraine’s military problem is that their command staffs are idiots and incompetent.
In the early part of the invasion, this Little Soviet Army Command would leave troops unarmed or lightly armed in some precarious position, then leave. Ukraine suffered needlessly heavy casualties because of them.
This may be changing and with the intense training given by the West, they may actually be able to overcome it.
The West can point a targets, but its command that makes the decisions - poor decisions have very bad results - like the stalling tactics around Bakhmut. Trouble is the UA is not good at attacks, and they also know there would be heavy casualties, which they cannot afford. Remember this is basically WWI, Part 2.
Hopefully WWII, Part 2 with mobile combined arms will commence in Spring. And no, they will not get enough modern tanks by then. So its a crap shoot if that tactic will work this Spring.
It has not helped either when the Economic Minister (who was Russian and worked for the Russians) forced fuel prices below market, pushing many wholesalers out of business and creating a shortage nationwide.
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