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Posted on 10/29/2022 5:54:43 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Decision Desk HQ — Townhall's official election results partner — released its latest projection for the midterm elections just more than one week away and it reflects the momentum for Republican candidates that Townhall has reported in the final weeks of the 2022 cycle.
Specifically, for the first time in 2022, DDHQ projects that Republicans will win majority control of the U.S. Senate on November 8th. The margin is narrow (for now) — 51-49 — but that would be enough to send Chuck Schumer and his fellow Dems back into the minority in Congress' upper chamber.
🚨 Republicans are favored to win control of the U.S. Senate for the first time since we released our 2022 Elections Forecast. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 50.4% chance of control, and our mean seat projection is 51 (R) and 49 (D).https://t.co/UHhMBpQqvL— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
According to the Decision Desk model, U.S. Senate races in Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are the only remaining toss ups while North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin are all "Lean" or "Likely" Republican races. Their model has run more than 14 million simulations to find possible election night outcomes, and it now has a 50.4 percent chance that Republicans come out of the midterms with control of the Senate.
Underscoring the momentum of an apparently growing red wave, the DDHQ model has shifted toward Republican control by 3.9 points in the last day, 6.3 percent in the last week, and 14.2 percent in the last month.
One of the biggest signs of GOP momentum is the Senate race in Pennsylvania, where Dr. Mehmet Oz has had the wind at his back in recent weeks, carrying him to a three-point polling lead over Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman. In that contest, DDHQ's model gives Oz a 53.1 percent chance of victory.
Mehmet Oz (R) is favored over John Fetterman (D) in Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race for the first time. Oz now has a 53.1% chance of winning, but the race remains a toss-up. https://t.co/zGQ6WQkiFL— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 28, 2022
Depending on how much the current momentum continues to build for the GOP by Election Day, and what the final 10 or so days of the midterm cycle turn into, there's a chance that Republicans could also add to DDHQ's current projection of a 51-49 GOP majority.
Their model ranks the Arizona and New Hampshire U.S. Senate races as just "Lean Dem," but recent polls in Arizona have showed Democrat incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly tied with GOP challenger Blake Masters, and Kari Lake's 11-point lead in the governor's race could lift Masters even further in a state-wide red wave of her own making.
And in New Hampshire, incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan is up just 3.4 points in her race against Republican challenger Don Bolduc.
Meanwhile on the other side of the Congressional races, DDHQ's model currently puts the odds of Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives away from Speaker Pelosi at 76.7 percent, forecasting a 230-205 GOP majority.
Who are these clowns? Trying to project election results more than a week before election day?
Early chickens being counted
So, if the GOP gets greater than a 51-49 margin in the Senate, they must have cheated, right?!
After six months of seeing only Mark Kelly signs, today I drove all over central and eastern Phoenix, and some Scottsdale, and the Anti-Kelly Pro-Blake Masters signs out out in SERIOUS force, both billboards (non LED, so they don’t disappear after six seconds) and LARGE planted signs (AZ is very lenient on placement).
Mostly emphasizing the open border, but also the votes Biden 94% and voted for 87,000 IRS agents.
He’s peaking at the right time.
I want a bigger majority in the Senate, just to keep Romney from having more ability to manipulate things.
I know he’s not the only one that does it, but he’s the GOP senator that I most want to see replaced when his time comes back around.
If they do, they better not elect the Rooster as majority leader, and you all know who I’m talking about.
Too much corruption..
He probably knows he'll be getting primaried in a couple of years anyhow and we all know he's a shameless bootlicker of the Dems.
So we need some insurance seats.
I will vote if I have to crawl to the voting place on my hands and knees through rain or snow.
I remember what the dems have done.
I don’t think he would do that. He actually believes himself to be the true republican, and Trump to be an outsider, pretending to be a Republican. In Romney’s way of thinking, Trump is the RINO.
51-49 means that the dems will only need one uber-RINO like Romney to vote with them on something and the resulting tie is broken by Kamala Harris. So if it’s 51-49 for all intents and purposes the dems will retain the Senate because the GPO will happily provide that one needed vote when the time comes.
I think he's right. The GOPe isn't of the base anymore, they consider the base to be useful idiots that they sucker into voting for but really dislike and are embarassed by. And the GOPe (a.k.a. the Bush wing of the party) is running it. Ergo anyone like Trump or who supports Trump is the actual Republican in Name Only.
“predict” would be a better term than “project” at this point. They can’t “project” anything until data from actual votes is received.
Pennsylvania Ping!
Please ping me with articles of interest.
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My personal prediction: Oz wins by AT LEAST 55 to 45.
DO NOT FORGET what they’ve done to you.
Do not let their sudden realization they are in bad shape politically excuse the last two-plus years of abuses.
They shut down your job.
Called many of you “non-essential.”
Closed your kids’ schools.
Expected you to live off $1200 for months while they got richer and richer.
Denied you the ability to be with your dying loved ones.
Then denied you the ability to give those loved ones a proper funeral.
While they let George Floyd have three.
While they went on vacation.
Visited family.
The hair salon.
They arrested you for paddle boarding by yourself.
They shut down the parks and the playgrounds.
They called you a grandma killer if you questioned them.
Suspended you from social media if you didn’t obey the narrative.
They called you domestic terrorists when you demanded your kids get the education your tax dollars paid for.
They mocked you when you demanded a return to normalcy for children.
They sneer at your concern over empty shelves and exploding grocery and utility bills.
They messed with supply chains and emptied store shelves, while the elites partied on yachts and Martha’s Vineyard.
They queered women’s sports and the military, and made the citizenry pay for it.
They sexualized schoolchildren, and persecuted parents at school board meetings.
They denied you the chance to try alternative treatments for COVID.
Then they fired you for not getting the vaccine.
When you stand up for your freedom, they call you Nazis and bigots.
Do not forget what they have done.
Do not forgive them.
They are hoping that, by November, you have forgotten the nightmareof the last 2+ years.
YOU struggle to make ends meet and the best the Biden administration can do is free crack pipes for “racial equity.”
This is on top of the woke, cancel culture bull they shove down our throats, the 2020 riots, being accused of racism and bigotry because we oppose their agenda.
As the election draws closer, they’ll pretend they didn’t do any of this.
They’ll gaslight us.
Project.
Blame the GOP (like they tried to when defunding the police went south).
DO NOT give them power.
They haven’t learned a damn thing from this.
You re-elect them, and you can expect masks and lockdowns and nonsense in perpetuity.
Not just for COVID, but for whatever else they deem a “public health emergency” (guns, climate change).
(Remember, they are the very same people who ignore a pubic health emergency aka AIDS.)
They will trample your rights.
VOTE THEM OUT.
NEVER FORGET.
REMEMBER…..in NOVEMBER!
The GOPe never was of the conservative base.
They’ve been around for decades, calling themselves the “New Republicans” back when Eisenhower was in office.
Decision Desk HQ — Townhall’s official election results partner …Same ones that partnered with Faux News two years ago?
“The margin is narrow (for now) — 51-49”
51 doesn’t do it. Odds are, Romney will defect and caucus with D’s if it’s 51. At 52, he stays R and we elect the majority leader and don’t have to worry about D’s eliminating the filibuster or packing the court for two more years.
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