Posted on 08/13/2022 8:51:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
The staggeringly high rate of Russian casualties in Ukraine means that President Vladimir V. Putin may not be able to achieve one of his key war objectives: seizing the entire eastern region of the country this year, officials in the Biden administration and military experts say.
With 500 Russian troops killed or wounded every day, according to the latest estimate by American intelligence and military officials, Russia’s war effort has decelerated to a grinding slog, the officials said.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
The best these clowns can do is make fun of The NY Times as a source.
400? 500? Anything over 50 a day is an unsustainable rate for an operation that size. That averages at 1-1.5% a month. For a modern army that is an incredibly bad number.
“Your buddy Strelkov/Girkin is having a big sad. LOL!”
Sort of like a “sad day” for you would be.
I’m aware of that assessment. I don’t agree with it.
Glad to know you are a troll. Paid or unpaid? How’s your boy “Beto” doing?
Nothing, troll. Strategically it’s important, but you neither know that or care.
Bob, Speedy is clearly a troll. He knows nothing and doesn’t care.
You know he can’t.
“So, when does Russia wrap this thing up and finally win?”
In its own sweet time. The reason Russian losses are actually quite low is because they have been slow and methodical, letting their artillery speak for them. Only after a position is crushed do they send in tanks and infantry. The tards here don’t know that most, but not all, of the infantry is DPR/LPR militia.
In one sense the war was won long ago - the metric? The UFA has had its ability to launch a sustained counterattack destroyed. Another metric? The UFA can’t stop the Russian advance through the UFA’s heavily fortified Donbass lines, or anywhere else. Now, some could claim that the Russians haven’t won because Zelensky/NATO haven’t surrendered, or because the Russians haven’t overrun all of Ukraine (which was not and is not the plan - they’ve mostly finished taking the ethnic Russian pasrts, which is what they want), or because the last UFA soldier hasn’t been killed. As for me, I think a win would be the Russians taking and holding what they want.
Even without active Russian offensive operations, the Ukrainians are inflicting substantial casualties on Russians every day using artillery. As in WW I and WW II, even static lines suffer casualties from routine shelling. And with HIMARS and NATO advice and guidance, the Ukrainians are now targeting Russian batteries, ammo and supply depots, active formations, and command elements deep behind Russian lines.
Slowly, Russia's artillery, logistics, and command and communications elements are being degraded. In time, with continued US and NATO support, the Ukrainians will weaken Russia's front lines enough that they can be breached in well-planned offensive operations. Unlike the Russian tactic of massive WW II style artillery barrages that clear a path, the Ukrainians are being equipped and taught how to break the Russian army so that it will collapse and flee when attacked because it has lost the ability to engage in sustained combat, as was done to the Iraqi military in the first Gulf War.
I know
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“Nevertheless, within the view of the US and NATO intel agencies, Russian casualty information leaks out at every level and is collected and analyzed. The casualty assessments being publicly reported are fairly credible, based as they are on this wide scale collaboration by US and allied intel agencies.”
Since, I guess, you want me to take your word for the above, what is your name and what is your position and access level?
Otherwise, my grandmother could write the same garbage.
Kill the RuZZian Invaders!
Russia is winning. Ukraine is the size of Texas, and Russia is four times more populous than Ukraine. Both nations began the war with almost peer quality assets and capabilities in ground, air defense and combat aviation. But this is an artillery war -- where Russia's overwhelming volume of artillery firepower over time is demolishing and demoralizing its weaker opponent. The longer this goes on, the worse for Ukraine.
Since 2014 we helped Ukraine design and construct a sophisticated defense-in-depth system along its Donbas front, with multiple lines of interlocking hard points and trench lines covered by supporting indirect fires. And we thought the Russians would be stupid enough to rush headlong into those defenses. But we were wrong. The Russians have been patient, using their overwhelming artillery fire to destroy each line and its supporting artillery before advancing with armor and infantry to clear and occupy new ground. It has been brutal and methodical. Time is on Russia's side.
The war in Ukraine is a shocking wake up call for Western politicians and military planners. We Americans haven't fought a near-peer opponent since Korea, and since Vietnam we've taken for granted that we will always enjoy total air superiority and unimpeded logistics with endless streams of food, fuel, high-tech weapons and ammunition. But this is a heavyweight fight where nobody wears sandals and both punch back with similar weapons. And here's the shocker: Ukraine alone has expended (or lost) more artillery ammunition in less than 6 months of combat than America and the entire West are capable of manufacturing in a year. "Industrial war" has returned with a vengeance -- after we spent the last four decades outsourcing our manufacturing base overseas.
The United States and its NATO subsidiary picked this fight, and now we are witnessing the systematic destruction of our most powerful client state, our best weaponry, and the economies of Western Europe. We sowed the wind...
This is as significant a breakthrough as Popasnaya. Peski was fortified for eight years: now that it has changed hands we are likely to see movement west of Peski.
Marinka - another of the big four - is apparently about 50% taken. This investment should allow the string of towns running west from Novomykhailivka to be infiltrated. Which - if it happens - will cut off Vuhledar (a very powerful fortification SW of Marinka) from supply.
That was about 22,585 killed or wounded every day.
Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe, after Russia. It supplies much of Europe with energy. I have no idea what Ukraine is "worth" to the Russians in numbers of casualties.
500 a day might be high. Or it could be low.
“Military officers of the Russian Spring”: ex-head of the DPR Defense Ministry Strelkov detained while trying to get to the front
Former Minister of Defense of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Igor Girkin (better known as Strelkov) was detained in Crimea while trying to get to the front as a volunteer. Reports about it Telegram-channel “Operation Z: Military commissars of the Russian Spring”.
According to preliminary information, Strelkov tried to get to the Kherson Front using a cover passport, which he used while working in the special services.
#ExMinister #Defense #DPR #detained #Crimea #front
“This, of course, is a unique story that has no analogues. Often people are sent to war bypassing legal grounds, they are given the opportunity to fight, atoning for the crimes committed. Here, by hook or by crook, a person tries to go to war, is ready to give for the sake of the Motherland and his principles, the most valuable thing is your life. But they don’t let him in, ”writes militiaman and volunteer A. Zhuchkovsky.
“Despite the fact that Strelkov did not set any political goals and was not going to cause confusion in Novorossia. All he wants is to take a personal part, even as an ordinary one, in the Russian national liberation war that he started.”
They write that Igor Ivanovich tried to get to the Kherson Front using a cover passport, which he used while serving in the special services.
You said Ukraine is the size of Texas. So, you expect then to take the whole country?
The most likely target border for the rest of Ukraine would - I guess - run broadly along the Dneiper river but with (at least) Kherson & Odessa incorporated into the Russian-aligned zone.
In the west: I’m not sure how far Poland will go with its irredentist claims on Lvov.
Impressive analysis by you.
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