Posted on 07/21/2022 8:46:31 AM PDT by lasereye
The United States is perilously close to falling into a recession, despite the reassurances of Federal Reserve officials, Wall Street economists and financial journalists. That’s not just an idle opinion; it’s what the data say.
Contrary to what you’ve heard, a recession — at least in the U.S. — is not defined by two straight quarters of falling gross domestic product (GDP). It’s more nuanced than that.
In practice, the NBER looks primarily at six monthly coincident indicators to judge whether the economy is expanding or contracting, whether a slump meets the test of depth, diffusion and duration.
The most important number is the growth of nonfarm payrolls, collected in a survey of businesses. Not only is employment inherently the most important gauge of the health of economy, but the payroll survey is considered to be the most statistically reliable of all the coincident indicators.
Other factors are also considered, such as growth of real personal incomes, industrial output and real sales by businesses.
These four indicators — payrolls, incomes, output and sales — comprise the index of coincident indicators, which is released by the private Conference Board each month. The coincident index rose 0.2% in June, the group reported Thursday.
Four of these six coincident indicators — real disposable incomes, real sales, civilian employment and monthly GDP — have declined over the past three months. (Caveat: I’m using a slightly different measure of incomes than the NBER has traditionally used, because the traditional measure is sending a misleading signal right now. But incomes are slowing quite a bit by either measure.)
A fifth indicator — industrial output of factories, mines and utilities — has been slowing and actually fell in the latest month.
Of the six indicators, only nonfarm payrolls have continued to grow at a decent rate.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Likely?
Hell, we are in it!........................
Ya think?
With the first two quarters of ‘22 showing negative growth, by definition we already are in recession.
A recession is pretty much a given. Just a question of how deep and how long.
Indeed.
“Unexpected”? No, “Likely”.
There was no nuance when we had that recession in 2020.
I suggest the WH have someone other than Karine to try and explain it.
there was no nuance in 2020 because unemployment hit 14.8%, and was over 10% for four months.
Except for Q3. Unemployment is starting to increase. Q2 GDP is in the bag. It will be negative, and that makes two consecutive negative quarters. That’s recession. We’re at the beginning of this. It will only get worse, especially after unemployment skyrockets. The Biden Administration and the Democrat Congress has done zero to help the economy. In fact, they only make it worse each passing day.
They (media/libs/progtards) know we are in a recession. They have no other play but to lie about it.
I think at this point their plan is to deny it until after a red wave in November, then as soon as the election is over admit there is a recession and blame it on the republicans who just won.
“Is likely”? Aren’t we already in a recession? Sure, Democrats and their media hacks will deny that until after the November elections, then blame it on Republicans, but by any viewpoint, we are in a recession now—The Biden/Harris Recession.
Our government numbers are frankly little better than China’s. Our government has continually redefined, modified, changed the algorithms for all the published government statistics. Fraudulently, they will not restate history based on these changes. The changes rarely are justified, except by those who want to publish numbers that “look” better.
For starters, look at Shadow Statistics. Look up which ever stat you are interested in but search for changes to the methodology. If you can be them, they are nonsense designed to hide information.
I feel great, trannies can make up their own gender, Jan 6th committee is doing the people’s business and protecting politicians from scary words, broadnoses are creating their own hegemony, and global warming is being addressed by having the world starve, swelter and freeze. Things are awesome...more gruel, please!
...and Trump was POTUS. The MSM was only going to blame him for everything, while giving a continuous pass to Biden.
The FED usually lowers rates to fight recession. Do you think they will?
But Jen Psaki told us the inflation was transitory and the seemingly troubling economic stuff was actually good for us in a hidden way because workers got to pressure bosses for more money and benefits. Or something. But Biden and Harris were on the case and help was on the way.
Does this mean she and the Biden Dems were lying to us?😰
You mean someone being rational weighs the possible outcomes and takes logical action-----something far beyond the current "experts'" realm.
Idea. Like Fauci and the CDC saying masks,no masks, shots will protect you with immunity, no shots will only reduce symptoms sometimes.....Fed could raise the rate, then lower it the next month, then raise it again, time after time. Echoing the Covid policy shifts.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.