"Ahead, Fudge Factor 9!"
Posted on 07/01/2022 7:18:12 AM PDT by xzins
The GDPNow gauge, a widely watched measurement from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, indicated Thursday that real gross domestic product shrank by 1.0% in the second quarter from April through June.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxbusiness.com ...
But bureaucrats doing the numbers lie and fudge and manipulate, so their final numbers could claim just about anything.
Traffic and road travel has fallen dramatically in my area
Recessional
Rudyard Kipling
God of our fathers, known of old,
Lord of our far-flung battle line,
Beneath whose awful hand we hold
Dominion over palm and pine —
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
The tumult and the shouting dies;
The Captains and the Kings depart:
Still stands Thine ancient sacrifice,
An humble and a contrite heart.
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
Far-called, our navies melt away;
On dune and headland sinks the fire:
Lo, all our pomp of yesterday
Is one with Nineveh and Tyre!
Judge of the Nations, spare us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
If, drunk with sight of power, we loose
Wild tongues that have not Thee in awe,
Such boastings as the Gentiles use,
Or lesser breeds without the Law—
Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,
Lest we forget—lest we forget!
For heathen heart that puts her trust
In reeking tube and iron shard,
All valiant dust that builds on dust,
And, guarding, calls not Thee to guard;
For frantic boast and foolish word—
Thy Mercy on Thy People, Lord!
If they are admitting -1% now, it is down more, they know it, and will revise to reality in a month
I predict that the Biden administration will finally take bold action here.
It will be some combination of:
A. Blame Russia even more.
B. Blame US companies even more.
C. Borrow and spend even more.
D. Use a more favorable method to calculate GDP.
Believe me that -1.0% is highly fudged... I suspect it’s likely closer to -2.0
The closer we get to the election the more pressure to get back to inflating the currency. Administration pressure on the Fed to cut rates will become unbearable.
All of the above, any you missed blame hard working Americans.
ADP says it will pause its private-sector employment report as it retools survey
Now whyever would they need to do that...? 🤔
Recession must be better than what Trump left us.
Biden is building back better after all.
Deep State can and does steal elections.
What pressure?
Also Trump supporters and them durned oil companies.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t put anything past anyone. But one possible reason… I’ve been following ADP for years…. And it is quite freq early, surely at least half the time, wildly off. Why anyone actually reports their number is beyond me
I wish we were having a normal recession. We have stagflation. The media needs to report this for what it is - the worst economic mess since the 1970s with a president who is more clueless than even Ford and Carter trying to set it right.
Deep State may be ensuring that if, by some miracle, Trump gets back in office, they’ll leave our ship of state a smoking, foundering wreck.
The divisions Deep State has sown will reap rewards for them then.
Unless we all hang together.
"Ahead, Fudge Factor 9!"
ADP has a simple goal in coming up with a retooled survey —
— that’s to make the ADP survey accurate for the first time in its history
compare the ADP private survey with the U.S. jobs report (no matter who is president) and ADP is almost always wildly off
My problem with them: The ADP Research Institute isn’t exactly transparent about their ownership structure and funding.
If it’s an offshoot of ADP, guess who the top three institutional ownership of ADP are.
See my reply #18.
ADP isn’t cranking this out.
The official GDP comes from Commerce in a couple of weeks but I expect that will be negative as well. The recession is here.
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