Posted on 06/08/2022 1:58:03 PM PDT by Mount Athos
Really? Even with the Ukrainian Army led by the Ghost of Kyiv on the outskirts of St Petersburg?
/s
The sanctions are really sanctions on Americans, not Russia.
“the amount of its oil pumped into the bloc has been increasing. It rose by 14% between January and April, from 750,000 to 857,000 barrels per day”
By “pumped”, they mean delivered by pipeline. That makes up only about 1/4 of normal Russian oil sales to the EU. And there were no sanctions on that, during this time - so some customers stocked up a bit, because it was no secret that sanctions were coming.
“The (newly enacted) embargo applies only to seaborne crude and petroleum products, for now covering just 75% of imports from Russia.”
That other 3/4s has declined already, more than pipeline shipments have increased, and the whole of that 3/4s is now slated to stop entirely in the next 7 months or so.
Total Russian oil sales to the EU run between 3-4 million barrels per day, about half of Russia’s total exports. Last week’s agreed upon reductions will put an end to the bulk of that, by Christmas.
How much are we bringing in the back door?
So? Who ever paid ANYTHING back to the US? That money and hundreds of billions to come, pi$$ed away as badly as the trillions in the ME the last 20 years.
It only took England 61 years
And the pipeline runs through Ukraine. What a mess.
Plus billions of dollars are being laundered thru Ukraine to politicians in europe and the USA. Raining money to those corrupt people while thousands of others are being killed or maimed.
and pumping more oil to China and India. And the price of oil has increased astronomically. It appears the Russians are making out like a Mexican bandito with these sanctions.
What pie in the sky fantasy are you living?
You think in 7 months, in the middle of winter, the EU is going to shut off 100% russian energy imports? Complete nonsense. Even if they did, India and China are already doubling/tripling their russian oil imports and have no reason, at all, to stop - quite the opposite since they are getting a 20% discount! So the russian oil will still be sold, and will still be used to fuel industry, produce foods, and generate wealth and prosperity, just not in the West. We’ll freeze, starve, and get reintroduced to the buggy for transport.
But go ahead and enjoy your rolling blackouts and solar ovens.
One more tidbit - very few countries, and not even all of the soft western democracies, have signed onto the sanctions. There is no shortage of markets for russian energy.
And before those who would like to reply FREAK OUT, my comments are not aligned with any political side. This is just reality, and even if US pretends it doesn’t exit, the world is chock full of reality.
“You think in 7 months, in the middle of winter, the EU is going to shut off 100% russian energy imports?”
No. I don’t.
I do think the there will be very significant reductions by then. The EU has announced their goals in the sixth sanctions package - 2/3rds of the former gas imports, and 90% of the former oil imports by around the end of this year.
They analyzed the feasibility of those goals, and coordinated the funding required to meet them, before agreeing to them and announcing them. If they don’t meet them, they will still make substantial progress toward them.
They intend to continue until they are totally free of dependence on Russian energy imports - expected to be a 24-30 month program (but mostly front-loaded this year).
The Saudis alone are on a newly announced ramp up to produce 1.3 million barrels per day more by the end of the year. The UAE and Iraq are expected to announce their increases by the next OPEC meeting. Europe had been importing over 3 million bpd from Russia, but that has already declined a bit since the war started.
The EU objectives are twofold - protect themselves from future Russian energy extortion, and deny Putin’s Russia revenue.
To deny revenue, they have secondary sanctions being coordinated, to give China and India persuasive reasons to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Those are not envisioned to start until next year, after Europe has substantially reduced its own purchases from Russia. China and India are already aware of this, so they have time to prepare. They are free to fill their reserves now at a discount, which China in particular is doing.
The crashing of Russian exports is coming, it is just a necessarily slow moving transition.
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