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To: BeauBo

What pie in the sky fantasy are you living?

You think in 7 months, in the middle of winter, the EU is going to shut off 100% russian energy imports? Complete nonsense. Even if they did, India and China are already doubling/tripling their russian oil imports and have no reason, at all, to stop - quite the opposite since they are getting a 20% discount! So the russian oil will still be sold, and will still be used to fuel industry, produce foods, and generate wealth and prosperity, just not in the West. We’ll freeze, starve, and get reintroduced to the buggy for transport.

But go ahead and enjoy your rolling blackouts and solar ovens.


32 posted on 06/09/2022 11:22:26 AM PDT by TonyinLA ( I don't have sufficient information to make an informed opinion said no lefty ever.)
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To: TonyinLA

One more tidbit - very few countries, and not even all of the soft western democracies, have signed onto the sanctions. There is no shortage of markets for russian energy.


33 posted on 06/09/2022 11:25:34 AM PDT by TonyinLA ( I don't have sufficient information to make an informed opinion said no lefty ever.)
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To: TonyinLA

“You think in 7 months, in the middle of winter, the EU is going to shut off 100% russian energy imports?”

No. I don’t.

I do think the there will be very significant reductions by then. The EU has announced their goals in the sixth sanctions package - 2/3rds of the former gas imports, and 90% of the former oil imports by around the end of this year.

They analyzed the feasibility of those goals, and coordinated the funding required to meet them, before agreeing to them and announcing them. If they don’t meet them, they will still make substantial progress toward them.

They intend to continue until they are totally free of dependence on Russian energy imports - expected to be a 24-30 month program (but mostly front-loaded this year).

The Saudis alone are on a newly announced ramp up to produce 1.3 million barrels per day more by the end of the year. The UAE and Iraq are expected to announce their increases by the next OPEC meeting. Europe had been importing over 3 million bpd from Russia, but that has already declined a bit since the war started.

The EU objectives are twofold - protect themselves from future Russian energy extortion, and deny Putin’s Russia revenue.

To deny revenue, they have secondary sanctions being coordinated, to give China and India persuasive reasons to stop buying Russian oil and gas. Those are not envisioned to start until next year, after Europe has substantially reduced its own purchases from Russia. China and India are already aware of this, so they have time to prepare. They are free to fill their reserves now at a discount, which China in particular is doing.

The crashing of Russian exports is coming, it is just a necessarily slow moving transition.


35 posted on 06/09/2022 3:04:26 PM PDT by BeauBo
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