Posted on 06/04/2022 4:27:48 PM PDT by EBH
History can be a powerful tool, particularly in a high-inflation environment like this one in which no suitable economic model seems to apply.
Inflation — running at 8.3% as of April, near a four-decade high — has stayed stubbornly persistent for a full year to the surprise of virtually everyone who tracks it. Now there’s a risk that price gains could take much longer than expected to fall back down, even when the Federal Reserve is aggressively hiking interest rates.
That risk was highlighted on Thursday by BofA Securities strategists Vadim Iaralov, Howard Du and others, who point to the period between 1974 and 1988 as the most comparable time in which the annual headline U.S. consumer-price index was rising at a pace similar to the U.S.’s pandemic era of 2019-2022.
In 1980, with the Fed’s main policy rate target already above 10% for most of that year, the annual headline CPI, also in double digits, still did not fall back below 3% after 36 months “even on the back of unprecedented rate hikes enacted by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker,” they said.
This was also the case during the pre-Volcker years, when the Fed was led by Arthur Burns and G. William Miller. In July 1973, when the annual CPI rate was hovering near 6% but poised to keep climbing, a Burns-led Fed pushed the fed-funds rate above 10%, FactSet data shows. Policy makers brought interest rates down to 9% for six months, then pushed them back up again to 10% or higher through mid-1974. But the CPI rate didn’t fall back below 6% until the second half of 1976.
Under Miller’s short term from 1978 to 1979, inflation came roaring back until it was in the double digits again.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Duh! All I have is a big bucket of “I told you so!”
Yeah, but interest rates go up above 10%, interest rates are above 10%.
“To the surprise of everyone who tracks it?”
I doubt it surprises anyone with an operating brain. Shut down the economy, print money to close the gap, continue to print money so you can grow your budgets, explicitly drive up energy prices, pay people to stay away from work, and you’ll get inflation like we’ve never seen before in this country.
I said earlier this week, this is not normal inflation as we normally experience it. It is a supply-side issue. This makes everything the Fed is doing as incorrect.
Was Biden our proverbial Japanese real estate bubble bursting?
In The New World Order there will be no money , your 100 credits will be deposited in your account every month if you were a good slave
Occasionally I will get a caramel iced coffee at McDs, (close..) today it was a quarter more, overnight.
And the occupation is just getting started. They are not even halfway through their first term. Hard to believe but the occupiers have been in the White house only a year and 5 months.
Trump could bring it all down within a year. fix supply chain and open up oil reserves and drilling. But the demonrats want you to jut accept the new normal.
Raising interests rates will never correct the inflation caused by the assault on the fossil fuel industry and the massive dollar printing. The economy is contracting and paper dollars are chasing what is available.
and the democrats will control the house/senate again , it seams to always happen
To get it under control, encourage energy projects, clear away the regulatory hurdles, issue the permits. Get out of the way.
The prices will react almost immediately even if the new oil won’t be on-line for a few months. Lower energy costs will ripple through the economy quickly, as will the major increase in employment.
Encourage, arm twist, incentivize, industries that have left the country to return. Penalize any industry that is located in China. Moving industries home will have a number of benefits but keeping the dollars circulating here is one of them.
Dollars don’t represent gold but they do represent real goods... at least they do when you aren’t paying people to not produce. The more industry and production you repatriate, and the more you get people back into the work force, the stronger the dollar.
And for sure, stop printing money.
I know this regime has no interest in doing any of this. There used to be someone who did get it.
Well, I am also watching events happening globally. Could America have avoided much of this?
Yes, in fact, we could have mitigated much of it for ourselves and our allies.
This is beyond incompetence, it is on purpose. There is no excuse. Now we will understand what BBB meant. It wasn’t meant for the post-covid recovery. It was meant for the post global collapse.
Will the free people of the world rebel? Are they even able to rebel?
Time will tell.
This current inflation is TRANSITORY.
This current president is TRANSITORY.
As soon as Trump or DeSantis becomes president the inflation will dissolve like a snowball in July.
Yes. If Biden hasn’t managed to start a nuclear war by then.
“History can be a powerful tool, particularly in a high-inflation environment like this one in which no suitable economic model seems to apply. Inflation — running at 8.3% as of April, near a four-decade high — has stayed stubbornly persistent for a full year to the surprise of virtually everyone who tracks it.”
Two sentences and three BIG lies.
I learned that during the 2008 real-estate/housing loan crisis when the Congressional Democrapts changed the rules and wiped out half of my 401K. It took 10 years to regain what I lost in the year immediately afterward.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.