So called experts at it again.
We know the Russians can take territory. What about holding and administering it?
CC
Russia already won and I want our $40bn back.
The Russian Army is to the point they are asking veterans age 40 plus to re-up, and after 30 days of training, go to the front lines. There is no formal age limit to enlistment. After 1000+ tanks have been lost in Ukraine the Russian Army is taking WWII era tanks out of mothballs.
Ukraine ordered universal conscription as soon as Russia invaded. Fresh troops are due within the fortnight and Western weapons are about to flood Ukraine.
Total victory (including Crimea) for Ukraine is possible as long as weapons and aid continue to flow.
Looks like the the political establishment is trying to prepare the neocons and p4ssy hat wearers for defeat against Russia! Russia! Russia! Time to report for your re-programming! The next issue is Guns! Guns! Guns! in the hands of white supremacists! Forget about inflation. Forget about gas prices. Forget about the stolen election.
I don’t share the authors opinion, although they would be right 1/4 of the time. There are really four possible outcomes now. Never ending war and conflict, to be re-ignited later, Russian victory, Ukraine victory, global thermonuclear war.
Right now, the small Gaines the Russians have made, and with the equipment stocks before the war I believe that 20% is small, I don’t see it as a Russian victory. Further, I don’t see it as pyrrhic if they win at this point. Ukraine will have millions of trained and equipped soldiers soon. The tide of battle, especially in winter, could easily swing. Russia idea of victory is to take land, but that will result in a reigniting later, so it’s not really victory. Global thermal nuclear war is routinely sponsored by Russian media and now
Statesmen.
When I put all the pieces together, especially the threats of nuclear launches and Putin living in a bunker, the mind of the enemy is that they are not winning. If they were confident of victory, they would not threaten nuclear weapons. It’s illogical. Ergo, Russia believes it in a very bad place, despite the territorial gains. I agree with the Russians on this. The clock is ticking towards fall and winter, and they don’t seem to have a plan.
Yes, but for months now we have been told the Russians were losing everything.
Now the truth slowly emerges. Even to admit that Russia purposefully withdrew from attacking Kiev because it wasn’t central to Russian interests.
The west and the lies make us look really bad. So much of this Ukraine hype came from central casting and were productions made for western media propaganda.
Honest assessment would be so much better, but the West now operates by not winning but making people think they are winning. Each time they do this, the truth smacks them in the face until the next time they create a mess.
- The Deep State ran a couple of coups that ousted democratically elected governments in Ukraine and installed extreme anti Russian governments.
- Those governments did things like incorporate out and open Nazis into the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as banning Russian which half the country speaks, as an official language.
- When the ethnically Russian portions of eastern Ukraine objected to all of this and demanded autonomy from the dictates of Kiev, the Kiev government attacked them. It was forced to agree to grant autonomy to them in the Minsk agreement but then immediately ignored what it had agreed to and kept right on attacking them for years. They killed about 14,000 people in the process.
- Ukraine is not a democracy. Political opponents are jailed. Opposition media is banned. Ukraine is also one of the most corrupt countries on earth.
- Russia has been winning the war from the start. Russia was always going to win the war.
- the western sanctions on Russia have hurt Western countries which need Russian commodities, far more than they've hurt Russia.
- the $40 billion+ of US taxpayer money the US government gave to Ukraine was mostly a payoff for Deep State/Democrat party supporters.
- This whole thing...the Deep State meddling in Ukraine starting about 20 years ago and all that has happened since was one of the stupidest possible foreign policy decisions the incompetent morons in the Deep State have ever undertaken. Aside from wasting a lot of US taxpayer money and harming Western economies and getting a lot of Ukrainians killed, they've also managed to push Russia right into China's arms. China is the real enemy for those keeping score at home. China used to be very vulnerable to a naval blockade of its fuel imports from the Middle East. Now, Russian oil and natural gas and grain and fertilizer and lots of other commodities will primarily supply China. Now the US Navy will not be able to blockade that flow of resources like they could have before.
This has been an utter and complete disaster for America any way you slice it.
That's the unpalatable truth.
Do I even need to add that the theft of the 2020 election was due in large part to the Deep State's certainty that Trump would not go along with their longstanding plan for an anti Russia war in Ukraine or have you figured that out already?
——But it will be a victory nonetheless——
No, no victory because there are two important elements other than occupation of territory
The first is time during which the West that has now fully turned on Russia supplies weapons and training that will produce a reverse
The second is that while gaining some territory that was Ukraine, Putin has lost Russia. That which made Russia possible is now mostly gone. The various sanctions and isolation and loss of oil sales effectively make Russia impossible. Russia which some rank as #11 after Brazil and Italy will sink to the 20’s after Taiwan and Poland.
The thought above is before reparations are applied. After the reparations, Russia will be destitute for at least ten years.
Today is the 100th day of the Russian 3-day operation to conquer Ukraine.
The military situation in Ukraine, as seen by an ex-member of the Swiss strategic intelligence
I could have almost written this. He even uses some of the same words and arguments I have in my comments.
The realpolitik of this war for the US and Western Europe is to wear down Russia so they cannot engage in this kind of expansionist adventure again for a long time. Making it expensive for them is in Ukraine’s long term interest as well.
It’s not impossible that Russia will have another internal collapse like it did in WWI. Russia entered WWI with the largest standing army in Europe. It lost ground in the Northeast to the Germans in the Baltics and Poland. It made gains against the Habsburgs in Galicia. Russia suffered tremendous losses, which eventually resulted in the Bolshevik Revolution. That could happen again.
Reports are that Russian troops are refusing to fight, and Russian gains recently are due to extensive rocket and artillery bombardments from long range. Essentially, the recent Russian advance in the Donbas, which are quite limited, have resulted from long range artillery strikes to rubble places. Don’t know if that can continue if the Ukies are given better long range artillery and rockets to counter that tactic. Also, many Russian troops are now free to return to Russia, since no war was declared and their 90 day contracts are expiring. Time could be on the Ukrainian’s side if the West continues to support them.
And, none of this would have happened if BeijingBiden and the other globalist elite parasites hadn’t persuaded Zelynskyy to betray his agreement to the Minsk agreement — which ceded the Donbas states to Russia — as their citizens asked.
I disagree with this assessment.
If Ukraine can continue of constant warfare within it’s 2014 boundary, Russia will have to continued to deploy troops and treasure to maintain their “gains”. Those gains will not be productive economically and will be a drain on the already fragile Russian economy.
Ukraine only has to harass, Russia has to control.
Russia is already starting to default on it’s obligations. Its economic collapse will take about 6 months. Ukraine just needs to hold out. Once the collapse takes place, Russia will be internally forced to withdraw troops.