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I don’t share the authors opinion, although they would be right 1/4 of the time. There are really four possible outcomes now. Never ending war and conflict, to be re-ignited later, Russian victory, Ukraine victory, global thermonuclear war.

Right now, the small Gaines the Russians have made, and with the equipment stocks before the war I believe that 20% is small, I don’t see it as a Russian victory. Further, I don’t see it as pyrrhic if they win at this point. Ukraine will have millions of trained and equipped soldiers soon. The tide of battle, especially in winter, could easily swing. Russia idea of victory is to take land, but that will result in a reigniting later, so it’s not really victory. Global thermal nuclear war is routinely sponsored by Russian media and now
Statesmen.

When I put all the pieces together, especially the threats of nuclear launches and Putin living in a bunker, the mind of the enemy is that they are not winning. If they were confident of victory, they would not threaten nuclear weapons. It’s illogical. Ergo, Russia believes it in a very bad place, despite the territorial gains. I agree with the Russians on this. The clock is ticking towards fall and winter, and they don’t seem to have a plan.

I suspect the Russians were surprised at the level of resistance in Ukraine.

The piano player was not very popular, had been banning his opposition, trying to limit or remove Russian cultural influences, and being just an a$$.

Now, 100 days later, they are in a long bloody fight that they probably won’t lose, but are burned out and broken down. Also, Belarus is stepping back, Finland and Sweden want to join NATO, and Poland is, well honestly being Poland so no change there.

What was supposed to be a repeat of Desert Storm I has become a mess. Russia slapped the Tar Baby, and is realizing that no matter what happens now there is a big mess.

Russia is going to win tactically. The question is are they going to lose strategically

Ukraine will have millions of trained and equipped soldiers soon. The tide of battle, especially in winter, could easily swing. Russia idea of victory is to take land, but that will result in a reigniting later, so it’s not really victory.

Depends on whether Russia is going to fully mobilize.

If not, they need to sue for peace. International peacekeepers in Lutansk and Donbass. Ukranian recognization of Crimea as a province in the Russian Federation.