Posted on 05/11/2022 9:48:57 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Economist Ezra Solomon once observed that the “only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Historically, economists have had a terrible track record when it comes to making growth forecasts.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) during the 2007-2016 period had a tendency to persistently overestimate future GDP growth. After correcting for this tendency in the recent past, Fed officials found themselves making a new set of costly forecasting errors during the past year. They persistently underestimated inflation.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Technically it can be hard to have a recession as defined by GDP not growing for 6 months. But that’s because about 1/3rd of GDP is calculated from gubment spending. As long as gubment spending keeps increasing, GDP keeps going up even if everybody is in soup lines.
Didn’t somebody say, “It’s only a recession if you are out of work?”
It is already here. The only reason they want to say 12-18 months is so that they can blame on the Republicans winning in November.
It’s a recession if your neighbor is out of work.
It’s a depression when you are.
I think it was Rush that said it
Beat me. I came here to write this.
Not if “we” can preempt it with a full blown war!
The only way to stop inflation is to stop excessive Government Spending, stop the quantitative easing by the Fed and raise interest rates to the point it creates a recession.
How likely are those things to happen, it’s an election year and if it happens it will be after November.
Precisely
Every time the Fed has raised rates to combat inflation, there has been a recession.
The gaslight is blinding.
Spot on. This stuff isn’t “easy” but it’s also not really mysterious. Steps could be taken. But there is just about no chance that anything useful will be done, at least in the next 6 months.
It will be a transitory great depression 2.0
Now let me think. What happened between 2007 and 2016, and why would the Fed want to present a rosy picture during that time span?
They won’t allow a recession with a Democrat president...or at least they won’t blame it on him.
Agreed, and the next question is will we be able to recover. With power plants getting decommissioned all over, don’t see a recovery happening along with rolling blackouts headed our way.
This administration can’t deal with it. It will take the hard work of smart people. Interest rates will have to shoot up, oil and gas exploration will have to go off the hook and ramp up with very low hurdles, and massive leasing and permits thrown at the E&P companies. Huge cutbacks in government spending, dump the Dept. of Ed, and about 10 other garbage government entities. Massive tax cuts to businesses and zero taxes on income for citizens.
Ramp up deportations, cut the printing of money, and if you started tomorrow with all of it you’d still take 5+ years to get it under control.
Yep; and I’ve got a 3-letter word for economists who wait for some magic numbers to help them deem it a recession:
DUH!
Its really no big secret- if the fed continues raising rates rapidly, credit dries up, consumer debt spendings withers, profits suffer... you get a recession, probably less than a year. If they dont self inflict a recession we get hyperinflation....so Biden has painted himself intoa corner here waiting so long to act...gaslighting folks into thinking what came, wasnt coming...lying when it got here about how long it would be here and now blatantly lying about why it happened in the first place. No one buys what these idiots are selling at this point.
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