Posted on 04/15/2022 2:23:06 PM PDT by Zhang Fei
Nothing was more predictable about this most predictable of wars than the certain failure of Putin’s Coup de Main invasion to seize Kyiv and conquer Ukraine in one fell swoop. And yet its success was confidently predicted by Russia’s FSB domestic security service, which, instead of the SVR foreign intelligence, was given the task of sustaining the fiction that Ukraine is Russian.
Perhaps it is not strange that Putin, himself a former FSB officer, did not question this reckless optimism. He knew that the CIA fully agreed with the FSB estimate, as did the German Bundesnachrichtendienst (BDN) and the French Direction du Renseignement Militaire (DRM).
The latter induced President Emmanuel Macron to rush to Moscow and Kyiv to avert Ukraine’s imminent downfall by offering last-minute concessions to Putin. But the BND’s error had far graver consequences: told that it was impossible to stop Russia’s swift conquest, German chancellor Olaf Scholz refused to send weapons to Ukraine, refused to allow Estonia to send 122mm howitzers originally received from Germany, refused to rule out restricting its use of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, and refused to allocate funds to rehabilitate Germany’s sadly diminished armed forces. Since Putin is especially attentive to German politics, this served as a strong green light for his war.
As for the CIA’s totally wrong assessment, it had still more serious consequences. Acting under the impression that the Russians would swiftly conquer Ukraine, the White House chose to evacuate the US Embassy in Kyiv instead of rushing in weapons that would only become Russia’s booty. The demoralising effect was amplified as other Western diplomats followed suit and fled.
The failure to dissuade Putin, then, was an intelligence failure — but this is something that only requires the resolve of 51 Senators and one President to fix.
(Excerpt) Read more at unherd.com ...
Ukraine ping
The issue for Putin wasn’t that his men gave the green light, from a feasibility standpoint - it’s that the West’s security establishment gave him the go-ahead, publicly, and undoubtedly in private through the people he has suborned. A quick victory was assured and the presence of heavily armed Russian troops was probably overkill, the West said in not so many words. If Putin distrusted his subordinates, surely he could trust the assessments of so many Western commanders who had recently been involved in the coalition’s campaigns in Iraq and/or Afghanistan.
The war is over? I must have missed the memo. 🤣
Thanks. Insightful.
Putin is a dictator for the past 20 years. Hubris got to him.
Hasn’t failed yet.
It’s an old story but when the hound chases the rabbit, the dog is running for his lunch; the rabbit is running for his life. Bet on the rabbit.
At least some military leaders not on board.
At least some troops, not on board.
The Ukrainians, thought to be flower bearers... not on board.
The international community, not on board.
The Ukrainians are a resourceful people.
Well Vlad, what could possibly go wrong?
Putin launched the invasion with equipment and tactics that were perfect for winning any war waged in 1900 or earlier.
“Thanks. Insightful.”
Yes me too, always nice to read a bit different perspective.
Success is all about motivation !
The American “intelligence community” is anything but. It’s a rude, expensive, useless joke. They spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year. And for what?
Supposedly our satellites can tell us how big a Russian soldier’s tallywhacker is when he dismounts an APC to take a leak. But ask them where a Russian division is and it’s “we can’t say for sure.” Ask them if the biggest warship in the Black Sea is operational or not and it’s “we don’t know”.
They can supposedly listen to every single phone call and read every single text in America but they can’t tell us what the hell is going on right next to a NATO country whose neighbor is at war with Russia.
Useless. No, worse than useless. They should all be fired and the leadership prosecuted for malfeasance.
L
I’ll bet the problem has been that they didn’t spend enough attention to logistics. I think of the prep for the D-Day invasion.
What? No one thought that Russia would do this poorly before they invaded. Not even Edward Luttak. What a BS article.
“Intelligence” in this country has been sorely lacking.
Who said he failed?
From day one his objective was to take Eastern Ukraine, the ethnic Russian and industrial areas, not all of it.
From day one his goal was to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO, which was the impitus for this war.
Last I checked - Russia is sitting on East Ukraine and they aren’t a NATO member.
When all of this started, this was foreseeable. When it’s over, we’ll declare victory. Our media is able to turn defeat into victory.
It is amazing that, considering the incredible amounts of money that is spent on “intelligence”,we have been so wildly wrong so many times recently.
Perhaps too much is spent looking for white supremacists under every rock?
This is a serious question. What are we getting for our money?
RE: Why Putin’s invasion failed
Don’t get me wrong, I want Putin’s invasion to fail, but saying at this time that he has failed is PREMATURE.
LET’S ADMIT OUR LIMITATIONS - WE DON’T KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN. YET.
Luttwak is a dinosaur who fails to grasp what this military campaign is about.
You wouldn’t want your dental surgery to be performed by your account. You wouldn’t want your car engine repaired by your florist. So unless you were totally contemptuous of your military, why would you task your spies to plan and execute a military invasion?
In other words, having been KGB or FSB his entire life, Putin has zero idea how a military functions. Imagine Nancy Pelosi putting on a South American *Generalissimo* uniform, covered with decorative decorations, declaring that she is now in charge of the US Army, and ordering them to immediately invade Canada.
Using green recruits. With scrounged National Guard equipment. And with Democrat precinct committee chairmen as high ranking officers, with Antifa and BLM rioters as low ranking officers.
She would probably order the conquest of Canada, all of it, on the first day of winter, with whatever food and fuel they could scrounge or steal from the Canadians.
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