Clown governors in the stupid party.
Providing cover for massive vote fraud.
Dems have done a great job redistricting (aka Gerrymandering).
Silver seems to assume however, that Dems are going to keep all their current seats and add some with redistricting. If this turns out to be a ‘wave’ election (red wave) then a lot of Dem leaning seats will go Republican.
The fix begins with Nate Silver’s “statistical analysis” saying it’s going to happen.
The Uniparty relies on heads I win, tails you lose elections.
He expects them to hold serve and flip a handful as well. Dude is smoking crack or knows the fix is in. Could be both.
Forget redistricting. Thousands of ballot drop boxes all across the fruited plain will be stuffed in the dead of night, and Dominion software updated for the Congressional races.
GOP will twiddle its collective thumbs as usual.
SO, if redistricting provided for more “blue” district thru-out the US and, come election time, these districts actually vote “blue” candidates.
How many residents ACTUALLY voted?
Is the outcome just assumed and the local precinct captains just \make it so\?
And, does this benefit mail-in voting (adjudication and tabulation)?
I guess old Nate is factoring vote fraud. If so, he’s probably correct.
The democraps suffered no consequences for blatantly stealing an election. The 2020 election will see them gain all over the country.
The democraps suffered no consequences for blatantly stealing an election. The 2022 election will see them gain all over the country.
I think he’s right, unfortunately. People here are convinced that we’ll get the majority, nothing to worry about, blah, blah…
But between the fact that way too many people actually will vote for the Dems because they somehow think they’ll get freebies, that there will be massive cheating, especially if they rev up the covid restrictions again, and that we’ve practically been redistributed into permanent loser status, I think our chances are pretty slim. But they do exist.
This means that we have to work really hard to get out the vote, quit our insane shoot-yourself-in-the-foot arguing, and remember our principles and not personalities.
If this happens, even though it’s already underway, this country is done. They will never be able to undo the gerrymandering that’s been done. Once Dems get control of the gerrymandering in some other states, they’ll be able to control Congress for a long, long time.
I think people need to understand that gerry mandering can absolutely allow 25-30% of the people in the country to elect more than 50% of the representatives.
It is just a math problem.
The House is a lot harder, you have to be a bit of a politics nerd to really do it right.
But I did predict D+40 for 2018, took a lot of abuse and suggestions for meds for my psychosis around here - and I was exactly right.
The GOP backers are getting high off of polls. And if the GOP were going to run on a pure MAGA platform and contest all 435 races, then, yes, they would crush it.
But what they want to do, and probably are going to do is run 435 candidates who they believe can sell the Bush shit sandwich as a nutritious meal for America - and if they do that, I can easily see D+15.
You can't beat something with nothing.
If Americans don’t sweep the left out of power completely this November, we are truly lost as a country.
I can’t imagine this will happen, but we seem to shoot ourselves in the foot more often than not...
Just because Nate Silver doesn’t know how to interpret polls, doesn’t necessarily mean he doesn’t know about re-districting.
The general tendency is for Rs to gain from re-apportionment and Ds to gain from re-districting. So, by focusing on the latter, to the exclusion of the former, you are slanting your analysis.
Then, Silver’s metric is very informative. A district might be Plus 3 Democrat in Presidential elections, and Plus 2 Republican is Congressional elections. Congressional candidates have some leeway in presenting themselves to voters.
Finally, drawing districts that lean Democrat might be stupid in a Republican Wave year. If you get greedy, you might lose big. Remember the old saying, thin pigs get fed. Fat pigs get slaughtered. Don’t be greedy!
bite me Nate
How do we catch and prove ballot mules were used, if they leave their cell phones at home this time?
Bottom line - Silver predicts against the grain that the Dems will actually WIN the November House elections.
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And he gets paid real money for this type of prediction?
In America you have two extremes, hard core left and hard core right with the majority in the middle.
It is the majority in the middle that decide elections.
The Democrats, the party in power have not had a good two years and the current year leading up to 2022 is not going to get better for them.
They took President Trump’s booming economy, one that had us energy independent, full employment, no wars, secure southern border and destroyed it all.
Even if the Democrats and media want to blame President Trump the American voters always punish the party in power.
The Democrats are not going to keep control of the house or the senate.