Dems have done a great job redistricting (aka Gerrymandering).
Silver seems to assume however, that Dems are going to keep all their current seats and add some with redistricting. If this turns out to be a ‘wave’ election (red wave) then a lot of Dem leaning seats will go Republican.
agreed....I think any incumbent dem anywhere that won their seat by less than 5% is toast, less than 10% is in trouble...
According to polls, the GOP should gain.
Historically the party in the White House loses seats in mid term elections. Biden has some of the lowest approval ratings of any president in history at this point in his term in office.
Has Nate Silver been correct in previous predictions? Is he a liberal shill? What’s his track record? Because he’s predicting events which very few others agree with.
Agreed. It’s a very curious article. Redistricitng has always been part of the calculus but the flipping of seats in purple, even a few blue, districts is where the action is going to be
“Silver seems to assume however, that Dems are going to keep all their current seats and add some with redistricting. “
Good, we want them to assume that.
Silver isn’t even saying that.
This analysis was solely about redistricting versus the national average.
The OP was too stupid to:
1: not understand that Silver was saying a max of four seats compared to the 2010 maps (which have a GOP bias.
2: not take into account the map DeSantis just powered through in Florida.
3: have nothing to do with a prediction on the outcome of the elections.